On the ropes?

When Trista Rehn and Ryan Sutter, the real-life couple that found romance on ABC’s hit “The Bachelor,” celebrated a prime-time wedding in December, a cover story in People magazine wondered: Will it last?

Now people are asking the same question of the reality-TV fad that made the duo cover-worthy in the first place. Back for another round of stage-whispered cattiness and “final rose” ceremonies with new contestants this fall, “The Bachelor” has lost a third of its audience compared with last season, averaging just 8.3-million viewers -- fewer than the number who tune in to the Wednesday version of the CBS newsmagazine “60 Minutes.”

It’s just one more bit of tarnish on TV’s once-gilded reality boom, which has produced such monster hits as CBS’ “Survivor” and Fox’s “American Idol.” Two other unscripted staples, NBC’s “Apprentice 2” with Donald Trump and the gross-out contest “Fear Factor,” have likewise suffered double-digit declines this fall, although both still perform respectably in their time slots.

Meanwhile, Fox executives, who heavily promoted “Rebel Billionaire: Branson’s Quest for the Best,” with thrill-seeking mogul Richard Branson pushing would-be subordinates through a gantlet of daring stunts, were stunned when the two-hour premiere bombed last week. Another impress-the-billionaire series, “The Benefactor” with Mark Cuban, owner of the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks, turned in abysmal numbers for ABC, despite an enviable time period adjacent to “Monday Night Football.”

Instead of reality, viewers are -- for the first time in years -- buzzing about two new scripted dramas, ABC’s darkly comic soap “Desperate Housewives” and the desert-island thriller “Lost.” And that has executives reconsidering their on-again, off-again love affair with reality TV, with most agreeing that schedules were cluttered with too much of the format this fall. Sixty percent of Fox’s new lineup this month consists of reality series -- believed to be the highest proportion at any network within a regular season.

“It’s not dead. It’s certainly going to be a part of what we do,” Steve McPherson, ABC’s president of prime time entertainment, said of the genre. “But there haven’t been 20 great new ideas, [and] there’s been, like, 40 new shows.”

Added Fox reality guru Mike Darnell: “Reality is becoming so much a part of the television landscape that it’s suffering the same slings and arrows” as other forms of programming.

Since ABC’s game show “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire” with Regis Philbin kick-started the phenomenon in late 1999, the unscripted genre has been both savior and scourge of network bosses. They grew to love the format’s seemingly limitless ratings potential, especially among young adults, even as they held their noses at the tacky excess on some shows, such as Fox’s “Who Wants to Marry a Multimillionaire?” and ABC’s “Are You Hot?: The Search for America’s Sexiest People.”

A few reality shows still post impressive numbers. ABC’s “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition” has bucked the overall trend, zooming 44% this fall, to 16 million viewers, according to figures from Nielsen Media Research. CBS’ “Survivor: Vanuatu” is the No. 5 program overall, down just 6% compared to last year’s “Pearl Islands” installments. “American Idol” is almost certain to post big numbers when it returns in January, and Tuesday, CBS will debut “Amazing Race: 6,” the travel-adventure series that has gradually turned into a reliable hit.

But overall, unscripted series don’t seem nearly as potent as they did two years ago, when Fox’s prank romance “Joe Millionaire” soared out of nowhere to become the top show in the advertiser-friendly category of adults 18 to 49, or even as recently as last spring, when “Apprentice” bloomed into a pop-culture sensation. “For a time, there was an idea that this was a can’t-miss format,” said CBS research chief David Poltrack.

A number of reality series that seemed daring when they debuted now look tired, if only because viewers have seen them so many times, and in so many different variations on the same theme. “That sense of what is current and what is not changes very fast,” said Tom Gutteridge, president of Fremantlemedia North America, which produces “Idol” and Fox’s “The Swan.”

