French vote sets stage for a new political era

Setting up an electoral showdown that will bring a new generation to power in France, Nicolas Sarkozy of the ruling center-right party and Socialist Segolene Royal beat 10 other presidential candidates Sunday in a first-round vote.

A May 6 runoff will pit Sarkozy, a 52-year-old former interior and economy minister, against Royal, a 53-year-old former environment minister who aspires to be France’s first female president. The campaign promises to be tight, hinging on an emergent and volatile voting bloc that gave centrist Francois Bayrou a strong third-place finish.

With nearly all of the ballots counted, Sarkozy led with 31%, followed by Royal with 26%, Bayrou at 19% and far-right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen trailing with 11%. The 85% turnout was the highest since 1964, reflecting intense interest in a suspenseful election to replace two-term President Jacques Chirac, 74, who makes way for a generation of candidates born after World War II.

The election is seen as a turning point for France, which is the world’s sixth largest economy and a leader in the European Union. Although a U.S. ally, France has led opposition to the Iraq war and has promoted a strong EU to counter American influence. France also holds a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, giving it considerable diplomatic power.

The new president will have to tackle a profound malaise caused by unemployment, political disenchantment, youth riots and the difficulties of integrating a large Muslim immigrant population.

Sarkozy had consistently led opinion polls, which suggested that many voters see him as the best-qualified candidate. He calls for reforming a sluggish economy by cutting taxes and labor regulations. He has a tough law-and-order image and is regarded as more pro-American than many French politicians.

An upbeat Sarkozy told cheering supporters of his Union for a Popular Movement that the runoff race would fulfill the voters’ wish for an in-depth debate about the future.

“I hope this debate in the second round will be truly a debate of ideas,” Sarkozy said. “I want to tell all of the French that I want to protect them against violence, crime, exclusion.... I want to be able to talk about the French nation without being accused of nationalism.”

Plunge in the polls

A beaming Royal celebrated her triumph after a roller-coaster campaign. She won an internal primary against veteran rivals, impressing party members with her charisma and a message that tempered traditional leftist dogma. She proposes sending juvenile offenders to boot camps and giving prominence to the flag and national anthem.

But she plummeted in opinion polls as a result of party conflicts and verbal gaffes on foreign policy, an area in which the French expect presidents to excel. Nonetheless, the Socialists mounted an effective get-out-the vote campaign. Royal also pulled support from six far-left candidates, whose voters feared that a replay of the Socialists’ first-round elimination in 2002 would be devastating for the future of the left.

“I will continue to bet on the intelligence of the French and refuse to cultivate their fears,” Royal said in a speech Sunday night. “We are many, no matter whom we voted for in the first round, who do not want a France dominated by the law of the fittest or the most brutal, and locked down by the power of money and the power concentrated in a few hands that are always the same.”

Royal fended off a surprise challenge from Bayrou, a former education minister from the small Union for French Democracy party. Despite his longtime alliance with the center-right, Bayrou appealed to the moderate left and undecided voters. His criticism of big-party politics attracted an entrenched anti-establishment vote as he surged from an initial 5% in opinion polls.

“There is finally a center in France,” Bayrou declared Sunday night. “Millions of French have understood that the old war between the two parties no longer responded to the problems of France.”

The Bayrou bloc is likely to determine the winner of the runoff, and Royal and Sarkozy are expected to shift toward the center. But forming alliances will be difficult for all three politicians.

Because of Bayrou’s anti-system rhetoric, a hasty alliance with either candidate could make him look like a hypocrite. Moreover, he is an independent and does not have a political machine guaranteed to deliver his votes to the candidate of his choice.

“A lot depends on what Bayrou does,” said Thierry Vedel, an analyst at the Sciences Po university. “It’s not at all clear what will happen. And he does not control all of his voters.”

Royal appears tempted to join forces with Bayrou but would have to contend with bitter opposition from her divided Socialist Party, Vedel said. When asked Sunday night about a potential alliance, Sen. Jean-Luc Melenchon, a leader in the party’s left wing, replied: “Absolutely not. That would confuse the French people. They are clever; they are not going to be fooled. They want a clean debate now.”

Meanwhile, Sarkozy spokeswoman Rachida Dati told France 2 television that “the hand is offered” and “the door is open” to Bayrou voters. A well-sourced government official said Sarkozy was likely to make a conciliatory approach to the centrist that could win over many of Bayrou’s voters, if not Bayrou himself.

In addition to the battle for the center, the Sarkozy-Royal match will feature contrasting strategies, Vedel predicted.

“Sarkozy will want to debate specifics, ideas, projects, as much as possible,” Vedel said. “I think she will stress an anti-Sarkozy message, everyone against Sarkozy, and talk a lot about the idea of change.”

The Le Pen vote also will figure in the math of the runoff. In what probably was his last campaign, the combative 78-year-old rightist did considerably worse than in 2002 and other races. His decline resulted partly from Sarkozy’s ability to win conservative votes on issues such as immigration and partly from Bayrou’s emergence as a more palatable protest candidate, analysts said. Moreover, Le Pen apparently did not attract new voters who drove up electoral rolls by about 4 million voters since 2002. Many of the newly registered were young people and residents of immigrant-dominated neighborhoods, analysts said.

‘Sarkozy will win’

Sarkozy will get at least 80% of the Le Pen vote and a sizable chunk of the Bayrou vote, predicted the government official, who has access to internal political analysis.

The first quick polls Sunday night after the results were known predicted Sarkozy winning the runoff with 54% of the vote to 46% for Royal, he said.

“It might be closer than that, maybe 52% to 48%,” the official said. “It will be a hard battle. But I think Sarkozy will win in the end.”

rotella@latimes.com

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Special correspondent Geraldine Baum and Times staff writer Achrene Sicakyuz contributed to this report.