State’s Swing Voters Cut the Governor Some Slack

Retired nurse Linda Alaimo of Glendale was taken aback by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s proposed cuts in public services for the poor.

“I really am disappointed in him, and I know quite a few of my friends are,” said the 82-year-old Democrat, whose vote for Schwarzenegger was her first for a Republican.

Yet Alaimo remains open-minded about the iconoclast who took power two months ago: “He just got in there, so you’ve got to give him a chance.”

That forgiving mood is a blessing to Schwarzenegger. Facing a $14-billion shortfall, he proposed budget cuts that could have set loose the sort of voter anger that whipsawed his deposed predecessor, Gray Davis. Instead, there is little sign of harm to Schwarzenegger’s standing among the Californians who are pillars of his political strength: the swing Democrats and independents who voted for him.

In Glendale, a bellwether area for California elections, nearly two dozen such voters this week voiced no more than mild misgivings about Schwarzenegger’s budget -- and no regrets about backing him. By and large, they were pleased to see a governor with no experience in politics bring to Sacramento the kind of new blood they had hoped he would. He inherited the fiscal mess, most said, so he deserved leeway in cleaning it up.

“You have to give the man time to do his job,” said student and part-time painter Paul Carney, 36, a Democrat who voted for Schwarzenegger.

Not that Carney agrees with everything the governor has done. On a visit to the Glendale Central Library, where he catches up on local newspapers, Carney faulted Schwarzenegger for not proposing higher taxes to spread sacrifice more widely. By Carney’s reckoning, the governor also shortchanged public schools by proposing $2 billion less than the minimum set by voters under Proposition 98.

“That’s why a lot of people voted for him, because he said he wouldn’t touch education, and then he turned around and cut it,” Carney said.

Yet Carney still sees Schwarzenegger as “a breath of fresh air” in a capital overrun by insiders trading favors with scant regard for the public interest.

Parke Skelton, a Los Angeles campaign strategist, has found a well of goodwill toward the governor in private polls for Democratic candidates grappling with the political forces that put Schwarzenegger in office.

“People recognize the state is in a crisis, and they’re rooting for him to succeed,” Skelton said.

Whether that mood will persist is open to question. Skelton, for one, foresees danger for Schwarzenegger as voters feel the full brunt of the cuts he has proposed to state and local services.

Indeed, many Glendale voters were unfamiliar with details of Schwarzenegger’s budget, including the $15-billion debt proposal that goes before voters in March.

Stephanie Correa, 37, a Democrat who voted for Schwarzenegger, was vaguely aware of the debt plan (“It doesn’t bother me; the alternative is bankruptcy”) and tuition hikes for college students (“I don’t believe that’s for the long term”).

But whatever the details, Correa, an accounting secretary, sees Schwarzenegger as living up to his vow “to get rid of this fighting between the politicians.”

“They spend so much time seeing who can bad-mouth each other the most,” she said. “He’s trying to get rid of that so they can do some work.”

Or as Bud Chatham put it: “He’s much better than the old dude who was in there, Davis.” A retired clarinet reed maker, Chatham, 76, is an independent who voted for Schwarzenegger. “I know he’s cutting a lot of things, but they need to be cut,” he said.

Across the political spectrum, Schwarzenegger has won favor by lowering the car tax and wiping off the books a law giving driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants.

But as he maneuvers through the budget crisis, Schwarzenegger faces a delicate balancing act: He must appeal to his Republican base at the same time he reaches out to the Democrats and independents whose support sealed his recall victory.

In California, where 35% of voters are Republicans and 44% are Democrats, that task is crucial for any Republican aspiring to statewide office.

“You cannot get elected statewide on base Republican votes alone,” said Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of the California Target Book, a nonpartisan elections guide.

For Republicans, Schwarzenegger’s budget offered -- most visibly -- a commitment not to raise taxes, a touchstone issue for conservatives. For moderate Democrats and independents, his debt plan offset cuts to programs.

As budget talks unfold, Schwarzenegger will strive to keep his voter base solid, not just to enhance his reelection prospects, but to sustain his clout with Democrats who control the Legislature. He used that sway with lawmakers last month to win fast agreement on two fiscal measures for the March ballot -- and hopes to use it again to strike a deal on his full $99-billion budget.

On October’s crowded recall ballot, Schwarzenegger carried 77% of Republicans, 46% of independents and 21% of Democrats, according to a Times exit poll.

For a Republican trying to win statewide, suburbs such as Glendale and the surrounding area are crucial. A GOP stronghold in the decades after World War II, Glendale lost many of its white conservative voters in the 1990s to outlying communities as aerospace jobs vanished, the entertainment industry expanded and immigration surged.

The area became a fiercely contested battleground in state and national elections. In 2000, the local congressional district was the scene of the most expensive House race in history. GOP incumbent James Rogan, who had cemented his image as a conservative out of step with the district by pushing the impeachment of President Clinton, was ousted by Democratic challenger Adam Schiff.

Like California, the area has tilted more and more toward Democrats. But it also mirrored the state’s swing back to a Republican governor. In the local Assembly district, a majority favored the recall of Davis, and Schwarzenegger finished far ahead of his rivals.

Jim Nygren, Rogan’s campaign strategist, said the Glendale area remains “geared to the middle,” its electorate well-suited for a fiscal conservative and social moderate like Schwarzenegger.

April Reichman, 39, a Glendale art consultant shopping at Trader Joe’s, described her vote for Schwarzenegger as “winging it.” A Democrat, she sees his budget cuts and tuition hikes as painful but necessary.

“You hate to see it happening, but I do recognize that it unfortunately does have to happen,” she said.

Alaimo, browsing the shoe racks at a store in the Glendale Galleria, wants Schwarzenegger to scale back the cuts and raise taxes. “People that can’t afford it are getting hit the hardest,” she said.

But even if Schwarzenegger’s tenure as governor “doesn’t look great” so far, she said, “I’ll give him a break and see what happens.”