Obama catches Clinton in N.H.

Barack Obama has wiped out Hillary Rodham Clinton’s once-commanding lead in New Hampshire and the two remain virtually tied with John Edwards in Iowa, as more and more voters get off the fence and decide whom to support, a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found.

Obama drew backing from 32% of New Hampshire Democrats who intend to vote in the primary, compared with Clinton’s 30% -- a statistical dead heat. That’s a dramatic shift from September, when a similar poll found him trailing 35% to 16% in the state that will hold its presidential primary Jan. 8.

In Iowa, which opens the 2008 presidential voting with its Jan. 3 caucuses, the poll found Sen. Obama of Illinois, Sen. Clinton of New York and former Sen. Edwards of North Carolina in a statistical three-way tie.

But other poll findings suggest Clinton might gain stature in both states if Democrats’ concern about world affairs increases after Thursday’s assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. The poll shows that Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire consider Clinton far better equipped than her rivals to safeguard national security -- as do Democrats around the country.

Such a shift in focus away from domestic policy also could affect the Republican presidential contest and benefit Sen. John McCain of Arizona, whose campaign has rebounded in New Hampshire. He’s second behind Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts.

The poll found that Republicans in New Hampshire and Iowa consider McCain best qualified to handle foreign affairs, though his campaign has suffered from months of weak fundraising and staff turmoil.

In Iowa, the poll found that the Republican race has been scrambled by the steep rise of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the conservative Baptist minister who has opened a lead of 37% to 23% over Romney. For months, Romney had enjoyed a solid lead.

The poll underscores how, in both parties, the two earliest-voting states are ripe for surprises and upsets in the final days of the campaign.

“Things can go a little crazy up here in New Hampshire,” said Tom Mathauser, a poll respondent who supports Obama, referring to the state’s history of supporting dark-horse candidates like Paul Tsongas in 1992 and McCain in 2000. “This is the kind of thing that can blow up in someone’s face.”

The poll, under the supervision of Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus, was conducted Dec. 20 through Sunday and on Wednesday in telephone interviews with 2,145 registered voters in Iowa and 1,279 in New Hampshire. The margin of sampling error among Democrats who say they intend to vote in the Iowa caucus or New Hampshire primary was plus or minus 4 percentage points; for Republicans, it was 6 percentage points in Iowa and 5 percentage points in New Hampshire.

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N.H. race tightens

The findings illustrate how the competition among Democrats has intensified in crucial early-voting states despite Clinton’s big lead in national polls. In the last nationwide poll by the Los Angeles Times this month, Clinton was favored by 45%; Obama, 21%; and Edwards, 11%.

The fresh poll results in New Hampshire are problematic for Clinton because the state has been considered a bastion that could help her recover momentum if she were to have a weak showing in Iowa.

Obama is posing the principal threat there; the poll found Edwards a distant third, with 18%. Other candidates -- Sen. Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson -- drew only single-digit support in both New Hampshire and Iowa.

In New Hampshire, Obama shows strength among independents, who can vote in either primary. And he has made gains even among women and less-educated voters who have generally gravitated to Clinton. Backing for her dropped to 30%, from 35% in September.

But Obama also seemed to gain from the large pool of undecided voters. In September, 17% of New Hampshire Democrats were undecided; now, 11% are.

“He represents an opportunity to make a fresh start,” said Jay Fitzpatrick, 53, of East Andover, N.H., who considered supporting Clinton but recently decided to back Obama. “She is too much a part of an establishment down in Washington that has been part of the mess we are in.”

In Iowa, Clinton is backed by 29% of Democrats who say they will attend the caucuses, compared with 26% for Obama and 25% for Edwards. That’s a virtual tie because the differences are within the poll’s margin of error.

But when the survey focused more narrowly on voters who were considered very likely to participate in the caucuses, Clinton’s edge became more pronounced: 31% versus 22% for Obama. Edwards’ support remained unchanged at 25%.

That points to the importance of the rival campaigns’ efforts to get their supporters to the caucuses, where votes are cast in hours-long evening meetings that only a fraction of Iowans traditionally attend.

In both New Hampshire and Iowa, Clinton’s claim to governing experience has translated into clear advantages in voters’ assessment of her leadership. She is seen -- by wide margins over her rivals -- to be the candidate best equipped for the presidency in general and, in particular, to protect national security and fight terrorism, handle the economy and healthcare, and manage the Iraq war.

Fully 79% of Iowa Democrats say she is prepared to be president; only 43% say Obama is.

But in Obama, voters cite other advantages: In both states, more Democrats see him as the most honest, as well as the best candidate to produce new ideas, bring change to Washington and speak his mind rather than tell voters what they want to hear.

Among Republicans in Iowa, where evangelical conservatives are particularly influential, Huckabee has jumped from the back of the pack despite Romney’s heavy spending.

Huckabee, campaigning with an openly religious message, is appealing to conservatives who are not enamored of candidates such as McCain, who has diverged from the GOP party line on tax cuts, campaign finance reform and other issues.

“I am a religious man myself, so that is something that appeals to me,” said Chuck Taylor, a retired truck driver in New Sharon, Iowa. “Some of the other candidates don’t coincide with my values.”

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Huckabee gains

Among Iowa Republicans, the poll found that Huckabee dominates Romney and the rest of the field not only among born-again Christians and regular churchgoers but also among women and the disaffected. He was supported by 46% of women surveyed, and 44% of voters who say the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Huckabee argues that the Republican Party needs to acknowledge the pocketbook anxieties of middle-class voters.

The GOP contest in Iowa is essentially a two-man race: Huckabee’s 37% and Romney’s 23% outdistance McCain and former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, both with 11%; and former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and Rep. Duncan Hunter of Alpine, Calif., who all register in single digits.

The Republican pecking order is completely different in New Hampshire, where evangelical conservatives hold less sway. There, Huckabee barely registers, backed by only 9%, while Romney leads with 34%.

But McCain has made notable gains in recent months: He has campaigned heavily there and won influential newspaper endorsements in the state, which backed him against George W. Bush in 2000. McCain has jumped into second place with 21%, up from 12% in September.

He edged out Giuliani, whose support in New Hampshire dropped 9 percentage points, to 14%.

Like Clinton, McCain may benefit if voters’ concern about international affairs increases with the turmoil in Pakistan. Even in Iowa, far more Republicans say he would be the best candidate to handle foreign affairs. And when Republicans were asked if McCain was well prepared for the presidency, 78% of New Hampshire Republicans said he was.

No other candidate, in either Iowa or New Hampshire, drew such a heavy vote of confidence. But that may not be enough to sway voters who are looking for a fresh face.

“When I hear McCain, I feel comfortable that he may do a better job with the war,” said Ray Buffery, a retiree in Concord, N.H., who is nonetheless supporting Romney. McCain, he said, “has been in the Senate quite awhile. [Romney] is a younger person.”

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janet.hook@latimes.com