Argentina’s first lady looks set to win presidential race

As Argentines go to the polls today to elect a new president, the only question appears to be whether First Lady Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will win by a wide enough margin to avoid a runoff.

She would be the first woman elected president of Argentina and the second sitting female chief of state in South America, joining Chile’s Michelle Bachelet. But her gender hasn’t figured much in the uncharacteristically low-key campaign here, despite Argentina’s tradition of political machismo and electoral volatility.

“This has been without doubt the most apathetic electoral campaign of the democratic period,” political analyst Carlos Fara said, referring to the era since 1983 when years of junta rule ended. “The lack of competition has made the entire debate less interesting.”

By most accounts, Fernandez, wife of President Nestor Kirchner, is leading her nearest rivals by 20 points or more and is poised to snatch a victory in the first round, which features more than a dozen candidates. Like her husband, Fernandez, who is a senator, is a left-leaning populist.

A distant second in the polls is another woman, Elisa Carrio, a former member of congress and fierce Kirchner critic, who has picked up some support in recent polls. Carrio has tried to seize on concerns about rising inflation, corruption and what may be the beginning of an anti-Kirchner backlash, especially in Buenos Aires. Argentina’s power couple, whose political roots are in remote Patagonia, have strong support in the provinces but aren’t especially popular in the capital

Still, experts say there is only an outside chance that Carrio, left-leaning standard-bearer of the independent Civic Coalition, will garner enough votes to force a runoff election next month.

Under Argentine law, to avoid a runoff, the winner must receive either 45% of the vote or 40% with a 10% lead against the runner-up. A second round of voting would be a huge blow for the president and his designated successor.

Voters tend to see a Fernandez victory less as a groundbreaking event than guaranteeing the continuation of the policies of her husband, who has led Argentina from an economic and social abyss with four years of brisk economic growth and stability. He has done so by spurning international monetary institutions and big business, instead seeking financial aid from Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who has pumped billions of petro-dollars into the Argentine recovery.

In a move that would be unusual in any nation, Kirchner declined to seek a second term he appeared sure to win and instead deferred to his wife, a fellow lawyer.

Fernandez, 54, has reached out to the business community, a sector that sometimes feels victimized in her husband’s administration.

U.S. officials hope she will be more receptive to American overtures than is her husband, whose sometimes-shrill rhetoric and alliance with Chavez have annoyed Washington.

Unlike Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, to whom she is often compared, Fernandez didn’t have to go through a bruising primary or much of any vetting process, beyond her husband’s nod. Opponents’ bitter complaints of nepotism and the use of millions in federal funds to bankroll her campaign do not appear to have inflicted much damage on Fernandez, who has enjoyed the advantages of incumbency without being an incumbent.

“It has been an unequal campaign, a thousand against one,” Carrio said in her campaign closing last week. “The official candidate has used government funds in an obscene display.”

Fernandez, who has benefited greatly from her husband’s economic record, did not participate in any debates and blew off most interview requests.

Much of her campaign consisted of junkets to places such as New York, Madrid and Mexico City, along with rallies at home. There has been almost as much talk of her glamorous image and wardrobe as her policy proposals.

“We don’t know what plans she has,” former Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna, another presidential candidate, told reporters. “She hasn’t said anything.”

Fernandez has presented herself as a candidate of change, while at the same time vowing to continue the policies of her husband.

In a television interview last week, the mother of two dismissed rumors that she had gotten a face-lift, but didn’t rule out getting the procedure in the future. Opponents have plastered what they say are before and after photos of her around the capital in an effort to demonstrate how her public “look” has apparently improved over the years. Fernandez blames misogyny for the intense focus on her personal life and appearance.

The apparent apathy among Argentina’s 27 million voters contrasts with considerable international interest, especially with the inevitable comparisons to Clinton and Eva Peron, the iconic former first lady who is still revered here among some sections.

Critics label Fernandez “Queen Cristina” for her haughty manner and hectoring style, a contrast to Evita’s warm relationship with the Argentine masses.

“Eva was a true queen,” Carrio said, “not a Botox queen.”

Fernandez herself has tried lately to steer away from the comparisons.

“Neither Evita or Hillary,” she said of herself last week. “Cristina.”

patrick.mcdonnell@ latimes.com

--

Andres D’Alessandro of The Times’ Buenos Aires Bureau contributed to this report.