IN CONTENTION / TOM O’NEIL

With so many heated races in the derby, let’s start by taking the inside track on some of the key races: picture, director, original screenplay, adapted screenplay, animated film, foreign film and costume design. We’ll break out the four acting contests next week.

BEST PICTURE

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Milk”

“The Reader”

“Slumdog Millionaire”

Spotlight: Very curious race, indeed. “Benjamin Button” has the odds in its favor. The movie with the most nominations has won 15 times during the last 20 years, but then again, three of the eight films that earned 13 noms (just as “Button” did) lost. The front-runners’ clash may be a Goliath vs. David matchup reminiscent of 1982, when nominations leader “Reds” fell to the foreign-made “Chariots of Fire,” a buoyant tale of Olympic runner underdogs that featured mostly obscure actors. Sound like “Slumdog Millionaire,” anyone? However, “Milk” and “Frost/Nixon” are also in this game, and such dramas based on real people have won before -- “The Great Ziegfeld” (1936), “A Beautiful Mind” (2001). Most pundits have made the mistake of underestimating “The Reader” throughout this award season. As every Oscarologist knows, that’s never wise when sizing up powerful films involving the Holocaust.

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DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”

Stephen Daldry, “The Reader”

David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”

Gus Van Sant, “Milk”

Spotlight: Three-quarters of the time (60 of the last 80 years), this is a bonus prize bestowed upon the helmer of the best picture winner, so Danny Boyle (“Slumdog Millionaire”) and David Fincher (“Benjamin Button”) are the front-runners. Both are perfectly cast to win, being art-house mavericks who proved they can create popular hits with artistic flair. Gus Van Sant has successfully moved back and forth between such genres for decades: he was Oscar nominated for directing “Good Will Hunting” (1997), and “Elephant” won the Palme d’Or and best director at Cannes in 2003. Watch out for Stephen Daldry, who is so beloved by the academy that he’s been nominated for each of the three feature films he’s made, including “Billy Elliot” (2000) and “The Hours” (2002).

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ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Dustin Lance Black, “Milk”

Courtney Hunt, “Frozen River”

Mike Leigh, “Happy-Go-Lucky”

Martin McDonagh, “In Bruges”

Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, “Wall-E”

Spotlight: “Milk” is a tall glass here because it’s the only best picture nominee and its theme reflects an urgent political struggle embroiling California now after Proposition 8. The other four contenders are by writer-directors. Andrew Stanton co-wrote two of the four animated features that have lost here, and the widely loved “Wall-E” would be the first such film to win. Sometimes small art-house pics prevail, and three-time past nominee Mike Leigh is overdue. Martin McDonagh’s success as a Broadway playwright gives him artsy cred, and he was a 2006 Oscar winner for the short “Six Shooter.” “Frozen River’s” Courtney Hunt is a relatively unknown rookie.

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ANIMATED FEATURE

“Bolt”

“Kung Fu Panda”

“Wall-E”

Spotlight: “Wall-E” was the best reviewed studio film of the year -- animated or live action -- and has the advantage of being produced by Pixar, which has won three of this category’s seven awards to date. However, “Happy Feet” trotted ahead of Pixar’s front-running “Cars” two years ago and now the studio should be wary of “Kung Fu Panda,” which came close to matching “Wall-E” at the box office ($223 million for “Wall-E” vs. $215 million for “Panda”). “Bolt’s” pampered dog needs to summon his superhero powers to catch up.

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FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

“The Baader-Meinhof Complex”

(Germany)

“The Class” (France)

“Departures” (Japan)

“Revanche” (Austria)

“Waltz With Bashir” (Israel)

Spotlight: “The Baader-Meinhof Complex” dramatizes the horrors of a terrorist group in post-WWII Germany, so it may resonate with voters in post-9/11 America. It lost this category at the Golden Globes to “Waltz With Bashir,” which has mega-buzz thanks to its powerfully frank portrayal of Israeli soldiers haunted by the terror they wreaked on civilians during the 1982 Lebanon war. “Bashir” is vulnerable, though. Oscar voters didn’t nominate it for animated feature. “The Class,” a true French drama of a teacher prevailing against rebellious ghetto students, won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. Austria’s “Revanche” claimed fest prizes in Berlin and Palm Springs for its tale of a Viennese ex-con and a Ukrainian prostitute who get involved in a bank heist. Japan’s “Departures” claimed laurels from fests in Montreal, Hawaii and Japan for its sensitive portrayal of a failed cellist reduced to working in a mortuary to anoint dead bodies.

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ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Eric Roth and Robin Swicord,

“The Curious Case of Benjamin

Button”

John Patrick Shanley, “Doubt”

Peter Morgan, “Frost/Nixon”

David Hare, “The Reader”

Simon Beaufoy, “Slumdog

Millionaire”

Spotlight: Frequently, this winner mirrors the best picture. But even if “Slumdog” wins the top prize, “Button” could still triumph here thanks to the literary pedigree of its source material from F. Scott Fitzgerald. After all, considering Scott’s tragic last days in Hollywood, the town owes him one. Of course, it owes Morgan too, who lost for penning “The Queen” and wasn’t even nominated for “The Last King of Scotland.” Shanley won for “Moonstruck,” but “Doubt’s” failure to get a best pic bid hurts his hopes here.

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COSTUME DESIGN

“Australia,” Catherine Martin

“The Curious Case of

Benjamin Button,” Jacqueline West

“The Duchess,” Michael O’Connor

“Milk,” Danny Glicker

“Revolutionary Road,” Albert Wolsky

Spotlight: Wolsky has won twice (“Bugsy,” “All That Jazz”), but the familiar look of clothes in period films of recent years has seldom been rewarded. “Milk” may be similarly disadvantaged, but its wardrobe is festooned with the fun (or funny, in retrospect) touches of wide lapels and bell-bottom pants. “Button” spans many decades and fashions as varied as elegant looks (like Cate Blanchett’s sexy red dress) and wrinkled duds (Brad Pitt on the barge). “Australia” has sweeping scope too, dressing up Hugh Jackman and Nicole Kidman in slick threads for a fancy gala and back down again to herd cattle in dusty terrain. But “The Duchess” is the front-runner because voters are suckers for the huge, frilly threads of characters flouncing throughout European castles -- as in recent winners “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” and “Marie Antoinette.”

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THE SHOW

The 81st Academy Awards ceremony will be held Feb. 22 at Hollywood’s Kodak Theatre with host Hugh Jackman. The event will be telecast live on ABC at 5 p.m.

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The Picks

Gold Derby blogger Tom O’Neil predicts the Oscar season for The Envelope. For ongoing discussion of that race and other campaigns for gold -- the Grammys and more -- visit TheEnvelope.com.