Republicans Keep a Lock on Capitol Hill

Republicans retained control of the House and Senate in Tuesday’s elections, extending their decade-long domination of Capitol Hill as they swept up victories across the South and unseated Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota.

Republicans increased their control of the Senate, securing at least 53 seats in the 100-member Senate by picking up seats formerly held by Democrats in the Carolinas, Georgia and Louisiana and seizing Daschle’s post. And they could increase their majority further if they were to win some of the contests that had yet to be decided by early this morning.

Democratic Party officials had conceded all along that they faced an uphill climb in their quest for a Senate majority because the most competitive contests were being fought in states considered to be Republican strongholds. But by midnight, they conceded that there was no string of victories left that would give them a majority.

“We’ve had a tough climb,” Sen. Jon Corzine (D-N.J.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said on CBS. “I’m disappointed we’re probably not going to take it back.”

Although the attention focused on a handful of closely fought Senate races, most incumbents up for reelection -- including California’s Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer -- coasted to victory.

In the House, Republicans were hoping to expand their 22-seat advantage, building on the defeat of four incumbents in Texas as a result of redrawn congressional districts that favored Republican candidates. A key question was whether the gains in Texas would offset losses in other parts of the country.

The outcome of the battle for Capitol Hill is crucial to the man who wins the White House. For Democrat John F. Kerry, a Republican-controlled Congress could loom as a roadblock to his agenda of expanded healthcare, tax increases for the wealthy and increased education funding.

For President Bush, a Republican victory in Congress would make it easier for him to advance his second-term agenda of more tax cuts and a Social Security overhaul.

The final balance of power in the Senate was not known late Tuesday because it hinged on the outcome of several undecided races, including election battles in Alaska and Florida, where Republicans led early today.

However, the 2004 elections seem likely to produce a Senate slightly more diverse than the old one: It will include Democratic state Sen. Barack Obama, who was elected by a wide margin in Illinois, making him the only African American in the Senate and the first since the 1998 defeat of Carol Moseley Braun, who was also an Illinois Democrat.

Democratic state Atty. Gen. Ken Salazar won the open Senate seat in Colorado, becoming the only Latino in the Senate and the first since Sen. Joseph M. Montoya (D-N.M.) retired in 1977.

The new Senate may be more conservative -- and not just because there will be several Republicans replacing Democrats. Two of the newly elected GOP senators -- Tom Coburn of Oklahoma and Jim DeMint of South Carolina -- are vocal representatives of the GOP’s more conservative wing.

And in Louisiana, a Republican was elected senator for the first time in the state’s history. Rep. David Vitter won the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. John B. Breaux. Vitter led a multi-candidate field in returns early today.

The balloting for Congress was the culmination of a long, exceptionally nasty and expensive campaign. It featured relentless mudslinging in many places, including Democratic commercials that questioned the mental health of Republican Sen. Jim Bunning of Kentucky and Republican TV ads accusing Sen. Patty Murray of Washington of being soft on terrorist leader Osama bin Laden.

The candidates and political parties spent more than $445 million on the contest for the Senate -- up from about $326 million in 2002, according to an analysis of Federal Election Commission data by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.

Heading into the election, Republicans controlled the Senate by a scant 51-vote majority; there were 48 Democrats and one independent, who usually voted with the Democrats. That meant Democrats needed a net gain of two seats to win a majority -- or one if Kerry were elected, because his vice president would break any 50-50 tie in the Senate.

But Democrats were seeking that small gain on a playing field that was tilted strongly against them. Of the 34 seats on the ballot this year, 19 were held by Democrats and 15 were held by Republicans. The nine most competitive races were in states that favored Bush in 2000 -- including many in the South, where five Democratic retirements gave the GOP a golden opportunity to take away seats.

Democrats hoped to stay within striking distance by fielding strong candidates in the Southern states like North Carolina, South Carolina -- where they ultimately lost -- and Florida. Republicans had a surprisingly hard time holding onto states they usually dominate, such as Oklahoma, Alaska and Colorado. But winning control of the Senate would have required the Democrats to win almost all those competitive races.

Democrats were encouraged by early returns showing that Bunning was in danger of losing to Democrat Daniel Mongiardo, a state senator who had accused the incumbent of being out of touch and unfit for office. But by night’s end, the incumbent had pulled ahead to a narrow victory.

Republicans were relieved by returns from the Oklahoma Senate race, even though the state should have been an easy win for Coburn. He trailed his Democratic opponent, Rep. Brad Carson, for much of the campaign because of missteps and Democratic attacks on him as a political extremist. But he pulled ahead with an attack strategy that portrayed Carson as too liberal.

The key GOP gains came from picking up three Southern seats previously held by Democrats who retired -- including DeMint’s victory in South Carolina, where he succeeds Sen. Ernest F. Hollings.

Democrats lost the North Carolina seat vacated by Sen. John Edwards when he became Kerry’s running mate: GOP Rep. Richard Burr trailed for most of the campaign but ended up beating former Clinton aide Erskine Bowles by highlighting Bowles’ ties to the former president. And in Georgia, Republican Rep. Johnny Isakson easily won the seat vacated by Democratic Sen. Zell Miller.

The marquee battle was the powerful challenge to Daschle, who struggled to turn back a challenge from former Rep. John Thune in a state that was strongly pro-Bush. Republicans portrayed him as the linchpin of congressional opposition to Bush’s policies; Daschle emphasized how his clout had benefited his home state.

The vote was so close that both sides had been preparing for a possible recount, which would be required under state law if the winner’s margin of victory was less than 0.25% of the vote.

In the House, Democrats had an even steeper hill to climb. Republicans went into the election with 227 House seats; Democrats had 205, plus the support of one independent that usually voted with them; two seats were vacant.

That meant Democrats needed a net gain of 12 seats to get a majority. The road was uphill because there were fewer than two dozen truly competitive seats. The vast majority of House members were expected to be easily reelected.

But a handful of incumbents were shown the exit.

Among the four Texas Democrats defeated on the new political map championed by House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) were two very powerful senior members: Rep. Martin Frost, a longtime member of his party’s leadership and the senior member of the delegation, and Rep. Charles W. Stenholm, a leading conservative Democrat who, like Frost, was pitted against a Republican incumbent.

Democrats scored an upset of their own against a senior member: GOP Rep. Philip M. Crane, the longest-serving Republican in the House, was defeated by businesswoman Melissa Bean.

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Balance of power

Senate after the election (As of 11:30 p.m., PST)

Independent: 1

Democrats: 44

Republicans: 52

Undecided: 3