Little knowledge can be a dangerous thing

NOW IS no time to back off the boys, and so just for the record, Grady Little had it all wrong.

Back in July he said the Dodgers would win 87 games this season, and although he did everything he could to make sure they finished with 87 -- starting Eric Somebody or Other, benching Kent, Garciaparra, Furcal, Drew and Lofton -- even the Dodgers scrubs were better Sunday than the Barry Bonds Giants.

Shows you what Little knows, and so the Dodgers finished with 88 wins, coming within a near-miss Arizona rally, though, of opening Little to further second-guessing.

A Dodgers victory coupled with a San Diego loss in Arizona on Sunday would’ve had the Dodgers playing at home Tuesday in the California afternoon sunshine against the St. Louis Cardinals.

And right now everyone wants to play the gagging Cardinals, who lost again on Sunday, but advanced to the playoffs because Houston fell. That’s what made Little’s decision to play an exhibition season-like lineup so debatable a day after celebrating Dodgers’ success to date.

Vin Scully asked Tom Lasorda at lunch before the game what he would’ve done, and Lasorda said, “We’d play to win it all.”

Someone suggested it might’ve been different had the Padres played earlier in the day, but listening to Little, it was much more important to him to keep Lowe & Co. in reserve than fight for home-field advantage. Tells you a little something about the starting rotation after Derek Lowe.

The Dodgers won, though, and the Padres survived a scary Arizona rally that fell just short of making the Dodgers the National League West champions, and so now the wild-card Dodgers will play on a chilly Wednesday night in New York.

The only difference between New York and St. Louis “is two hours in an airplane,” Little was saying before Sunday’s game. “Personally, I don’t care who we play.”

Reminded that he makes his living as a major league manager with all kinds of information at his disposal, and that everyone knows the Cardinals, who would have to play three games of a five-game series in L.A., are falling apart, having lost closer Jason Isringhausen, why not hope to play the weaker of the two playoff possibilities?

And more than that, the Mets have a loaded lineup, three games on their home field and Billy Wagner to close games.

“All that means something,” Little conceded, “but not more than having the starting pitcher [Lowe] locked up for the first game and making sure your best players are rested.”

The Padres went with their best Sunday, while Little was saying he “felt good about having” Somebody or Other pitch, which goes to show you he’s capable of saying most anything under pressure.

“This guy can hit, too,” said Little with a grin. “We just hope he’s in the game long enough to get an at-bat.”

No, this is not the time to back off the Dodgers, which was really the point after Saturday’s celebration. Why change things now with the Dodgers getting the chance to win a playoff series for the first time since 1988?

No one was suggesting the Dodgers use Lowe, but they had an experienced starter in Chad Billingsley, 6-4 this season, who might have been a better choice than someone who won’t even be on the team’s 25-man playoff roster.

Somebody or Other “won a game in New York earlier this year,” Jeff Kent said. “And that game might have been just as huge as this one.”

This one, though, was for the National League West title, which goes to show you titles aren’t as important in baseball as they once were.

It was more important to Little on Sunday to groom Billingsley for playoff bullpen duty than to start him, Billingsley coming in, all right -- in the sixth inning -- and getting the win.

GM Ned Colletti said he discussed the team’s final-game approach with Little, and agreed with the manager’s game plan. When challenged, Colletti started by asking, “So you wouldn’t rest Rafael Furcal?”

“Sure, come November,” I said. “Why not play hard all the way?”

“These guys have played hard to the finish line,” Colletti said, and although there’s no question they gave it their all in the first 161, why stop shy of the tape?

The Dodgers won, of course, because the Giants quit long ago, thereby making all the pregame chitchat moot. But as baseball fans know, when it comes to the playoffs, there’s a good chance Little is going to be second-guessed.

I MADE a point of visiting Bonds in the Giants clubhouse, since we might never see him play baseball again.

“We’re neighbors,” I told him. “You live in Beverly Hills, I’m in Placentia,” and although I thought he might suggest a neighborhood get-together, I got nothing in return.

That’s pretty much what you get now when you watch him play. He was just another out as far as the Dodgers were concerned, and now he becomes a free agent.

He said he won’t accept a contract calling for mostly incentives, and yet he can’t guarantee his body will hold up. It would be nice if everyone in baseball called his bluff, and offered him an incentive-filled contract. Or nothing.

BRAD PENNY started the All-Star game, but he probably won’t be called on to pitch for the Dodgers before Lowe, Hong-Chih Kuo and Greg Maddux.

THE DODGERS have won one playoff game since 1988 -- the greatest single accomplishment by a stiff in my lifetime, what with Jose Lima pitching a shutout against the Cardinals. Maybe that’ll inspire Mark Hendrickson.

*

T.J. Simers can be reached at t.j.simers@latimes.com. To read previous columns by Simers, go to latimes.com/simers.