Nigerians fear president has a ‘Plan B’ to remain in power

Like many University of Lagos students, Esther Onyens cheered when parliament rebuffed Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo’s push for a constitutional amendment to serve a third term. On campus, students heralded it as a boon for democracy in a country that has seen precious little of it.

Five months later, that euphoria has given way to a familiar cynicism that Nigerian politics may never change. “The election process is already a disaster,” said Onyens, 23, a history major. “Everyone has a demonic plan to stay in power.”

With less than six months before the April 2007 vote, many Nigerians now question whether the election will even take place. A group of opposition lawmakers known as the 2007 Movement says the president is secretly pursuing a “Plan B” that includes attempting to delay or sabotage the vote, installing an interim government and withholding funds from the Independent National Electoral Commission.

In October, the cash-strapped commission bounced a $15-million check for voting materials when the government refused to honor it.

“The dud check has now confirmed the fears that we’ve always had that there is a hidden agenda,” Charles Chukwuani, vice chairman of the opposition National Democratic Party, said recently. “There is a program not to conduct a credible election in Nigeria.”

Critics accuse Obasanjo of trying to foster an environment of political chaos and exploiting ethnic violence in the oil-rich Niger Delta region. In October, he declared a state of emergency in the Ekiti region in the face of political turmoil over the controversial impeachment of the governor there. Opponents called the move an ominous preview of a strategy Obasanjo might try next year, declaring a national state of emergency and invoking his constitutional powers to postpone elections.

“Ever since Obasanjo tried his elongation strategy and Nigerians didn’t allow it, he has been creating one problem after another,” said Anyakwee Nsirimovu, executive director of the Institute of Human Rights and Humanitarian Law in Port Harcourt.

Ask people on the streets of Lagos who they expect will win next year’s vote and many answer that they believe the president will remain in office. “Obasanjo is not going anywhere,” taxi driver Isaac Iyiolo said.

Obasanjo and his supporters scoff at the speculation. In recent weeks, the president has repeatedly insisted that he plans to step down next year, noting that the election will mark Nigeria’s first peaceful transfer of power from one civilian administration to another.

“He has a chance to make history,” said Akin Osuntokun, political advisor to the president. “He won’t trade that glory to do something illegal or unnecessary. He swore to uphold the constitution. He wants to set a standard for government in Nigeria.” Osuntokun attacked critics for “propagating cynicism. They just want to put the president on the defense at all times. They want to demonize him and weaken him.”

The debate is being closely monitored by the international community, which has grown increasingly frustrated with African leaders who have spoken strongly about democratic reforms and term limits, then dug in their heels when the time has come to step down. This year, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni secured a third term after ramming through a constitutional amendment widely condemned by Western leaders.

Critics of Obasanjo’s ruling People’s Democratic Party say he is also using his clout to manipulate the nation’s powerful anti-corruption agency into investigating and prosecuting his political enemies, including his own vice president, a onetime ally who broke ranks with the president this year by actively fighting the third-term bid.

The vice president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, was once considered the front-runner in next year’s race, but his future is in limbo after a fraud and embezzlement investigation by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission. He, in turn, has accused Obasanjo of misappropriating funds.

“Now the two people who are supposed to be leading the election are fighting with each other instead,” said Joseph Evah, a representative for the Ijaw community, an ethnic group in the delta. “They’re destroying each other.”

At the same time, politically motivated violence, which had largely abated in recent years, is back. Two gubernatorial candidates were assassinated this year. Others fear the lack of strong presidential candidates may tempt military leaders to step in. Since gaining independence from Britain in 1960, Nigerians have been rocked by one coup after another, until Obasanjo took office in 1999.

Adding to the political turmoil, two governors still face impeachment proceedings for alleged corruption, and Obasanjo replaced a third, the Ekiti official, with a retired general.

Even if Obasanjo steps down, political experts warn, progress toward the April 21 election is far behind schedule.

“Political parties don’t even have candidates yet,” said Akinyeye Yoni, a University of Lagos history professor. “There are no manifests or programs or campaigns yet. There’s even uncertainty about whether the transition will occur at all.”

Voter registration, a difficult and time-consuming process in Africa’s most populous nation, has barely begun. Results from a long-delayed national census have not been released.

The election commission recently revealed that it had bought only 43,000 voter-registration machines for nearly 120,000 polling stations, which double as registration centers. During a recent demonstration of the high-tech device in front of the National Assembly, the machine’s battery died.

“This commission is starving for funds and incapable of holding a fair election,” said Nsirimovu, the human rights advocate. “I think this is going to be the worst election in Nigerian history.”

edmund.sanders@latimes.com