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Clear win, hazy times in Russia

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Times Staff Writer

Russians elected 42-year-old lawyer Dmitry Medvedev as their new president in a landslide victory, heralding unpredictable times for this huge, oil- and gas-rich land.

With nearly all of the ballots counted, the Central Election Commission reported that Medvedev had collected more than 70% of the votes, far outpacing his three challengers.

For eight years, Russia has grown richer and more influential under President Vladimir V. Putin’s steady, often steely hand. With Putin now planning to move into the prime minister’s post, the greatest and most unanswerable question hanging over Moscow these days is how he and his protege will share power between them. Some observers are skeptical that either will be willing to play second fiddle for long.

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Putin, prevented by the constitution from seeking a third term as president, has shown no eagerness to relinquish authority. Instead, he handpicked his successor and indicated months ago that he would become premier in Medvedev’s administration, and that the two men would work together in coming years. Putin recently referred to the prime minister’s job as the highest executive authority, although as president he ruled supreme.

The image of executive power shared amiably between two leaders has provoked heavy skepticism here. This country of ruthless politics and brutal history has traditionally been ruled by a single strongman, be it a czar, party leader or president.

“The danger lies not just in the traditional incompatibility of two powerful positions, but also in Medvedev’s psychological makeup,” said Leonid Sedov, senior researcher at Moscow’s Levada Center, an independent polling agency. “I don’t think he’s just a puppet or just a person without his own character. I think he’s a stronger man than he seems.”

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Some of Putin’s critics have predicted that he will continue calling the shots, using Med- vedev as a compliant tool. Putin may even try to transfer some authority from the presidency to the premiership, others predicted, although he has said he wouldn’t consider altering the existing power structure.

“For the time being, the key decisions will be made by both of them,” said Sergei Markov, a lawmaker with Putin’s United Russia party who’s close to the Kremlin. “We don’t know what their relations will be later, but for the time being they will be two people with one hand of power.”

Despite the pervasive sense of inevitability over Medvedev’s rise to the Kremlin, Russians braved the rain and snow to cast their ballots, answering an aggressive push from the government to get out the vote.

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Stepan Zayatz, a 64-year-old retired Moscow police officer who trudged to the polls through ankle-deep slush, said that he had come to vote for Medvedev.

“It doesn’t make sense to vote any other way,” he said. “You can only follow the ruler. The other candidates are just clowns. . . . You need to face reality.”

A few hours after the polls closed, Medvedev appeared on an outdoor stage near Red Square. Putin, who has long nurtured Medvedev’s career, stood at his side. Thousands of people, many of them members of pro-Kremlin youth groups, thronged before them, jubilant and soaked to the skin.

“We can keep moving down the path set by Mr. Putin,” Medvedev told the crowd. “Together we are moving forward. Together we will win.”

Medvedev faced three opponents: Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the Communist Party; Vladimir Zhirinovsky, an ultranationalist figure known for controversial rhetoric; and Andrei Bogdanov, a relatively unknown representative of a liberal party.

None of those candidates were given anywhere close to the coverage showered upon Medvedev by the state media. Russian and European monitors criticized the elections for biased campaign coverage.

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Medvedev is a longtime Putin acquaintance who followed the president’s path from Leningrad State University all the way to the halls of government in Moscow. He has been sold to voters as the status quo candidate, and so far he has played the part perfectly.

In appearances across the country, Medvedev lavished praise on Putin’s eight years in office and carefully avoided striking any policy notes that might clash with the president’s agenda. He smiled cheerfully at Putin’s side even as he was mocked in cartoons and street corner jokes as the puppet of a powerful master. (A sample joke: Putin and Medvedev sit in a restaurant. Putin: “I’ll have the steak.” Waiter: “And what about the vegetable?” Putin: “He’ll take the steak too.”)

But analysts warn that all bets would be off once Medvedev was installed in the Kremlin. He takes office May 7.

Many observers believe that Medvedev has simply been playing along, keeping up the respectful deference expected by his mentor and waiting for his chance to seize the reins. They warn that destabilizing clashes could break out as the two men scrap for power.

“Mr. Medvedev will certainly play his own game,” said Alexei Mukhin, head of the Center for Political Information. “He’s bound to change inside himself, just as Putin changed when he assumed power. I’m not at all convinced Putin and Medvedev will manage to preserve good relations.

“No matter how weak Medvedev looks now,” he said, “as soon as the doors shut and he’s inside, he’ll shore up. That’s the Kremlin law.”

