Close Contests in GOP Bastions Stoke Democrats’ Senate Hopes

Republicans remain favored to retain control of the Senate in Tuesday’s election, but Democratic hopes of moving into the majority have been bolstered by surprisingly tight races in a number of GOP strongholds.

In perhaps the biggest surprise of the high-stakes battle, Republican Sen. Jim Bunning of Kentucky has found himself in a tough fight, with Democrats citing what they term his “declining mental health” as a reason to replace him.

All 435 House seats are up for election, as they are every two years. Republicans are expected to retain their majority in the chamber, or even increase it. A redrawing of congressional districts in Texas, engineered by House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas), could give the party a gain of six seats from that state alone.

The importance of the fight for Senate control was spotlighted last week by word that Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist, 80, had thyroid cancer. The news underscored that the next Senate may be called upon to confirm one or more new Supreme Court justices.

Of the Senate’s 100 seats, 34 will be filled Tuesday; Democrats hold 19 of the seats sought, the GOP 15. Democrats seeking reelection include California’s Barbara Boxer.

Many of the seats Democrats are defending are in states that voted heavily for President Bush in 2000. Such is the case in South Dakota, where Republicans are hoping to make Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle the first Senate leader to lose his seat in half a century.

The GOP candidate, former Rep. John Thune, has charged that Daschle has put his party’s national interests ahead of the state’s. Republicans describe him as the ringleader of Democratic obstructionists who have blocked much of Bush’s legislative agenda.

Daschle, a three-term incumbent who has led his party in the Senate since 1995, has stressed that he uses his position to benefit the state.

It is the costliest Senate race of the year, with contributions coming from around the country, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Through mid-October, the candidates had spent $27.6 million, more than twice the amount spent on the Senate race in South Dakota two years ago.

Thune was also the Republican candidate in 2002, coming within 524 votes of unseating South Dakota’s other Democratic senator, Tim Johnson.

In South Dakota and several other states, Republicans think their Senate contenders will be helped by having Bush at the head of the ticket.

“That will be a very important benefit to our candidates,” said Sen. George Allen (R-Va.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

But John J. Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and former national Republican party strategist, questioned whether Bush would have any coattails. Republican Senate candidates, he said, “are on their own.”

Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Atlanta’s Emory University, noted that most of the closely contested Senate races were in GOP-leaning states. But the Democratic candidates in some of those states, he said, are conservative enough that they may appeal to Bush voters.

Sen. Jon Corzine (D-N.J.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said nine of the 34 Senate races were genuinely up for grabs. “We’re on pins and needles in every one,” he said.

The Senate is now made up of 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats and one independent who typically votes with the Democrats. Democrats would need to gain just one seat if Sen. John F. Kerry were elected president because the 50-50 tie would be broken by the vice president. If Bush were to win, the Democrats would need to add two seats.

Eight of the Senate races are for open seats, and among these two are almost sure to change party -- one each way.

Democrats are expected to lose the Georgia seat being vacated by Zell Miller to Republican Rep. Johnny Isakson. But Democratic state Sen. Barack Obama will almost certainly win the Illinois seat of Republican Peter Fitzgerald, who is retiring.

Democrats think they have a good chance of capturing the seats being vacated by Republicans in Colorado and Oklahoma. But whether Democrats can win the Senate probably hinges on whether they can retain some of their four open seats in the South.

When veteran Democratic senators in Florida, Louisiana, and North and South Carolina announced their retirements, the GOP had visions of picking up all four seats, given the South’s Republican tilt. That may still happen, but Democrats fielded strong candidates in Florida and the Carolinas.

Aside from Daschle, the two most-endangered incumbents are Republicans.

Although Alaska voted overwhelmingly for Bush in 2000, Sen. Lisa Murkowski is locked in a tight race with Democrat Tony Knowles, a former two-term governor. Weighing against Murkowski is public anger over the fact that her father, Frank H. Murkowski, appointed her to fill the final two years of his Senate term when he was elected governor in 2002.

In Kentucky, polls have shown a narrowing of Bunning’s lead over his Democratic challenger, state Sen. Daniel Mongiardo. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has poured more than $1 million into the race in recent weeks. The campaign committee has called Bunning “mentally impaired.”

