The Neocons Face an Uncertain Future

Re “The Neocons’ Last Gasp? Not So Fast,” Commentary, Nov. 17: Jacob Heilbrunn’s piece revels in the inexplicable promotions of various neocons in the Bush administration. He mentions Condoleezza Rice, who’s replacing Colin Powell, as a “formidable” secretary of State. He must be referring to the same Condoleezza Rice who said the now infamous Aug. 6, 2001, presidential daily briefing didn’t warn of any threats. That was the PDB titled “Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S.” The same PDB also said the FBI noted terrorist activity consistent with preparations for hijacking planes, among other things. What did Rice do with the information? That would be nothing, folks.

Heilbrunn muses about what plum job awaits current Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, who said that Iraqi oil would make it possible for that country to pay for its own reconstruction. He was only off by, what, $200 billion?

If Heilbrunn and others believe Rice and Wolfowitz deserve promotions, then we deserve the kind of leadership they’ve provided.

Christopher Meindl

Los Angeles

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Heilbrunn wrongly confuses individuals with ideas. He says I predicted that “neocons were headed for the ash heap of history” in President Bush’s second term. Not so. I argued that neoconservative ideas are now almost impossible to implement.

Rice may become the new secretary of State and John Bolton may be appointed as her deputy. But to believe that these and other appointments mean that the ideas of the neoconservatives will be put into practice over the next four years is to underestimate the hard realities that shape foreign policy in the real world.

Consider preemptive wars. It is hard to launch optional wars if you can’t finance them. Nor can you fight wars with a severely overstretched military. America’s ballooning fiscal deficit imposes constraints that were unimaginable in 2002. It will be a while before the U.S. starts another war of choice.

Spreading democracy abroad is another goal for which enthusiasm has diminished. Does Heilbrunn believe that neocons will be able to sell the administration and the public on another expedition to implant democracy abroad? Promoting elections in Iraq and Palestine, yes. But pushing for the democratization of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan or North Korea is an idea that now elicits more smirks than smiles in Washington these days.

Moises Naim

Editor

Foreign Policy magazine

Washington

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Only in the Alice-in-Wonderland worldview of the neocons, which Heilbrunn evidently shares, would “realist” be a pejorative.

Richard Leary

Los Angeles

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Heilbrunn’s prediction that Bush will “successfully stabilize” Iraq and that the upcoming election will be conducted “openly and fairly” would have been a bit more comforting if he also predicted the timing of our troop withdrawal and end to the violence.

Victor Salerno

Los Angeles