Ventura County Set to Grow, Prosper

Ventura County’s economy is poised for stronger growth in 2005, with home prices increasing, more jobs being created and household income on the rise.

An economic survey to be presented at a seminar in Oxnard today by UC Santa Barbara’s Economic Forecast predicts retail sales will grow more than 7% to $8.9 billion while median household income will reach $81,100, up $3,700 from 2004.

“It’s going to be a pretty good year for people in Ventura County,” said economist Bill Watkins, executive director of the forecast project. “The economy is on an upswing, no doubt.”

Despite the upbeat projections, Watkins warned that traffic congestion looms as a threat to growth.

From 1994 to 2004, Ventura County’s population grew by roughly 100,000 to a total of 802,400. In the same period, the number of vehicles registered in the county jumped by nearly 127,000.

“I call it the ‘traffic paradox,’ ” Watkins said. “It will go up whether the population goes up or not and it’s going to get worse no matter what we do.”

Last November, Ventura County voters soundly rejected a half-cent sales tax measure that would have paid for major transportation projects and transit programs.

Watkins said political leaders must find other ways to fund infrastructure improvements. In the short term, he suggested better coordination of bus and train schedules to encourage greater use of mass transit.

Meanwhile, the county’s economy continued its forward march in 2004. Its gross regional product -- the value of all goods and services produced locally -- grew 5.9% to an estimated $46.1 billion. It is expected to rise an additional 6.5% this year to $49.1 billion, and expand at a steady rate to a projected $63.1 billion in 2009.

And after a lean 2004, when just 909 jobs were added to county payrolls, local employers are expected to create 3,826 positions this year that would bring total employment to 308,777, according to the UC Santa Barbara forecast.

It also predicts additional job creation through 2009, when employment is expected to reach 334,504.

The county jobless rate, at 4.9% in 2004, is expected to drop to 4.6% this year and decline to 4.4% in five years.

Home prices jumped 27% last year to a median price of $587,800 for an existing single-family house. A typical county home should add an additional $93,000 in equity this year, according to the forecast. UC Santa Barbara predicts local home prices will experience double-digit increases through 2009, when a median-priced residence is expected to go for $1.07 million.

But as prices continue to soar, the number of households that can afford to buy a home continues to drop. In 1994, 43.7% of residents could pay the median price, the point at which half the homes sell for more and half for less.

That percentage dropped to 17.5% last year and is expected to remain below 20% during the next five years.

Rental rates, by contrast, only modestly increased in 2004.

Rents went up about 2.4% last year to $1,374 for a two-bedroom apartment, despite a countywide vacancy rate near 3%.