Bunning, a baseball Hall of Fame pitcher who was elected to the Senate in 1998 by about 6,000 votes, has accused members of Mongiardo’s staff of encountering Bunning’s wife at a picnic and leaving her “black and blue.” And Bunning has said his opponent, the grandson of Italian immigrants, looks like a son of former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

Bunning apologized for that remark and demanded an apology from Mongiardo for spreading “horrible rumors” about Bunning’s mental health. The 73-year-old Bunning released letters from two physicians saying he was in excellent health.

Bunning’s actions prompted the Louisville Courier-Journal, in an Oct. 13 editorial titled “What’s wrong with Bunning?,” to remark: “Sen. Bunning apparently can’t grasp that the reason for all the speculation about his health and stability is his own very visible, very offensive behavior.”

In the last few days, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ran a TV ad featuring footage of Bunning telling reporters, “I don’t watch the national news, and I don’t read the paper.”

Which party will emerge as the Senate majority may not be known for a month. Recounts are possible in several close races, and there will be a Dec. 4 runoff in Louisiana if no candidate gets 50% of Tuesday’s vote. There are three Democrats and one Republican on Tuesday’s ballot.

No matter which party wins the majority, the election promises to bring greater diversity to the Senate.

Obama is expected to become the third black senator since Reconstruction. And Mel Martinez, a GOP Senate candidate in Florida, and Ken Salazar, a Democratic Senate candidate in Colorado, are attempting to become the first Latinos to serve in the Senate since 1976.

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Key races

U.S. Senate

The GOP holds a narrow majority in the Senate; there are 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats and one independent who typically votes with the Democrats. Of the 34 seats up for election this year, Democrats must defend 19 -- including Barbara Boxer’s in California -- and Republicans 15. Here are the races that have drawn the most attention:

Alaska

Tony Knowles (D), former two-term governor

Lisa Murkowski (R), incumbent

Murkowski is widely viewed as the most endangered Senate Republican. She is locked in a tight race against Knowles. Murkowski’s appointment by her father, Gov. Frank Murkowski, to the Senate seat he previously held has emerged as a major issue.

South Dakota

Tom Daschle (D), incumbent

John Thune (R), former U.S. representative

Republicans are hoping to make Daschle the first Senate leader to lose his seat in 50 years. Thune almost won the state’s other Senate seat in 2002. Republicans have attempted to portray Daschle as an obstructionist blocking President Bush’s agenda. Daschle emphasizes all he has done for the state with his clout as leader.

Colorado

Pete Coors (R), businessman

Ken Salazar (D), state attorney general

Salazar has been leading brewing magnate Coors in the polls in the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell. Colorado leans Republican, but Salazar is a popular statewide politician.

Florida

Betty Castor (D), former state education commissioner

Mel Martinez (R), former U.S. Housing and Urban Development secretary

Castor and Martinez are in a close race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Bob Graham. Martinez and Colorado’s Ken Salazar are vying to become the first Latinos to serve in the Senate in more than 25 years.

Louisiana

Chris John (D), U.S. representative

David Vitter (R), U.S. representative

Vitter has led a crowded field of four major candidates, including John, in the polls. If no candidate receives 50% of the vote, the two top vote-getters will meet in a Dec. 4 runoff. No Republican in the state has been elected to the Senate since Reconstruction.

North Carolina

Erskine Bowles (D), top Clinton administration aide

Richard Burr (R), U.S. representative

Bowles is battling Burr for the seat vacated by Sen. John Edwards, the Democratic vice presidential candidate. Bowles lost a bid for the Senate two years ago.

Oklahoma

Brad Carson (D), U.S. representative

Tom Coburn (R), former U.S. representative

Carson is locked in a tight race with Coburn -- and doing surprisingly well in a heavily Republican state. Coburn, a physician, was thrown on the defensive when an old lawsuit was unearthed accusing him of sterilizing a woman against her will.

South Carolina

Jim DeMint (R), U.S. representative

Inez Tenenbaum (D), superintendent of education

Tenenbaum has narrowed the gap between her and DeMint after assailing him for supporting a national sales tax. DeMint is still favored in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Ernest F. Hollings because the state is heavily Republican and pro-Bush.

Kentucky

Jim Bunning (R), incumbent

Dan Mongiardo (D), state senator

Perhaps the October surprise of the Senate campaign is this race, where Mongiardo has narrowed the gap between himself and Bunning. Democrats accuse Bunning of being out of touch and question his intellectual fitness for a second term.

