Jones Keeps His Hopes Up Despite Falling Numbers

Entering the final week of California’s U.S. Senate campaign, Republican challenger Bill Jones is tying his thin hopes of victory to a longshot alignment of the electoral stars -- a heavy Republican turnout, a light Democratic vote and support from independents and new voters.

Although public polls put incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer’s lead as high as 22 percentage points, Jones said over the weekend that internal campaign polls put him “down 9 or 10” points -- still a wide margin -- as he sought to add an optimistic hue to a pessimistic picture.

“A lot of this is going to have to do with the kind of turnout that takes place in California,” Jones told reporters here, laying out a hoped-for scenario of a strong Republican grass-roots effort, a rightward tilt by new voters and a dampened Democratic turnout.

But even Jones isn’t betting on his own success. As of Oct. 13, his campaign owed more money -- $850,000, including to unpaid staff -- than the $327,000 it had in the bank, according to federal campaign reports. And his promised $2-million personal investment has not materialized.

“I’m still working on it, honestly,” said Jones, whose personal worth stands to rise by more than $20 million in a delayed merger between Pacifica Ethanol Inc., which he founded last year, and Florida-based Accessity Corp. “But I’m not in a position to do it yet.”

Most analysts believe it’s too late anyway. The independent voters that Jones is hoping for were breaking 46%-16% for Boxer in a Times poll published last week.

And although television is the most effective way of reaching voters in a state nearly 800 miles long with at least five large markets, the cash-strapped Jones campaign probably will not air any TV ads before election day -- a possible first for a statewide race in the modern era.

Boxer, meanwhile, is spending about $7 million on television and radio ads, and as of Oct. 13 still had nearly $1.5 million in the bank, with debts of $26,000.

The candidates’ appearances here Saturday seemed to sum up the overall campaign. Jones spoke to a breakfast session of the California state conference of the National Assn. for the Advancement of Colored People, a 7:40 a.m. talk that drew about 50 people, some of whom distractedly looked at reports and other papers as Jones sought to portray Boxer -- who has a 93% rating on NAACP issues -- as an ineffective legislator.

“What good is an incumbent who espouses causes for 22 years in Congress, failing to make any significant ground on these issues?” Jones asked, saying that in 12 years in the Senate, Boxer had sponsored only six bills that were signed into law.

Four hours later, Boxer spoke in the same room at a luncheon for more than 200 people, many of whom scurried to the front to snap pictures of her at the head table, where state NAACP president and Democratic activist Alice A. Huffman scathingly denounced Jones as “ignorant of the facts” and “clearly out of touch with the members of the NAACP.”

Boxer told reporters later that Jones’ attack on her legislative success rate shows that he “doesn’t understand the legislative process.” Sponsorship of legislation, she said, is not a marker of success in a legislative body where compromise rules the day.

Campaign manager Rose Kapolczynski said 96 Boxer initiatives -- including amendments -- have been enacted while she was in the Senate. Twenty-two free-standing bills introduced by Boxer have passed the Senate and one became law, she said.

Kapolczynski said Boxer’s record measures up with those of other colleagues elected in 1992, including some Republicans.

“He doesn’t know what he’s talking about. He makes things up,” Boxer said, adding that the list of legislative accomplishments doesn’t include her work to block the sale of San Francisco’s Presidio and against efforts to revise federal regulations on arsenic levels in drinking water and weaken testing for lead-poisoning among children.

It was a rare near-miss that Boxer and Jones came within hours of crossing paths here. The two have appeared on the trail together only once -- during an August debate -- and with few voters following the Senate race, their campaign stops have been lightly attended.

Though Jones has picked up editorial endorsements in such markets as San Diego and Fresno, his hometown, he has aroused little interest in the news pages and on TV in coastal markets, despite spending most of the campaign’s final weeks on the coast, home to most of the state’s voters and broadcast media. A news conference last week in Pasadena, part of Los Angeles’ massive media market, drew two reporters and no TV cameras.

Jones is scheduled to campaign in San Diego on Tuesday with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and he has scheduled news conferences later in the week on immigration and port security. But he plans to speak on talk radio, hoping to do for free what he’s been unable to afford: broadcast his argument that Boxer’s record endangers national security and that her liberal policies and combative style have eroded California’s influence in Washington.

Boxer, meanwhile, has been hiding in plain sight. Historically an aggressive campaigner, Boxer spent most of the last two weeks touring remote and sparsely populated counties in the northern third of the state and along the Sierra Nevada.

Boxer has billed the tour as an attempt to reach all the voters in the state. But it has also kept her -- and by extension, Jones -- out of the media spotlight, and precluded debates that could increase Jones’ low profile. Jones’ campaign staffers concede privately that it’s a smart tactic.

And it has worked: Only three major-market newspaper reporters joined Boxer for separate legs of the tour, though local media -- often one reporter -- have shown up. Boxer attracted a few TV cameras during a Fresno stop but otherwise has let her ads do her talking: 30-second spots that touch on the environment, healthcare and education but do not mention Jones or propose policies that might set off the kind of back-and-forth that defines contested campaigns.

On Friday, Boxer awoke about 30 miles south of Lake Tahoe in Alpine County’s remote Hope Valley, a gash in the mountains where fresh snow glistened and ice crunched underfoot. About 30 supporters crowded onto folding chairs and sapling-framed couches on the second floor of an A-frame chalet at Sorensen’s Resort, filling the space with wintry coziness as Boxer pushed hard on her theme that she remains a loyal voice for the environment, abortion rights and other Democratic stances.

Boxer once again sought to link Jones with the Bush administration, which she accused of walking away from such bipartisan goals as access to healthcare and education, government support for scientific research and a foreign policy rooted in international cooperation.

“This election for the Senate, and the presidential election, are not just about cosmetic differences between the candidates,” Boxer said.

“This election presents the clearest choice that I have ever seen.”