Favorite Son Has a Good Shot in South, but He’s No Shoo-In

Ask John Edwards, the first-term senator from North Carolina, how he will fare in primaries in Missouri, Oklahoma or four other states up for grabs Tuesday and you won’t get an answer. Expectations, he says, are set by others.

Ask him how he’ll do here in South Carolina, though, and he’s unequivocal: “I expect to win,” says Edwards, who was born 50 years ago in Seneca, a small mill town tucked into the state’s western corner.

After a yearlong campaign that has taken him from the rural reaches of Iowa to down-on-their-luck farm towns along South Carolina’s rambling Great and Little Pee Dee rivers, Tuesday’s vote could well determine how much further Edwards can go in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

By promising to win here, Edwards has made South Carolina a proving ground for another pledge -- that he will beat President Bush in the South, a boast that would ring hollow if he loses to a fellow Democrat in his home state.

Yet even winning here might not be enough.

“I don’t see how he could continue or be able to raise serious cash if he doesn’t just win South Carolina, but win it decisively,” said Earl Black, a political analyst and professor at Rice University in Houston. “I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Edwards loses South Carolina. It’s going to be hard to beat somebody who won as decisively as Kerry did in New Hampshire.”

If Edwards does win, his next best shot for victories will be on Feb. 10 in Virginia and Tennessee -- where, as a Southerner, he is expected to get a sympathetic look. But if Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry picks up more momentum this week, or if Howard Dean’s campaign revives and the former Vermont governor emerges as the top challenger to Kerry, Edwards’ chances would dim.

Edwards has been campaigning hard, crisscrossing the state even as he makes trips -- as he did Saturday -- to New Mexico, Oklahoma and Missouri. Recent polls, including one by The Times, show Edwards with a comfortable lead in his birthplace, although Kerry has been picking up support. Interest in the Rev. Al Sharpton, once a factor here, has faded, and nearly one in four voters remains undecided.

But analysts say Edwards isn’t likely to win any of the other six contests around the country Tuesday, with the possible exception of Oklahoma. If he is not able to recapture the magic that won him a surprise second-place showing in Iowa’s caucuses two weeks ago, Edwards will be confronted with serious questions about whether his mix of populist campaign themes and moderate politics can work on a national scale.

“I just don’t think he has been a good fit for these times, for the issues of the day,” said Hastings Wyman, editor of the Southern Political Report, a Washington-based biweekly newsletter. He believes there still could be a surprise finish in South Carolina. “He has got to win South Carolina and I think he has a shot there, but I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion.”

Edwards insisted again Sunday that he was running a national campaign and was confident that a victory in South Carolina would narrow the race, with him as a survivor. That, his aides have said, is how they hope the race will progress. “If I win here on Tuesday, I think the fact of the matter is we’ll probably be down to a two-man race,” Edwards said after rallying supporters at the Westside Cafe in Florence. “We’ve been preparing for this for a long time.”

While the Democrats might not be able to win the White House without winning in parts of the South, Edwards probably can’t take the nomination without winning some primaries in the North and the West, said William G. Mayer, a political analyst at Northeastern University in Boston.

Mayer pointed out that Bill Clinton built national momentum in 1992 with early decisive victories in the South. “That ain’t going to happen this time around,” Mayer said.

Although Edwards tried to claim he had continued to build momentum with a near-tie for third in New Hampshire last week -- he finished fourth, about 840 votes behind retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark -- Mayer said Edwards was overselling what really happened. “The bottom line is, if you’re trying to project yourself as the leading alternative to whoever the frontrunner is, a 12% showing, coming in fourth, is a loss,” Mayer said.

As Kerry’s campaign has strengthened around the country -- polls show him leading in such disparate places as New Mexico, Missouri and Michigan -- both Edwards’ supporters and political analysts are increasingly talking about whether the North Carolina senator might emerge as a strong running mate for Kerry, should he be the nominee.

The night of the New Hampshire primary, which Kerry won handily, Richard Norton, a retired air-conditioning mechanic, was enthusiastic about the prospects of a Kerry-Edwards ticket.

Kerry brings experience, Norton said, while Edwards offers a vibrant campaigning style and Southern appeal. “I think Kerry will be the nominee, to tell you the truth,” said Norton, who voted for Edwards. “But if John Kerry doesn’t have Edwards with him, he’s just going to be another New England presidential loser.”

Edwards, though, has insisted that he is interested only in the top job. “I think,” Edwards said Sunday, “you should ask Sen. Kerry whether he’s interested in being vice president.”