The unsure thing

The odds are against him, but still he soldiers on, crisscrossing the nation, shaking hands with anyone who wants to chat, looking for votes wherever he can. What may sound a lot like Dennis Kucinich’s campaign for the White House in fact describes Jim Sheridan’s run for the original screenplay Oscar for his film “In America.”

Life is filled with sure things and long shots. Not since 1997’s “Titanic,” though, has the Academy Awards competition presented such a lineup of seemingly indomitable favorites. From “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” in the best picture category to “Finding Nemo” in animation, from Sean Penn in the best actor race to Charlize Theron in best actress, this year’s field is awash in so many apparent front-runners that some handicappers seem ready to start handing out the statuettes.

To those handicappers, we offer two words: Marisa Tomei.

In fact, Oscars voters historically often upend easy predictions. It’s easier to nail jello to a tree than make concrete assessments about any film’s Academy Award chances: Miramax Co-Chairman Harvey Weinstein was probably the only person in America who believed Fernando Meirelles would get an Oscar nomination for directing “City of God.”

And just as in politics, the movie with the deepest war chest and strongest opening momentum can end up with the fewest wins, as was the case with last year’s “Gangs of New York,” which had 10 nominations but took home no Oscars.

“I thought there was not a chance in hell with ‘Pollock’ that I would win,” says Marcia Gay Harden, who won the best supporting actress award for the 2000 film. “And with ‘Mystic River,’ I also had read the pundits and thought I was off the list. They said everybody else’s name but mine.” And yet when this year’s Oscar nominations were announced Jan. 27, Harden was back in the supporting actress race. “This time, my expectations are even lower,” she says.

Some categories defy prognostication and lend themselves to wild-card wins almost every time, particularly supporting actor and actress, the latter for which Tomei won for mega-long shot “My Cousin Vinny.” But even the most important races can be subject to shockers. “The Lord of the Rings” is considered the heavy favorite for best picture, but remember: so, too, was “Saving Private Ryan,” which lost to “Shakespeare in Love.”

Some people are understandably more comfortable when they’re not leading the pack. If you’re a front-runner and lose on Oscar night, you’re remembered as a ... loser. Be a dark horse who pulls out a stunning win and you’re seen as a miracle worker. Sometimes, being a favorite can actually work against you if people assume you’re going to win and therefore vote for someone else.

“Everyone told us Hilary Swank didn’t have a chance against Annette Bening,” says Nancy Utley, the marketing chief at Fox Searchlight. But Swank did in fact capture the best actress Oscar for Searchlight’s “Boys Don’t Cry,” topping Bening’s performance in “American Beauty.” “If somebody tells you something’s not achievable, you just go out and work harder and try to make it happen,” says Utley, who is currently promoting “In America” and “Thirteen” for the Academy Awards.

The long-shot nominee obviously faces a more challenging path to the winner’s circle than the presumptive favorite. Campaigns on their behalf often rely on labor-intensive grass-roots promotions that favor grueling public appearances over pricey television advertisements. Television shows and magazines lavish attention on A-list nominees like “Cold Mountain’s” Renee Zellweger, while “Thirteen’s” Holly Hunter has to scratch and claw for every media mention. And although everybody’s seen “Finding Nemo,” a fraction of moviegoers have witnessed “The Triplets of Belleville,” an outlandish animated fantasy by filmmaker Sylvain Chomet that loosely tells the story of a kidnapped bicyclist.

No matter how remote its chances, however, a studio won’t abandon an Oscar nominee, even if it means backing two competitors for the same statuette. The motivation has as much to do with professional dignity as it does with awards destiny: Somebody has to win, and who’s to say it’s not going to be you?

“I think everybody’s an underdog against ‘The Lord of the Rings,’ but you never know,” says Tom Rothman, whose 20th Century Fox is distributing best picture nominee “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World.” “But it’s like the Super Bowl. It’s why you play the game.”

