Numbers Still Add Up for Dodgers

By Steve Henson

July 14, 2005 12 AM PT

Times Staff Writer

Set aside Dodger problems for a moment. Forget the barrage of injuries, the failure to hit with runners in scoring position, the holes on defense, the inability to prevent stolen bases.

The front office is acutely aware of those issues. In focusing on solutions, however, General Manager Paul DePodesta and his lieutenants draw comfort from numbers.

And it figures there are figures that suggest the Dodgers could contend for the National League West Division.

Despite a 40-48 record that has left them 7 1/2 games behind first-place San Diego and two games behind second-place Arizona.

Despite a 28-46 mark since a 12-2 start.

Despite going 2-11 and 2-5 on their last two trips and crawling into the All-Star break on a four-game slide.

Research shows that most teams win about half of their one-run games over a long stretch. The Dodgers, in fact, are 10-10 in one-run games.

But the Padres are 18-10 and the Diamondbacks are 17-12 in one-run games, suggesting they’ve been lucky so far and due for a correction in the second half.

The Dodgers also are 24-18 against West Division opponents, as are the Diamondbacks. The Padres are 22-18. This suggests that when September rolls around and the schedule is almost entirely intra-divisional games, the Dodgers will have as good a shot as anybody.

“Any other year, any other division, we might be 13-14 games down,” Manager Jim Tracy said. “The way our division is unfolding, it might take only 85-86 wins.”

The question for DePodesta is this: How does he bolster the roster so the Dodgers win enough over the next eight weeks to be in a position to make September count?

He said the priorities are acquiring an outfielder and a relief pitcher before the July 31 trade deadline.

“If we have to give up talented young players, I’d rather get somebody who would be here beyond this season,” DePodesta said.

As for immediate needs, the Dodgers must go 45-29 the rest of the way to win 85 games, which could be all it takes in the mild, mild West. The Padres must go 36-37 to finish with 84 victories.

The Diamondbacks are a good bet to backslide because they’ve given up 85 more runs than they have scored. The Dodgers have given up 38 more runs than they’ve scored, an indication they are the better team over a full season.

Of all the numbers, though, the most important will be the Dodger win-loss record the next two to three weeks. The further they fall behind the Padres, the less likely it is they would trade top prospects for medium- to high-salaried veterans.

“I’m not a front-office guy, so I don’t have all the facts to make a decision like that,” veteran second baseman Jeff Kent said. “What I do know is they have difficult choices.

“Paul has to be very close to the fence. And regardless of which choice he makes, there will be repercussions on the other side of that fence.”

Owner Frank McCourt has made it clear to DePodesta that he wants the Dodgers to win this year. DePodesta has said numerous times that his charge is to balance building a perennial contender with winning now.

“I still feel we have a responsibility to make that happen,” he said.

But there soon could reach a point of no return. Falling further behind means shifting gears and dumping salaries.

Do the Dodgers try to get something for starting pitcher Jeff Weaver, who is in the last year of a contract that is paying him $9 million?

Weaver has expressed a desire to remain a Dodger, but it is unlikely he would be offered an extension for an average annual value equal to his current salary. And it is just as unlikely that his agent, Scott Boras, would agree to an extension for less.

Odalis Perez, who is in the first-year of a three-year, $24 million contract, is another pitcher who could be shopped along with any number of the younger, inexpensive Dodgers.

DePodesta has had trouble finding willing trading partners, but he has plenty of inexpensive trade bait, from the low minors to the Dodger clubhouse.

“The question isn’t about dollars -- we have money to spend -- it’s about players,” he said. “What are we willing to give up to strengthen the 2005 club? We have a lot of talented prospects.”

There are nine rookies on the roster -- Jason Repko, Mike Edwards, Oscar Robles, Mike Rose, Cody Ross, D.J. Houlton, Chin-Feng Chen, Yhency Brazoban and Franquelis Osoria.

Three other Dodgers made their major league debuts this season but have been demoted: Derek Thompson, Norihiro Nakamura and Steve Schmoll. Giving up on the season could trigger a new wave of rookies getting called up in September, and these would be the organization’s top prospects.

Candidates would include pitchers Chad Billingsley, Edwin Jackson, Jonathan Broxton and Justin Orenduff, catchers Dioner Navarro and Russell Martin, and infielders James Loney, Delwyn Young, Joel Guzman, Willy Aybar and Andy LaRoche.

For now, the focus is on getting outfielder Milton Bradley, shortstop Cesar Izturis and third baseman Jose Valentin off the disabled list and into the lineup. Left-handed relief pitcher Wilson Alvarez is also due to be activated soon.

“We need to get healthy and stay healthy,” DePodesta said. “Something that gives us confidence is we have played very well in our division, and those games will be a big part of the second half.

“We need to be more productive than we’ve been of late, no doubt. The frustrating part is we have been in games right until the end. A lot of guys have been thrust into roles that weren’t intended for them. I have a lot of admiration for our guys running out there every day.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

The second half

The Dodgers’ schedule after the All-Star break:

* at Philadelphia, Tuesday-July 21

* at New York, July 22, 23, 24

* vs. Cincinnati, July 25, 26, 27, 28

* vs. St. Louis, July 29, 30, 31

* at Washington, Aug. 2, 3, 4

* at Pittsburgh, Aug. 5, 6, 7

* vs. Philadelphia, Aug. 9, 10, 11

* vs. New York, Aug. 12, 13, 14

* at Atlanta, Aug. 16, 17, 18