Voters May Not Have a Say on Who Succeeds Arafat

Ambulance driver Talal Eideh has a message for officials who may soon confront the question of how to replace Yasser Arafat as Palestinian Authority president: Follow the law and put it to a vote.

“There should be elections. The people ought to decide who takes his place,” said Eideh, 43, who added that he was not politically involved. “We don’t want others to choose for us. We want to be the ones to make a choice.”

Arafat’s deteriorating condition -- and the fact that his death would remove Palestinian society’s dominant figure -- is prompting reformers and ordinary residents to press for filling the vacuum through open elections rather than backroom bargaining.

The so-called Basic Law, which serves as a constitution for the Palestinian Authority, spells out how presidential succession is to be handled. Under that law, the speaker of parliament, Rouhi Fatouh, would take over as caretaker for 60 days, with elections to be scheduled as soon as possible.

Despite the law, there is no guarantee that a presidential election will occur if Arafat dies, analysts say, because balloting has been scrapped before.

Supporters of a presidential vote, which would be the first in the West Bank and Gaza Strip since 1996, say it may be the only way to make certain that a new leader can boast enough public support to govern after the passing of a chief as popular, if often ineffective, as Arafat.

“There is a great opportunity to have free, democratic elections, and this is the only way to ensure that you have a legitimate leadership,” said Mustafa Barghouti, head of the reformist Palestinian National Initiative.

But several factors may make a swift election unlikely. For one thing, a successor would also be necessary to fill Arafat’s role as chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization, the internationally recognized body from which the Palestinian Authority draws its power. That post, in many ways more powerful and prestigious than president, seems likely to be assumed by Arafat’s PLO deputy, Mahmoud Abbas, a former Palestinian Authority prime minister seen as having weak public support.

Moreover, some Palestinian officials say they aren’t sure that an election campaign is feasible when Israeli roadblocks, checkpoints and closures severely limit movement in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. If candidates can’t move freely to campaign, they say, elections would be pointless.

Palestinian leaders say they are not focusing on succession arrangements as long as Arafat is alive. But a high-ranking official, Palestinian National Council head Salim Zanoun, suggested Saturday that the parliament might have to revise the succession law if limitations make an election unworkable.

Under such a change, Zanoun said, the new PLO chairman would become president of the Palestinian Authority until elections could be held. Justice Minister Nahid Rayyas agreed, saying that a change in the law might be needed “to fill the gap” in the event of Arafat’s death.

Such talk does not comfort election supporters. Although the prime minister runs the government from day to day, the president holds important powers, such as signing or vetoing legislation, overseeing Palestinian emissaries abroad and serving as commander in chief.

Hani Masri, who writes a column in the semi-official Al Ayyam newspaper, said political insiders might view elections as a threat to their power and resist holding them. This would be especially true, he said, among the old guard within Arafat’s Fatah movement, which dominates Palestinian politics. “Elections will mean the end of Fatah’s hegemony,” Masri said.

Such a vote could toss a wild card into Palestinian politics by providing a route to power for a new generation of reformers or a fresh stage for militant Islamist groups, such as Hamas, which boycotted previous elections.

Hamas said recently that it would take part in municipal elections scheduled to begin next month, and leaders have suggested that the group would be involved in future national elections.

Palestinians have not voted since 1996, when Arafat won in a landslide. Palestinian authorities indefinitely postponed a national election scheduled for early last year, blaming Israeli restrictions.

The Palestinian government launched a voter-registration drive this fall in preparation for a future vote for president and parliament, although no date was set. Officials said they signed up more than 1 million Palestinians, or about two-thirds of those eligible.

Public surveys over the years have consistently shown minuscule support for virtually anyone but Arafat as president. Those polls included Arafat, of course, and it is unclear how his absence would affect others’ fortunes.

Abbas, for example, drew less than 1% support in a hypothetical presidential run in a survey released in September by Birzeit University’s Development Studies Program in Ramallah. The current prime minister, Ahmed Korei, drew 1%.

In a field of 11 candidates, Arafat was chosen by 46%. The only other hypothetical candidate with double-digit support was Marwan Barghouti, the fiery Fatah leader who is imprisoned in Israel in connection with the deaths of five people in attacks by militants.

The top Hamas candidate, Mahmoud Zahar, received about 9% support. Dennis B. Ross, the former U.S. envoy to the Middle East, recently wrote that organizing an election would require the Palestinians to coordinate efforts with the Israeli military, which oversees the Palestinian territories, and that interaction could lead to renewed dialogue.

Yacoub Khattab, an unemployed former hotel worker in Ramallah, said allowing the public to determine Arafat’s successor would be a “step for democracy.” He was hard-pressed, however, to name a suitable replacement.

“There is nobody like him,” said Khattab, 55. “It’s going to be difficult.”