No Clear Winner in Ukraine

Former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich appeared headed for at least a partial political comeback here, with exit polls showing his pro-Moscow party taking first place in a parliamentary election Sunday.

Parties that supported Ukraine’s Orange Revolution against Yanukovich in 2004, however, were likely to win a combined majority of seats in parliament, the polls showed.

Sixteen months ago, Yanukovich lost power after massive protests forced a repeat runoff in a bitter presidential contest marred by widespread allegations of election fraud.

This time around, with the major parties and outside observers generally reporting the voting to be fair, the exit polls showed Yanukovich’s Party of Regions likely to get about one-third of the vote and the largest share of seats in parliament.

A bloc led by former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who was one of the leaders of the 2004 demonstrations, did unexpectedly well and was heading for second place.

The other leader of the Orange Revolution, President Viktor Yushchenko, did poorly, with his party trailing in third place.

A fiery politician, Tymoshenko played a key role in bringing Yushchenko to power in 2004 by mobilizing supporters for street protests. She then served as his first prime minister. In September, they split over allegations of corruption and differences on economic policy and the pace of changes. Tymoshenko favored radical economic moves and the president a more cautious approach.

With the election results divided, the future of this country of 48 million, which lies between Russia and central Europe, will depend heavily on whether the two can restore their partnership, which favored building a market economy with democratic foundations and a European orientation.

Yushchenko’s position as president is not at stake in this election, but under recent constitutional changes his powers have been reduced, and those of the prime minister increased. Moreover, his party’s apparent third-place finish probably will weaken his influence.

The widely watched Democratic Initiatives Foundation exit poll, sponsored by several Western embassies and foundations, showed Tymoshenko’s bloc receiving 23.4% of the vote and Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine party with 14.5%. The two parties, along with a smaller ally, would have 238 or 239 seats -- a majority in the 450-seat parliament -- if they can work out a coalition.

Yanukovich’s Party of Regions was receiving 32% of the vote, the exit poll indicated. Along with his allies, Yanukovich would have 211 or 212 seats in parliament, the poll indicated.

With nearly 11% of the vote counted, Yanukovich’s party had 24.7%, Tymoshenko’s bloc 23.8% and Yushchenko’s party 17.1%.

After casting his ballot, Yushchenko described the election as “very important in the history of Ukraine.”

“This will be the first honest and free election,” he said. “I’m in a great mood. I’m sure that democratic elections in Ukraine are a victory in themselves.”

Former President Leonid D. Kuchma and others have urged Yushchenko to join a “grand coalition” with Yanukovich. Such a coalition could promote more stable economic growth, improve strained ties with Russia and unify a country divided between its Ukrainian-speaking west and Russian-speaking east, its supporters say.

“The future of Ukraine depends on what choice the nation makes today,” Kuchma said. “It is to be decided today whether Ukraine will be united or whether it will split into conflicting groups.”

Yushchenko has kept open the possibility of a coalition with Yanukovich but has stressed that his preference is to work with groups that led the Orange Revolution.

Tymoshenko has said she would not enter a coalition with Yanukovich under any circumstances.

Speaking at a news conference Sunday evening, she stressed that the parties that backed the Orange Revolution appeared to have victory within their grasp -- if they could unite.

“The parties that stood on the same side of the barricades in the presidential election will have a majority, according to the exit polls,” Tymoshenko said. “Certainly I think we’re going in the right direction.”

Since her party would form the largest part of such a coalition, she should have the right to become prime minister, Tymoshenko said.

“The people are in a position to choose the government, the prime minister,” she said when asked whether she would be willing to let someone else have the post. “If we are to have democracy in Ukraine, we need to keep our ears to the ground, so to speak. We have to learn to listen to the people and their wishes.”

Yanukovich said at a news conference that he was ready to form a coalition with anyone willing to join him.

“We’re ready to work with all the parties elected to the parliament, since there is no coalition we wouldn’t agree to in order to achieve stability, peace and the renaissance of the economic power of Ukraine,” he said.

Dmitriy Krivko, 30, a businessman from Yanukovich’s stronghold in eastern Ukraine who voted Sunday in Kiev, said he hoped for a coalition between Our Ukraine and the Party of Regions. “We would like for them to unite, so as not to have Ukraine split into two opposing sides,” he said.

But many of those who supported the Orange Revolution hate the idea that Yanukovich might return to power. Many Ukrainians view Yanukovich’s party as representing powerful business groups in eastern Ukraine that have a history of corrupt dealings.

“The Party of Regions is part of Ukraine, and there are normal people in it who also worry about the fate of Ukraine. But I really don’t like the top 10 party leaders -- because of their past, and their present as well, the way they behave themselves,” said Nataliya Gonta, 53, a computer programmer who voted for Yushchenko’s party.

“I like the president, because I trust him,” Gonta said. “I think he’s a very moral person, and he’s for his country and his people.”

Many backers of Tymoshenko say she is the leader who has tried hardest to live up to the ideals and promises of the Orange Revolution.

“I think she’s a great woman and a good politician, and I think she’s cool,” said Aleksandra Mavlenkova, 26, an office worker. “She did a lot for Ukraine economically and politically. With her help, Ukraine will be a great country.”