Schwarzenegger Earns Respectable Marks, but Big Test Is Coming Up

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s 100th day on the job will be next Tuesday. It’s the traditional point when a governor’s first grade is due. Give Schwarzenegger an A for charm and an incomplete for problem solving.

Overall: a generous B.

It’s a little unfair and somewhat meaningless. Never has there been a worse 100-day measuring stick for a governor.

First, Schwarzenegger took office in November and lost time when the Capitol went on holiday recess.

Second, the most important day for Schwarzenegger will be the 107th, not the 100th. That’s March 2, when voters will decide the fate of his two ballot measures: Proposition 57, a $15-billion deficit bond, and Prop. 58 to require a balanced budget.

“On March 2, it’s ‘For Whom the Bell Tolls,’ ” says Senate Majority Leader Don Perata (D-Oakland). “If the bond loses, the budget’s not only in worse condition, but Schwarzenegger’s ability to push his own agenda is diminished. He’d look like a flash in the pan. That’s the way it would be written.”

The smart bet, however, is that the two props pass -- papering over a deficit hole and giving the governor and legislators breathing space for a few months, but not really solving the long-range budget mess.

If Schwarzenegger got everything he wanted -- including the ballot measures and all the cuts in his budget proposal -- the state still would spend $7 billion more than it took in during the fiscal year starting July 2005, nonpartisan Legislative Analyst Elizabeth G. Hill reported Wednesday.

Voters are justifiably nervous about the bond measure -- about going into hock for at least nine years to pay current government expenses. But the expectation among political pros is the public will come around. Schwarzenegger is a charming salesman. He’s spending around $10 million on TV ads, and there is no organized opposition. Most Democratic lawmakers have bought into the bonds, fearing the governor and deeper spending cuts.

Schwarzenegger’s strength comes from his public popularity and it’s still high, according to a new poll by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. Among likely voters, 61% approve of how the governor is handling his job and just 22% disapprove. That’s only a slight drop from a January poll (64% and 17%).

Historically, governors have not had spectacular first 100 days. Indeed, these early periods often have been poor indicators of the future. But the governors do begin to show their colors.

Gray Davis probably had the most productive first 100 days of recent decades. He pushed through four education reform bills and I graded him B-plus.

But already Davis was getting bogged down in minutiae. And under pressure from liberals, he ultimately abandoned his pledge “to resist the siren song of extremism, to lead boldly down the middle.”

Ronald Reagan had a horrendous first 100 days as governor, hiring an inept finance director and attempting an inefficient, eye-rolling 10% across-the-board cut in state spending. “We were not only amateurs, we were novice amateurs,” longtime Reagan aide Lyn Nofziger recalled to biographer Lou Cannon.

But Reagan also began to show the pragmatism that would result in a very successful governorship, soon raising taxes to cover a budget hole.

Pete Wilson faced a budget crisis at least as daunting as Schwarzenegger’s and courageously raised taxes, showing the combativeness that would become his style.

“There are people in the Legislature who never before have voted for a tax increase and they’re going to have to,” Wilson said during his first 100 days. “There are people in the Legislature who will have to vote for spending cuts that are distinctly unpleasant.”

One Schwarzenegger misstep has been walking into the right-wing no-tax trap. He’ll eventually need to free himself.

Says Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (D-Los Angeles): “We can’t lead with tax increases, but ultimately when we start cutting into the bone and the governor sees how these cuts affect real people, this man has a heart and he’s going to start looking for new ways to generate revenue. That could be taxes.”

This reflects the Capitol’s optimism about the governor. He was, after all, willing to negotiate with Democrats on the two ballot measures. He struck a deal with education interests that netted $2 billion for the state.

“The best thing about him,” says Senate leader John Burton (D-San Francisco), “is that he’s confident enough in himself; when new facts come to his attention he’s willing to change his mind.”

Example: Scrapping his proposal to cut services for 200,000 people with developmental disabilities.

Two ballyhooed actions Schwarzenegger took required no heavy lifting: Repealing the car tax increase; it pacified the public, but made the budget hole $4 billion deeper. Securing a bill to repeal driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants; he’ll likely sign another version with background checks.

There has been “action, action, action,” as Schwarzenegger vowed. But there hasn’t been much result. He still has not solved problems. Real problems. With real solutions.

It’s early.

The governor will be graded again March 2. He’ll be raised to an A-minus or lowered to a C-minus.

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George Skelton writes Monday and Thursday. Reach him at george.skelton@latimes.com. Read previous columns at latimes.com/skelton.