Early on, “Fear Factor” was attacked for stunts that some viewers felt went beyond the pale. But the NBC show has aired 103 original episodes and is now in syndication, and repetition makes the shock value harder to sustain. “A lot of these shows are aging,” Darnell said. “Age takes its toll.”

Poltrack said CBS research also showed that viewers are weary of shows that exist simply to pit contestants against one another (i.e., knockoffs of “Survivor”) or play elaborate practical jokes on participants (a la “Joe Millionaire”). Instead, audiences are gravitating toward sentimental wish-fulfillment programs like “Home Edition,” which several executives compared to the 1950s game show “Queen for a Day,” which dispensed free washing machines to the contestants who told the saddest hard-luck stories. NBC’s “The Biggest Loser” has also scored modest success with an uplifting take (notwithstanding the title) on weight loss.

Network executives, meanwhile, have less patience than they used to for reality shows that don’t deliver big numbers. That’s because, while the genre was once considered dirt-cheap programming, producers have fetched higher and higher prices for their output. NBC’s boxing series “The Contender,” coming in January, cost more than $2 million per episode -- more than the license fee the network would pay for a new one-hour drama. “Reality shows have become as expensive as other shows,” McPherson said.

Fox’s own boxing-reality series, “The Next Great Champ,” which had sparred in court with “The Contender” over concept issues, was KO’d after just four episodes by poor ratings. Subsequent installments were shifted to cable’s Fox Sports Net.

Breathing a huge sigh of relief from the reality cool-down are TV writers, who had been shunted aside over the last few years as networks chased the next “Idol” or “Apprentice.” TV script agents say that ABC’s rivals are desperately seeking quirky dramatic series like “Housewives” and “Lost.” And hit comedies are scarcer than at any time since the early 1980s.

But executives insist that viewers, far from calling it quits with reality TV, are simply looking for the next big thing.

As Darnell said, “Nothing’s broken out [recently] at the level of ‘Idol’ or ‘Survivor,’ but something will. You just don’t see it coming.”

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No script, and now no growth

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Some of the best-known reality shows have tumbled in the ratings this season:

‘THE BACHELOR’ -34%

‘FEAR FACTOR’ -18%

‘THE APPRENTICE’ -24%

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Reality sinks in

Last season, unscripted series looked like the savior of network television. But ratings for the genre have fallen off sharply so far this year -- though the Fox hit “American Idol” is likely to buck the trend when it returns in January. Viewers Top reality shows in 2003-04 (network) (In millions)

1. ÒAmerican IdolÓ (Tues) (Fox) 25.7 2. ÒAmerican IdolÓ (Wed.) (Fox) 24.3 3. ÒSurvivor: All StarsÓ (CBS) 21.5 4. (tie) ÒSurvivor: Pearl IslandsÓ (CBS)20.7 4. (tie) ÒApprenticeÓ (NBC) 20.7 6. ÒFear FactorÓ (NBC) 13.6 7. ÒAverage JoeÓ (NBC) 12.6 8. ÒThe BachelorÓ (ABC) 12.5 9. ÒThe BacheloretteÓ (ABC) 11.6 10. ÒAverage Joe: HawaiiÓ (NBC) 11.1

Top reality shows in 2004-05* Viewers (Network) (In millions)

1. ÒSurvivor: VanuatuÓ (CBS) 19.5 2. ÒExtreme Makeover: Home EditionÓ 16.0 (ABC) 3. ÒApprentice 2Ó (NBC) 15.7 4. ÒAmazing Race: 5Ó (CBS) 12.8 5. ÒFear FactorÓ (NBC) 11.1 6. ÒWife SwapÓ (ABC) 10.0 7. ÒThe Biggest LoserÓ (NBC) 9.6 8. ÒNanny 911Ó (Fox) 8.6 9. ÒThe BachelorÓ (ABC) 8.3 10. ÒTrading SpousesÓ (Fox) 7.2

*Season through Nov. 7. Source: Nielsen Media Research