RAISED HOPES
HAMBURG, Germany -- Four years after Brazil’s Cafu lifted the World Cup into the night sky amid a shower of celebratory silver confetti in Yokohama, Japan, the most coveted trophy in soccer once again is up for grabs.
The 32-nation tournament starts today in Munich, where Germany will play Costa Rica in the first of 64 games that will captivate much of the sporting world over the next month.
Among those on hand will be two of soccer’s greatest names, Pele and Diego Armando Maradona, along with more than 150 other former World Cup winners, including 79-year-old Alcides Ghiggia, who scored Uruguay’s winning goal in its upset of Brazil in the 1950 final in Rio de Janeiro.
The 2006 party reaches its climax at the Olympic Stadium in Berlin on July 9, where one team will write its name in the history books.
Since the first World Cup in 1930, only seven nations -- Uruguay, Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, Argentina and France -- have won it. This time around, Uruguay failed to qualify, but the other six, plus the Czech Republic and the Netherlands, each are favored to a varying degree to win this year’s Cup. Spain is considered a dark horse, as are Croatia and the Ivory Coast.
The World Cup always produces its share of surprises, however, and no team can be certain of anything, not even defending champion Brazil. As Sunil Gulati, the president of U.S. Soccer, put it recently, if college basketball has its March Madness, then this is June Madness.
History provides two possible clues in seeking the eventual winner:
* Only once, when Brazil won in Sweden in 1958, has a non-European team won on European soil.
* On six occasions in the 17 World Cups played since 1930, the home team has won it all -- Uruguay in 1930, Italy in 1934, England in 1966, Germany in 1974, Argentina in 1978 and France in 1998.
Predictions have flowed like fine Rhine wine since qualifying play ended and the draw ceremony in December placed the 32 teams into eight groups of four for first-round play. Each team plays the others in its group, with the top two finishers advancing to the round of 16.
After that, the tournament becomes a knockout event. It’s win or go home.
One of the world’s top strikers, Cameroon forward Samuel Eto’o of Spanish and European champion FC Barcelona, says this could be the year his continent has its breakthrough -- four years before South Africa becomes the first African World Cup host.
“I think all the African teams that are there are there for a reason,” he said last month.
“They have the means to live their dreams and go all the way. Because of their potential, I think everyone is putting their hopes in the Ivory Coast.”
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is pinning her hopes on Germany Coach Jurgen Klinsmann and his players. “Of course we can win the World Cup,” she said at December’s draw. “I am absolutely convinced of that. Home advantage can make the difference.”
If not, Klinsmann is likely to spend a lot more time at his Huntington Beach home and a lot less in Germany.
Predictions are a matter of the heart, of course.
For the hard of heart, an English company, Decision Technology, has used a computer program to create a mathematical formula to pick the World Cup winner.
This is what it looks like: P(n)=?ne-? over n!
Baffled? England’s Observer newspaper explains:
“For those with a degree in statistics: in the equation, ‘n’ is the number of goals scored, ‘?’ is the expected number of goals, ‘e’ is a natural logarithm, and the exclamation mark is ‘factorial’, a function of ‘n’. ‘P’ is the probability distribution of goals scored.”
So there you have it.
The company studied the scores of 4,500 games in 200 countries since 2002 to arrive at its forecast. So which country does Decision Technology say will win the World Cup? Brazil.
Sheer genius, that.
As always, refereeing decisions will play a part in determining the tournament’s outcome.
No World Cup has been free of officiating controversies, but the latest round of match-fixing and referee-bribing scandals in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands has tournament organizers paying close attention to the 21 men with the whistles.
“Perhaps I am putting my hand on a hot iron here, but I am certain they will act honestly and transparently,” Spain’s Angel Maria Villar, chairman of the FIFA Referee’s Committee, said Monday.
Just to be sure, all officials -- and all players -- signed a pledge that they would not engage in any “insider” betting and that their families would not place any wagers.
Against this background, the 2006 World Cup is set to kick off.
The final word belongs to Zinedine Zidane, the elegant French midfielder who led his country to its 1998 World Cup triumph and who will retire after Germany ’06.
“We can go far,” Zidane said. “We have the possibility to experience a great adventure.”
Today, for all 32 teams and their fans, the great adventure begins.
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BRAZIL
A team so deep that the second string could probably make a run at the final. Leading scorer Ronaldo is back, but Ronaldinho runs the show.
ENGLAND
Much of the nation held its breath until star Wayne Rooney’s broken foot proved to have healed enough to allow him to compete.
GERMANY
Jurgen Klinsmann, the Southern California-based coach, hopes to get the last laugh on his critics in the soccer establishment.
ARGENTINA
South American teams don’t win in Europe, but if this squad can get out of its Group of Death, it has the talent to bring an end to that tradition.
ITALY
A scandal playing out in its domestic league could prove a distraction, but a bigger concern is the health of several key players.
FRANCE
Who will show up for the Bleus, the team that won the title at home eight years ago, or the one that crashed out in the first round four years ago?
SPAIN
Always talented, but always underachieving. A weak first-round group and the return to form of scoring star Raul will work to its advantage.
NETHERLANDS
Twenty years ago in Germany, the great Dutch “Clockwork Orange” team fell short to the hosts in the final. Is the second time the charm?
CZECH REPUBLIC
The Czechs were the high-scoring darlings of the European Championships two years ago, and the same cast is back, led by forward Jan Koller.
IVORY COAST
Regarded as Africa’s strongest representative, the Elephants could make a splash behind English league stars Didier Drogba and Kolo Toure.
