Ukraine Voters Face a Political Crossroads

As citizens head to the polls here today in a presidential runoff election marked by a bitter struggle between a pro-Western and a Russia-oriented candidate, retired nurse Ludmila Slizyuk is rooting for Moscow’s man, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich.

“Ukraine is a Slavic country. That’s why such countries as Belarus and Russia are closer to us,” explained Slizyuk, 71. “Yanukovich was just a simple worker. Then he studied. He had achievements. He’s from a mining area, and he understands our lives better.”

But for Svitlana Brovarets, a restaurant dishwasher, it is opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko who holds out the promise of a better life in a country that has faced poverty in the years since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. “I hope everything will get better -- education, hospitals, prices,” she said, adding that in a recent televised debate, Yushchenko seemed more presidential.

The face-off between Yushchenko, widely viewed as a free-market democratic reformer, and Yanukovich -- a former Communist manager who is popular in Ukraine’s largely Russian-speaking east -- is widely seen as a struggle over whether this country of about 48 million will turn decisively toward warmer ties with Western Europe and the United States or edge back into a tighter relationship with Russia.

Yushchenko narrowly won the first round, in a field of 24 candidates, with 39.9% of the vote to Yanukovich’s 39.3%. Some view the election as a referendum on the 10-year rule of the outgoing president, Leonid D. Kuchma, who backs Yanukovich.

Yushchenko, whose wife, Kateryna, is a Ukrainian American born in Chicago, draws his strongest support in western Ukraine, which chafed under Soviet rule and now looks to the European Union as a role model.

Yanukovich hails from the country’s industrialized east, where many feel greater cultural affinity with Russia. He has pledged to make Russian a second official language. In Monday’s debate, he made his closing remarks in Russian, which he speaks more fluently than Ukrainian.

Both men insist that they want good relations with all their neighbors. But Yushchenko has made it clear that he will place greater emphasis on moving Ukraine toward membership in the European Union and NATO, whereas Yanukovich has focused on economic ties with Russia.

The importance of the vote -- and fears that authorities may not conduct an honest count -- has brought an extraordinary level of international attention to the election, with groups such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe sending large observer missions. President Bush dispatched Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.), the head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as his personal envoy to monitor the vote.

Western efforts to press for a fair campaign and transparent vote count are presented simply as support for democracy. But in a country where international observers have severely criticized previous elections as unfair, the presence clearly benefits Yushchenko.

Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, for his part, spoke favorably of Yanukovich in an hourlong televised interview during a visit here last month, making his preference clear.

At a news conference here Friday, Lugar held out a carrot for an accurate vote count but also alluded to State Department warnings against cheating.

“If a free and fair election occurs here ... this is going to enhance the relationship of the United States and Ukraine in many fields,” he said, adding that he would urge Kuchma and Yanukovich to “instruct their followers, and those with whom they have some influence, to take seriously the fact the world is watching.”

In a report after the first round of voting Oct. 31, the foreign observers, including the OSCE, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the Council of Europe and others, accused state-run TV and other broadcast media of pro-Yanukovich bias and criticized government obstruction of opposition activities.

During the second round of campaigning, Yushchenko has had somewhat improved access to television, adding to hopes among his supporters that he may win by a margin large enough that authorities will have no choice but to accept defeat.

Bitterness between the two camps has been exacerbated by a mysterious illness Yushchenko suffered in September. He alleges that he was poisoned in an assassination bid -- which his doctors in Austria have said they can neither rule out nor prove.

Many Yanukovich supporters -- encouraged by campaign advertising -- believe that Yushchenko, 50, is so ill with some mystery disease that he belongs in a hospital, not the president’s office. “If I saw him, I’d say, ‘You’re a sick person. Why do you want this burden? Go get your health taken care of,’ ” said Slizyuk, the retired nurse.

In Monday’s televised debate, Yushchenko hit hard at Yanukovich, 54, declaring, “This is not a conflict between two Viktors. This is a conflict of two world views, two moralities. Our choice is very simple. Either we live according to the code of ethics of the criminal underworld or we live like free and affluent people.”

Yushchenko’s reference to the criminal underworld was seen as an allusion both to his charges of corruption among Ukraine’s political and economic elite and to revelations that, as a youth, the prime minister served prison time on charges of robbery and assault.

A biography distributed on behalf of Yanukovich says that “having suffered through a very tragic and tough childhood ... the prime minister acknowledges regrettable youthful indiscretions, resulting in criminal charges that were eventually overturned by a Ukrainian court.”

Opponents acknowledge that a court expunged his criminal record decades ago but question the reasons.

In the debate, Yanukovich recalled the Communist era with the nostalgia felt by many older people here, and portrayed Yushchenko -- a former prime minister and Central Bank head -- as among those responsible for post-Soviet poverty.

“I’ve been thinking why has it occurred in our country that we used to be a strong, a mighty state, and then overnight we became poor,” Yanukovich said. “We remember well that in 1991 none of us expected that our country would end up in such a difficult situation, and that our citizens would become poor overnight, that is, they became dependent and oppressed people.”

Yanukovich -- who was a regional official before he became prime minister two years ago -- described himself as “a new person here in Kiev” and claimed credit for the strong economic growth of recent years, including a 13% annual growth rate this year. A factory manager and Communist Party member in the Soviet era, Yanukovich entered politics only in 1997, with his appointment as deputy head of the eastern region of Donetsk.

In the debate, Yanukovich tried to turn the opposition’s argument on its head, portraying himself as the agent of change, and Yushchenko and his team as representatives of the old establishment:

“The new government has already come, Mr. Yushchenko, you simply didn’t notice. It has already started working, and it must be understood that it is not going anywhere.”

Yanukovich may have intended his comment as a statement of strength and confidence, but the opposition immediately seized on it as a veiled warning that the government would hang on to power at all costs.

Speaking at a news conference Friday, Yushchenko warned, “If we encounter large-scale falsification, we will lead people on to the streets and we will defend our rights.”

A student activist group, Pora, plans to set up a tent encampment in central Kiev beginning today to help keep up the pressure for a fair vote count.

“In the Central Electoral Commission they lie!” Pora said in a statement announcing its plans.

“At the Independence Square you will hear the truth!”