Allawi Will Make Longshot Bid to Keep His Job

One day after the dominant Shiite-led coalition unanimously nominated interim Vice President Ibrahim Jafari to lead the new Iraqi government, interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi said Wednesday that he would stand as a rival candidate for the job and try to build a winning bloc by reaching out to other political slates.

The bid by the secular Shiite Muslim Allawi against the religious Jafari, the head of the Shiite-based Islamic Dawa Party, is a longshot because Jafari’s slate will hold a slight majority in the transitional national assembly.

But with a two-thirds majority needed to vote in a prime minister, Allawi’s effort was the beginning of what could be a drawn-out sequence of negotiations among the country’s political players, and, ultimately, a test of wills in which each slate with seats in the new assembly would seek to maximize its leverage and put its imprint on the makeup and direction of the new government.

Closed-door consultations reportedly were taking place Wednesday, with Jafari’s coalition trying to come to consensus on its candidate preferences for the government’s main posts. Those jobs include president, two deputy presidents, speaker of parliament and key government ministries, such as defense and internal security.

Direct consultations with other parties, particularly the Kurdish alliance, were expected to follow in a few days.

As it stands, the United Iraqi Alliance, which nominated Jafari, holds 140 of the 275 assembly seats and would need to secure 44 votes from outside its ticket to win the prime minister’s job and form the government. Allawi’s Iraqi List would need to find at least 144 votes from other slates to win.

The United Iraqi Alliance’s position also appeared to be strengthened by reports Wed- nesday that two small parties with assembly seats had joined it, giving it nine more votes, for a total of 149 of the 184 votes needed for a two-thirds majority.

The requisite majority is within easy reach for Jafari if his slate manages to work out a deal with either Allawi’s list, which has 40 seats, or the Kurdish alliance, which has 75. Leaders of the Kurdish group have said they would like to reach accord with both slates to form a government of national unity.

They also wish to win support from Sunni Muslim parties that did not participate in the election, and therefore do not have seats in the assembly. It is believed that the country’s Sunni minority, which is the main base of the insurgency, would then be more likely to participate in the political process.

With either the Kurds or Allawi’s slate in position as possible kingmaker, both insist that they will hold out for key posts in the new government and guarantees on sensitive issues such as federalism and secular governance.

Jafari, a 58-year-old doctor, has signaled willingness to work with others and moderate his party’s Islamist platform to take into account the diverse views of secular and non-Shiite parties.

But the results of the Jan. 30 election, in which the United Iraqi Alliance won nearly half the votes, and a majority of seats in parliament, means Allawi’s slate and the Kurds are too weak to construct a government even if they pool their votes. Their only hope would be to secure large-scale defections from the winning alliance.

Although many alliance members are more secular than Jafari, the unanimous front the group presented Tuesday in nominating him for prime minister suggests that a large-scale vote swing is highly unlikely.

Veteran exile leader Ahmad Chalabi, a secular Shiite and Jafari’s main rival for prime minister within the slate, underlined Tuesday that the unity of the coalition was his main priority. Chalabi has been in a political feud with Allawi’s camp, which seemingly would make his defection to the Iraqi List unlikely.

At a news conference, Allawi gave no hint of where he expected to find the additional support he would need to win. He said only that he sought a “democratic coalition that believes in Iraq and its principles.”

As a secular politician who advocates a liberal model of government, Allawi might argue that he would be more appealing than Jafari to the United States, although it is unclear whether that would be a help or hindrance in Iraqi politics.

He might also say that he would be more able to credibly reach out to Sunni Arab elements who suspect Jafari of being too closely tied to Shiite-led Iran.

Allawi made such appeals during his campaign without success. Despite heavy advertising and high visibility, his slate won only 14% of the vote.

Though they have almost no chance of prevailing by themselves, Allawi and the Kurds could play the role of spoiler if they are not satisfied.

It is unclear what would happen if a stalemate occurred, but the pressure to form a new government could force new candidates or new coalitions to emerge.