Holiday Retail Forecast Raised

The sales outlook looks brighter for the holiday season, a retail trade group said Monday.

The National Retail Federation raised its growth forecast for the Christmas season to 6% from its September forecast of 5%.

“When we had made the forecast, Katrina had just hit,” said Rosalind Wells, economist for the Washington-based trade group.

“Everything looked pretty gloomy.” But she said that since then she had seen strong economic indicators.

Wells cited stronger-than-expected retail sales in October and falling gasoline prices as the catalysts for upgrading the holiday forecast.

“We have so much momentum going into the holiday season, so much more than we anticipated,” she noted.

Total retail sales for last year’s November-December period rose 6.7%, compared with the previous year. The figure excludes sales at automotive dealerships, gas stations and restaurants.

Meanwhile, Michael P. Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers, said he was sticking with his growth forecast for a 3% to 3.5% increase in sales at stores open at least a year for the November-December period. Same-store sales are considered the best indicator of a retailer’s health.