Cautious optimism within art market

ART prices, which are being bid up by wealthy collectors in the U.S., Brazil, Russia, India and China, may falter if the global economy slows, according to a survey published last week in London.

About 74% of 150 collectors and dealers said an economic slowdown was the art market’s greatest risk, reported the surveyor, ArtTactic Ltd. Yet confidence that prices would be strong for six months had risen 15% since November, reflecting record-setting auctions in New York, the firm said.

The May survey showed that collectors, like stock investors, become more bullish as prices rise, while watching the downside. Some art market professionals said recent turbulence in emerging economies’ financial markets might herald a bear market in art, ArtTactic said.

Newly rich Russian, Chinese and Indian collectors have been “pushing prices to unprecedented levels,” it said.

ArtTactic was founded in 2001 by Anders Petterson, a former JPMorgan Chase & Co. bond trader who applies stock-market-style analysis to art trends and sells research to art buyers and sellers. ArtTactic first surveyed consumer confidence in May 2005 and published those results in November.

Contemporary art prices have quadrupled since 1995, according to index-maker Art Market Research. In recent years, they’ve been propelled by growth in the U.S. and emerging markets, where wealthy businessmen have started to buy their national art at international auctions.

ArtTactic also surveys confidence in individual artists. Cindy Sherman, Maurizio Cattelan, Takashi Murakami, Marlene Dumas and Elizabeth Peyton had all risen in the ranks since November. Collectors had become less bullish about Franz Ackermann, Kai Althoff, Jake and Dinos Chapman, Rosemarie Trockel and Luc Tuymans.

Those views represent about 105 collectors, including entrepreneurs and financial people -- a few from Petterson’s JPMorgan days -- plus 45 dealers, auctioneers, advisors and art commentators, said Petterson, who plans to publish a survey every May and November.