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Putin came into office as a virtual unknown, anointed by former President Boris N. Yeltsin. Like Medvedev, Putin’s ascent to the Kremlin was attended by whispers that he would never own the job or manage to shake the long shadow of his predecessor.

Russians scoff at that memory now. Putin quickly emerged as a strongman who cannily played the Kremlin clans against one another to consolidate power. Today he is revered, epitomizing stability in the Russian imagination to the degree that many voters seem almost reflexively fearful of his departure from office.

As president, Putin oversaw Russia’s evolution from a fledgling democracy beset with corruption, chaos and crashing financial fortunes to a nation of stable leadership, increased international influence and massive energy wealth. But he also centralized power in the Kremlin, silenced independent media and weakened opposition parties.

Medvedev and Putin have their differences. Whereas Putin was a former KGB agent, Medvedev is a onetime law professor, businessman and gas executive.

Putin stared at the world through the flinty gaze of a disciplined spy, occasionally punctuated with a sardonic, closed-lip smile. He donned military uniforms and struck manly poses for photographers: shooting pistols, flying combat planes or practicing judo.

Medvedev, by contrast, was photographed this month with the members of his favorite band, Deep Purple. The presumed heir to the presidency grinned goofily among the rock stars, arms thrust forward and two thumbs cocked skyward.

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While Putin has been tagged with a reputation for belligerence toward the West, Medvedev is perceived as a slightly softer, more liberal leader.

But Medvedev, currently deputy prime minister, remains a largely untested character. Aside from representing Russia at events such as World Economic Forum meetings, he has virtually no experience with foreign affairs.

Stanislav Belkovsky, president of the National Strategy Institute, contends that Medvedev’s international reputation as a moderate was a key reason that he was tapped to take over. His main purpose, Belkovsky says, is to put a friendlier, more outwardly liberal face on the Kremlin to burnish Russia’s image among Western governments and corporations.

At home, Belkovsky predicted, the squeeze on democracy carried out under Putin will continue.

“To the West, the language will be softened. Many of the politicians in the West will actually believe he’s a liberal alternative to Putin,” Belkovsky said. “But as far as domestic policy is concerned, the crackdown on the media and on what remains of the opposition will be even harder.”

Belkovsky had invited reporters to Moscow’s House of Journalists last week to unveil his new book about Medvedev, titled “Little Evil” in a cheeky reference to the candidate’s diminutive height. The day before his book launch, Belkovsky received a call from the House of Journalists. Your event has been canceled, he said they told him. There was no explanation, he said.

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“I’m quite sure that if it were a book on Putin himself, it wouldn’t have been canceled,” he said. Calls to the House of Journalists were not answered.

Intrigue unfolds out of sight here, leaving observers to scrounge for small details about the future relationship between Putin and Medvedev. So minor are the signals from which power shifts must be inferred that lately wristwatches have been discussed.

Putin wears his watch on the right wrist; Medvedev on the left. Kremlin watchers say some of the United Russia party faithful have begun to switch their watches from right wrist to left to signal loyalty to the new chief.

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megan.stack@latimes.com

Times staff writer Sergei L. Loiko contributed to this report.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Power structure

Outgoing Russian President Vladimir V. Putin says he will serve as prime minister after he hands over the presidency to Dmitry Medvedev, the apparent winner of Sunday’s election. Following is the current division of powers between the two posts.

President

Head of state with offices in the Kremlin.

Commander in chief of armed forces, in charge of nuclear weapons.

Sets direction of foreign and domestic policies.

Guarantor of the constitution, citizens’ rights.

Defender of national sovereignty.

Appoints and dismisses prime minister and other federal ministers, subject to parliamentary approval.

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All Russian spy services report directly to the president.

Foreign, Defense, Interior, Emergency Situations and Justice ministries report directly to president.

Controls the presidential administration, based in the Kremlin.

Has a right to chair Cabinet meetings but normally leaves this to the prime minister.

Controls and appoints the Security Council, which oversees defense and security policies.

Appoints head of central bank.

Can call a state of emergency or impose military law if he believes there is a threat to national security.

Prime Minister

Heads Cabinet of ministers, with offices in Moscow’s White House.

Becomes acting president if the president “is incapacitated and cannot fulfill his responsibilities.”

Civilian ministries such as education and health report to the prime minister.

Implements domestic and foreign policy as well as presidential decrees, laws and international agreements.

Coordinates economic and fiscal policy, manages federal property.

Sets prices for gas, electricity and domestic transport.

Controls social policy, labor policy, migration and family policies.

Source: Reuters

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