Florida Expected to Feel the Wrath of 2004 Hurricanes for Years to Come

The wide, flat beach that once adorned this resort city of 21,000 on the Atlantic Coast has melted away like a sugar cube in hot tea.

Half the motels, hotels and rental condos have closed because of damage from raging surf, wind and rain, and some may have to be torn down.

“If I owned a hotel or restaurant on the beach, I’d be in tears,” said Deborah Boyd, director of the New Smyrna Beach Area Visitors Bureau. Damage to the local tourism industry in Florida’s year of four hurricanes is depressing, she said.

Few -- if any -- of Florida’s 17 million residents have been left untouched by this year’s great storms, which killed 108 people in the state, and damaged more than one in five homes. A trail of destruction -- from Pensacola to Sanibel Island and the Atlantic shore -- serves as an awesome reminder of the downside of living in a sunny, lush region.

Though the immense whorls of wind and water called Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne are history, their consequences will mark this state for years, and in some cases, emit ripples felt far beyond its borders.

As Floridians rebuild homes and businesses, so much wood, metal and other construction materials may be urgently needed that the cost may skyrocket in other parts of the country.

Americans may find themselves drinking more Brazilian orange juice because of widespread damage to Florida groves. U.S. consumers are paying high prices for gasoline, natural gas and heating oil these days, and part of the blame belongs to one of this season’s storms, Ivan, which interrupted energy production in the Gulf of Mexico.

Fewer people may want to live in or visit the Sunshine State because of the chance it could again become Hurricane Alley, which could be an economic boon for other states. Ultimately, the hurricanes may even affect who occupies the White House come January.

Never has a state suffered such vast economic devastation from a natural disaster in such a brief time span as Florida this summer and autumn: homes and bridges destroyed, power and telecommunications systems severed, beachfront properties smashed by storm surges, hotels left without guests, golf courses forsaken by players.

Total losses to private and public property, according to preliminary estimates, could total $40 billion to $60 billion, said David Denslow, director of the Economic Analysis program of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida.

However huge the losses are, the storms are “not going to destroy the state,” said Denslow, a member of Gov. Jeb Bush’s Council of Economic Advisors.

Although the economy may be depressed in the near term, he says, it will probably perk up in a few months, in large part because of the expected infusion of cash from insurance payments and federal reconstruction assistance.

One longer-term question is whether the hurricanes will discourage large numbers of baby boomers, many on the cusp of retirement, from moving to Florida in the years ahead.

Last year, Florida’s population grew by 435,000, the largest gain since 1970. Builders have been putting up houses and apartments in anticipation of baby boomer retirements.

“Talk to people now, you’d say, it will reduce retiree flow,” Denslow said. “But in six months, people may have forgotten about it.”

The hurricanes have provided an unexpected chance for the Bush brothers -- President Bush and Florida Gov. Jeb Bush -- to demonstrate that they are in command and in touch with people’s problems in a key battleground state in the presidential election.

After each hurricane, President Bush visited a disaster area, comforting victims, promising speedy and generous federal assistance and, in general, “acting presidential,” said Roger Handberg, chairman of the political science department at the University of Central Florida.

No one can say with certainty how much attention Floridians are paying to politics. There have been complaints that the Federal Emergency Management Agency hasn’t moved fast enough to hand out tarps to cover damaged roofs or move in RVs to house the homeless.

“The question is whether this will turn into a wave of outrage that will turn against the president,” Handberg said.

For Floridians whose livelihoods depend on tourism, “there is no question there is a significant loss of business,” said Abraham Pizam, dean of the Rosen College of Hospitality Management at the University of Central Florida. The industry is the state’s top moneymaker, generating more than $50 billion a year.

From coastal motels and restaurants devastated by the storms to unsold tickets at Orlando-area theme parks, Pizam estimated the total tourism losses at $1 billion. But the message from industry leaders to the rest of the country is: Florida is open again for business.

“One aspect that I think has been overlooked is that commercial buildings, those at the theme parks and other places, really, came through this fine, with [a] minimal amount of damage,” said Bill Peeper, president of the Orlando-Orange County Convention & Visitors Bureau.

The state’s agriculture industry, however, probably will not be so quick to regain its balance.

Casey Pace, director of public affairs for the Florida Citrus Mutual, the state’s main citrus growers organization, recently visited groves in Polk County, a citrus-producing area between Orlando and Tampa that was hammered by three of the four hurricanes. “They can point to the fruit on the ground and say, ‘Brown is from Charley, yellow from Frances and green from Jeanne,’ ” he said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday announced that because of storm damage, Florida growers would produce 27% fewer oranges in the coming season, which would mean the smallest crop in 11 years. The state’s grapefruit industry was pounded even harder, and the coming harvest will be 63% less than last season, and the smallest since 1937-38, the USDA said.

The volley of hurricanes may persuade some growers to sell out, especially if developers pay top dollar to convert their land into housing developments or shopping centers.

“Some people might leave the industry, but on the other hand you have folks who are third- and fourth-generation citrus farmers,” Pace noted. “This is what they do, all they know, and it’s hard to see them leaving. A lot, too, is going to depend on the kind of aid available from the federal government.”

The year proved to all Floridians that no matter where they lived, they were vulnerable to hurricanes.

Brenda Wiens, a clinical psychologist at the National Rural Behavioral Health Center at the University of Florida, said the “repeated bashing” by storms had escalated anxiety.

In the longer term, “we’ll probably see a fair number of people who will have post-traumatic stress disorder,” she said. “You’re going to see more conflicts breaking out. People get frustrated feeling no one’s taking care of their needs.”

Many people in hurricane-hit areas, though, appear to be coping by helping others.

“Part of the solution is people focusing on how they can come together as a community,” Wiens said.

Gov. Bush has said that from the rubble left by Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, a better Florida will rise. “On a long-term basis, this state will not only survive, it’ll rebound,” he said at a recent news conference.

In New Smyrna Beach, recovery from the 2004 hurricanes means rebuilding a place like Toni & Joe’s Cocktail Lounge, a beachfront fixture for about 50 years.

Owner Joe Granieri watched as the beachside deck, already undermined by Frances and the remnants of Ivan, was pounded to jagged fragments in the foaming surf stirred up by Jeanne. The wooden bar and barstools, beer coolers, mug freezers and up to 70 cases of beer were lost to the raging seas.

But Granieri, 53, whose parents started Toni & Joe’s, is determined to fix up the establishment and reopen within two months. “Our whole life has been this place here, and we have a huge following,” he said. “Everybody I’ve talked to wants us to rebuild.”