The explosion of multimillion-dollar Oscar campaigns would suggest win-at-all-costs tactics regularly deliver victory for the highest-profile contestants. But there is strong evidence that even a little-known accomplishment in an obscure film can be recognized with scant financial support. The challenge is to make sure enough of the right people see your film.

Four years ago, Thomas Newman was nominated for the original score Oscar from best picture winner “American Beauty.” So too was five-time Oscar winner John Williams, for his music from “Angela’s Ashes.” And yet when the envelope was opened, the Academy Award went to John Corigliano, the unheralded composer for “The Red Violin.”

Lions Gate Films, “Red Violin’s” distributor, bought just one advertisement in Hollywood’s trade newspapers touting Corigliano after he was nominated (other studios buy dozens). “A lot of the things we did were under the radar,” says Lions Gate’s Tom Ortenberg. Lions Gate made sure Oscar voters received copies of the film’s score, held a small party celebrating its CD release and hired an Oscar consultant who specializes in music.

“I genuinely believe the members of the academy vote for the person who gives the best performance,” says Dan Jinks, who won the best picture Oscar for producing 1999’s “American Beauty.” Among many upsets that year, the film’s Kevin Spacey was named best actor, beating “The Hurricane’s” Denzel Washington and “The Insider’s” Russell Crowe. “Campaigns can help remind you of a performance, but members of the academy are smart people,” Jinks says.

Thanks to the advent of free awards-season DVDs and videocassettes, voters have little excuse not to see the eligible films. But in a shortened Oscar season with no fewer than 36 features in competition, the voters constantly must be reminded to pop that movie into a machine and sit down to watch it. That’s where personal appearances by a film’s stars and makers become critical, particularly when a movie is not on everyone’s mind.

Harden, who is seven months pregnant with twins, has been showing up at long awards parties and late-night movie premieres on the road to the Oscars ceremony Feb. 29, even though it means wearing heels and dresses, rather than clogs and sweats. “By the end of the day, it’s a bit much,” the actress says.

Sheridan, who co-wrote and directed the loosely autobiographical “In America,” estimates that he has been talking about himself “eight hours a day for 20 weeks. I’ve talked to kids with online websites who have maybe four readers. Literally, no stone has been left unturned,” Sheridan says, minutes after finishing a TV interview with a reporter who hadn’t seen his film and minutes before heading to the airport for “In America” appearances in New York.

Sheridan’s script faces its toughest competition from Sofia Coppola’s screenplay for “Lost in Translation.” “In America” also is nominated for best supporting actor for Djimon Hounsou and best actress for Samantha Morton.

Being an underdog may hold hidden advantages. “I think we have a psychological shot,” says Michael Barker, whose Sony Pictures Classics released “Triplets of Belleville,” which is dueling “Finding Nemo” for the animated feature Oscar. “Triplets” has grossed $2.6 million to date, while “Nemo” has taken in more than 100 times that, with ticket sales of $339 million. “People think, ‘How much more revenue can “Finding Nemo” receive? How much more can an Oscar help a film like that?’ ” Barker says.

One of this year’s more awkward favorite-versus-long shot contests is the best actress race, which pits ostensible “Monster” front-runner Theron against Keisha Castle-Hughes, the little-known 13-year-old star of “Whale Rider.” Both films were distributed by Newmarket Films, so any Oscar support the company gives Castle-Hughes theoretically could come at Theron’s expense. “It’s a delicate position,” says Bob Berney, Newmarket’s president. “We’re trying not to look at it as competitive and make sure it’s balanced.”

In the end, fighting an uphill battle can earn points all over Hollywood. Many of the town’s most creative filmmakers want to be in business with against-all-odds risk takers, not conservative conglomerates.

“We’re not doing our job unless we are promoting films that are underdogs,” says James Schamus, whose Focus Features made best picture contender “Lost in Translation.” “If we are not making underdogs, then we are not making the right movies.”