Delegate-Rich California Has to Share the Attention

It may be the biggest prize of the primary election season, but California will receive only passing attention over the next eight days from the two men best positioned to win the Democratic presidential nomination.

The state’s long yearning to have a meaningful voice in picking a nominee finally has come to fruition. But the political calendar is so jammed with other contests that Sens. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts and John Edwards of North Carolina will spend less than three days here before the March 2 primary.

With more delegates than any other state, 370, California has undoubted allure. But it won’t hold the candidates’ undivided attention because nine other states also will hold contests on “Super Tuesday,” including Ohio and New York. And three other states vote before that.

Even without all the distractions, the Golden State can prove daunting to candidates -- too large to buttonhole many voters in person and with TV markets so expensive it can blow a campaign treasury to smithereens. Most analysts expect Kerry and Edwards to be absent from the airwaves or to air only a fraction of ads that bombarded voters in earlier primary states.

So how will the two men fighting for the Democratic nomination compete in California?

They will send surrogates around the state, count on TV news programs to put them before voters nightly, regardless of where in the nation they are, and tap unions and other established organizations to get their supporters to the polls.

Both candidates also have agreed to participate in a lone debate in the state -- a Los Angeles Times-CNN forum Thursday at USC. Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio and the Rev. Al Sharpton of New York will also take part.

A 19-year veteran of the Senate, Kerry appears to have the advantage going into the next round of voting, most political observers believe. He benefits from the publicity gained in winning 15 of 17 primaries and caucuses and holds more levers among the state’s establishment Democrats and labor unions.

Edwards, in contrast, has finally earned the two-man contest he had sought for months and the media attention that comes with making the final pairing.

A poll completed last Monday by the Public Policy Institute of California, a San Francisco think tank, showed Kerry leading with 56% to Edwards’ 10% among likely voters. But the survey was taken before Edwards’ second-place finish in Wisconsin on Tuesday and before Howard Dean dropped from the race.

Edwards’ partisans like to remind reporters that the photogenic one-term senator needed just one week to narrow a more than 30-percentage-point gap in Wisconsin, finishing just 6 percentage points behind Kerry.

Some observers say the 50-year-old North Carolinian already seems to be benefiting from added coverage by TV stations and newspapers that appear to be craving a protracted Democratic nomination fight.

“He is the darling of television coverage right now,” said Kam Kuwata, a Democratic consultant who has run many campaigns in California. “There is almost a standard story right now on the evening news, that John Edwards is surging and has energy.”

Edwards scored well with independents in Wisconsin, and a large turnout among them could help him in California, some observers believe.

“The media and the voters are pretty hungry for a competitive California primary,” Bill Carrick, advisor to former presidential contender Dick Gephardt, said. But he said the large gap Edwards must close in the polls makes the odds confronting him “pretty formidable.”

Californians looking to choose between the two front-runners may have a hard time making their choice on the issues. In bookend interviews Sunday on ABC’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos,” Kerry and Edwards showed there’s some separation between them, but not much.

Edwards said he would do more to crack down on lenders who prey on poor and middle-class families, while Kerry noted that he had cast more consistent votes against Bush’s tax cuts.

Kerry said his healthcare policy was solid, winning the imprimatur of the strategists who helped President Clinton balance the federal budget. Edwards said his health plan was more “affordable and doable” though it would cover an estimated 6 million fewer Americans than Kerry’s would.

Edwards said he could find little difference with his rival on policy toward Iraq. Kerry said the big difference was his “35 years of experience in international security, foreign policy and military affairs.”

Edwards’ most potent issue in Wisconsin was trade. He hammered away on his opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement and other trade treaties that Kerry has supported.

But Carrick said he thought Edwards would have trouble winning votes with that issue in California, because the candidates’ trade differences are not dramatic enough.

With gay and lesbians couples marrying by the thousands at San Francisco City Hall and prompting lawsuits to block them, same-sex marriage might seem a ripe topic for the presidential contenders to debate. But the issue may have little currency over the next week for two reasons: The top contenders, again, hold similar positions, and many advocates say they are content not to force the issue for now.

Both Kerry and Edwards oppose gay marriage but say they support benefits for domestic partners and federal laws that punish employers for discriminating based on sexual orientation. They also have said they would oppose any effort by President Bush or others to pass a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriages.

Californians who want a candidate with a pro-gay-marriage message will be able to vote for Kucinich, who plans to appear on the steps of San Francisco City Hall this afternoon to commend the city for conducting same-sex marriages.

It’s one of seven Bay Area stops the Ohio congressman is scheduled to make today.

Sharpton made a swing through California this weekend, stopping by churches in Oakland and Los Angeles. On Sunday morning, he delivered the sermon at First African Methodist Episcopal Church in the West Adams neighborhood of South Los Angeles. Like Kucinich, he’s appealing for votes with a provocative and liberal message that includes a more active role for government in healthcare and services for the poor.

“There are people that want to be heard,” Sharpton said, referring in large part to the minority communities he has targeted during his campaign. “....Those people are not spoken for by Kerry or Edwards.”

California, a state with large urban centers and a majority minority population, is a natural fit for Sharpton’s message, said Najee Ali, the campaign’s Southern California organizer.

“Even though realistically it appears we won’t win the Democratic nomination, we will have some of those issues addressed at the convention with delegates,” Ali said, referring to concerns of importance to minorities, such as affirmative action, racial profiling and violence in urban neighborhoods.

Edwards plans to deliver his case directly to Californians beginning Wednesday, the start of a 2 1/2-day tour of the state. His specific stops have not been set.

His wife, Elizabeth, began campaigning in the Bay Area on Friday. Others expected to pitch in include former state Assembly Speaker Herb Wesson, five current Assembly members, and possibly actors Dennis Hopper and Ashton Kutcher.

Kerry has a much longer list of big-name backers, including Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Los Angeles City Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa, a national Kerry co-chair, along with eight members of the U.S. House and 28 state Assembly members.

Also aiding Kerry will be the California Labor Federation, representing more than 2 million union members, which announced its support last week.

Kerry’s California schedule is not set. His two daughters will stump for him, with daughter Vanessa joining Villaraigosa at a rally for volunteers Sunday and visiting Pepperdine University in Malibu this morning.

Kerry’s wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, plans to meet Tuesday evening with farm laborers in Delano, where Cesar Chavez helped found United Farmworkers of America four decades ago.

The candidates’ success in California will be measured both in 53 congressional districts and statewide. Delegates will be awarded to any candidate winning more than 15% of the vote either in a district or statewide.

Independents are eligible to vote in the March 2 primary by requesting a Democratic ballot at their polling place.

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Delegate count

Here is the breakdown of presidential preferences of delegates to the Democratic National Convention. It includes choices by “super delegates,” those not picked through primaries or caucuses and who can change their minds.

Needed to nominate: 2,162

*--* Candidate Delegates John F. Kerry 626 Howard Dean 193 John Edwards 190 Al Sharpton 16 Dennis J. Kucinich 2

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Source: Associated Press

Times staff writer Susannah Rosenblatt contributed to this report.