Illinois

Alan Keyes (R), talk-show host

Barack Obama (D), state senator

Obama is virtually assured of succeeding retiring GOP Sen. Peter Fitzgerald, which would make him the third black to serve in the Senate since Reconstruction. Obama is running against Keyes, a Maryland transplant and staunch conservative. The campaign is the first Senate race to pit two African Americans against each other.

U.S. House of Representatives

All of the House seats are on the ballot. Republicans, who outnumber Democrats 227 to 205, with one independent and two vacancies, are expected to retain their majority. Some of the hot races:

California (20th District)

Roy Ashburn (R), state senator, Fresno

Jim Costa (D), former state senator, Bakersfield

The race to succeed retiring Rep. Calvin Dooley (D-Hanford) is the closest thing to a contested House race in the state.

Connecticut (2nd District)

Rob Simmons (R), incumbent

Jim Sullivan (D), city councilman

Simmons is facing a strong challenge from Sullivan, who has tried to portray Simmons as too close to Bush in the Democratic-leaning district.

Georgia (12th District)

Jim Barrow (D), county commissioner

Max Burns (R), incumbent

Burns, a freshman, is a top target for the Democrats, who consider his 2002 election in a Democratic-leaning district a fluke.

Illinois (8th District)

Melissa Bean (D), businesswoman

Phillip Crane (R), incumbent

Crane, the longest-serving Republican in the House, is facing a strong challenge from Bean in a suburban Chicago district.

New York (27th District)

Brian Higgins (D), incumbent

Nancy Naples (R), Erie County comptroller

Higgins and Naples are running for the seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Jack Quinn, a moderate Republican who was popular in the labor-oriented district.

Pennsylvania (6th District)

Jim Gerlach (R), incumbent

Lois Murphy (D), attorney

Democrats have targeted Gerlach because of his narrow victory in 2000 in a district won by Democrat Al Gore in the presidential election.

Utah (2nd District)

Jim Matheson (D), incumbent

John Swallow (R), state representative

Matheson is the state’s lone Democrat in Congress, running in a district where Bush received 67% of the vote in 2000.

Texas

Five Democratic incumbents are facing tough races because of a Republican-drawn redistricting plan. Democratic Reps. Charles Stenholm and Martin Frost have been forced to run against Republican Reps. Randy Neugebauer and Pete Sessions. Other Democrats in competitive races are Reps. Nick Lampson, Max Sandlin and Chet Edwards.

Gubernatorial races

In the 11 states with gubernatorial races this year, Democrats hold six seats, Republicans five. At least six contests appear competitive. There are 28 Republican governors and 22 Democrats.

Missouri

Matt Blunt (R), secretary of state

Claire C. McCaskill (D), state auditor

This fight for an open seat may end up being the country’s closest gubernatorial battle. Democratic Gov. Bob Holden lost a primary battle to McCaskill, 51. She faces Blunt, 33, an Army reservist. Age and experience have become an underlying campaign theme.

Indiana

Mitch Daniels (R), former director of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget

Joe Kernan (D), incumbent

The state, expected to go heavily for President Bush, may see a party switch in the governor’s office, with the GOP wresting control for the first time in 16 years. Kernan, sworn in September 2003 after Gov. Frank O’Bannon died, faces a strong challenge from Daniels.

Utah

Jon Huntsman Jr. (R), former ambassador to Singapore

Scott Matheson Jr. (D), dean of the University of Utah Law School

This very Republican state could see a surprisingly close election for governor, potentially ending with the first Democrat elected to the office in 20 years. In the battle for an open seat, Huntsman, a well-known businessman in the state, faces Matheson, the son of a former governor and brother of one of the state’s House members.

New Hampshire

Craig Benson (R), incumbent

John Lynch (D), businessman

In a state that elects its governor every two years, Republican Benson is in a tight race against Lynch, a local furniture mogul. Benson’s campaign has tried to curb backlash from recent scandals that have plagued the state’s GOP.

Washington

Christine Gregoire (D), state attorney general

Dino Rossi (R), state senator

No Republican has been governor in 20 years, but Rossi’s backers believe the state’s economic woes may spark a change in control.

Montana

Bob Brown (R), secretary of state

Brian Schweitzer (D), former Senate candidate

Faced with dismal job approval ratings, Republican Gov. Judy Martz took a pass on a reelection bid. Given Martz’s unpopularity, this may be the best chance Democrats have of taking a Republican-held seat.

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Reported by Times staff writer Richard Simon