DGA nod: a preview of coming attraction?

When Directors Guild of America President Michael Apted announces the nominees for the guild’s outstanding directorial achievement in feature film for 2003 on Tuesday morning, the real question on everyone’s mind will be: Which of them will get the Oscar?

Since it was first handed out in 1948, the DGA’s award has become one of the most reliable bellwethers for the Oscars, mostly because many of the guild’s 12,700 members are also part of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Only six times in the award’s 56-year history has the winner of the DGA award not gone on to win the best director Oscar -- most notably Francis Ford Coppola, who was passed over for an Oscar for “The Godfather” in 1972, and Steven Spielberg, who was not even nominated for an Oscar for “The Color Purple” in 1985.

Nominee possibilities this year include Peter Jackson for “Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,” Anthony Minghella for “Cold Mountain,” Clint Eastwood for “Mystic River” and Sofia Coppola for “Lost in Translation.” If Coppola is nominated, it would be only the fifth time a woman was included and the first time the child of a former DGA award-winner was nominated for the same award.

Coppola could be in store for some of her father’s same disappointment, however. Although the awards have been a reliable indicator in the past, things may be changing in the 21st century. In the past four years, there have been two discrepancies between the DGA and Oscar winner: “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” director Ang Lee’s loss to Steven Soderbergh (nominated for “Traffic”) in 2000, and last year’s upset, when Roman Polanski (“The Pianist”) took the Oscar instead of DGA winner Rob Marshall (“Chicago”).

The DGA awards will be handed out Feb. 7, allowing the winner to breathe a little easier until the Academy Awards on Feb. 29.

-- Patrick Day