Fourth of U.S. flights miss arrival time

About a quarter of domestic flights failed to arrive on time in 2007 -- the industry’s second-poorest performance on record -- and analysts say the situation is only likely to worsen.

More than 26% of commercial flights in the U.S. arrived late or were canceled last year as rising passenger demand and an industry preference for smaller planes intensified congestion in the skies and on runways. The logjam, reported Tuesday by the Department of Transportation, comes as a growing number of veteran air traffic controllers retire. The number of delays is expected to grow as less-experienced controllers replace them, says the controllers’ union.

The only time passengers encountered more difficulties reaching their destinations on time was in 2000, when more than 27% of flights were tardy or canceled. Back then, there were 31% fewer flights than in 2007, when carriers operated nearly 7.5 million one-way trips.

Excluding cancellations, however, 2007 was the worst year on record for delays, with 24.2% arriving late, compared with 23.9% in 2000.

The worst month of the year for the nation’s 20 largest airlines was December, when more than a third of all flights were late or canceled, mostly because of the weather.

No improvement is likely, analysts said, because airlines continue to replace larger aircraft with smaller ones. The practice is meant to maximize profit margins with fewer empty seats, but it also means more flights, which leads to more congestion and delays.

The use of smaller planes also increases airlines’ exposure to rising fuel prices, because it costs them more per seat to operate, said Robert Mann, an airline consultant in Port Washington, N.Y.

The airlines and the Federal Aviation Administration are pressing for a new $15-billion satellite-based air traffic control system that will take nearly 20 years to install.