‘The Expendables’ likely to be No. 1 a second weekend

Hollywood is releasing a family comedy, a romantic comedy, a teen-targeted spoof, a cheesy 3-D thriller and an African American-targeted comedy this weekend. But more moviegoers may stick with the same old action heroes.

Director and star Sylvester Stallone’s “The Expendables” has the best chance to be No. 1 for the second weekend in a row, said people who have seen surveys of potential moviegoers. The aging-mercenaries tale is projected to sell $15 million to $17 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada, down a little more than half from its strong opening weekend. Through Wednesday it has grossed a total of $45.7 million.

The family movie “Nanny McPhee Returns” has a shot at topping “Expendables” but is more likely to fall just short and open to a little less than $15 million.

The remaining lineup — “Lottery Ticket,” “Vampires Suck,” “Piranha 3D” and “The Switch” — is likely to make even less of a splash, with debuts ranging from $7 million to $13 million apiece.

In other words, Hollywood’s summer blockbuster season is officially over, and studios are now releasing movies with lower commercial potential in the dog days of August.

As with the first “Nanny McPhee” in 2006, which was also written by and starred Emma Thompson, the sequel was produced with an eye toward earning most of its money overseas. Made for about $35 million by Universal Pictures and Relativity Media, “Nanny McPhee Returns” started playing in foreign countries in March. It has grossed a total of $62.6 million internationally.

The film’s domestic reception seems on track to mirror the first “Nanny McPhee,” which opened to $14.5 million and ended up with $47.1 million in the U.S. and Canada.

“Vampires Suck” is the latest parody from the makers of “Epic Movie,” “Meet the Spartans” and “Disaster Movie,” whose mocking eye has this time turned to the “Twilight” series. As a result, interest is strongest among young women.

Produced by Regency Enterprises and distributed by 20th Century Fox,” “Vampires Suck” hit theaters Wednesday and grossed $4 million.

Weekend expectations aren’t high for the low-budget comedy, however. It appears likely to do better than 2008’s “Disaster Movie,” which opened to $5.8 million, but worse than that same year’s “Meet the Spartans” and 2007’s “Epic Movie,” which debuted to $18.5 million and $18.6 million, respectively.

“Lottery Ticket,” produced by Alcon Entertainment for $17 million and released by Warner Bros., has a cast of well-known African American actors including Bow Wow, Ice Cube and Loretta Devine. The comedy about a young man who must sit on a winning lottery ticket over a long holiday weekend appears to have limited box-office potential and is likely to open to about $10 million, a decent figure given its budget.

That’s the same territory expected for “Piranha 3D,” a cheeseball thriller with a self-explanatory title that marks the first movie released nationwide by Weinstein Co. since January. The recently refinanced independent studio originally planned to release “Piranha” in April through its Dimension Films genre label but pushed back the date as it was going through a cash crunch.

Romantic comedy “The Switch,” starring Jennifer Aniston and Jason Bateman, will probably struggle to get to even the $10-million mark. Pre-release surveys signal that it will perform less like Aniston’s March romantic comedy “The Bounty Hunter,” which started with $20.7 million, and more like last September’s “Love Happens,” which opened to a weak $8 million.

“The Switch” was produced by Miramax Films but is being released by parent company Walt Disney Studios, as Miramax was shut down this year and its library and brand name are being sold to a group of investors led by Ron Tutor.

The Julia Roberts romantic drama “Eat Pray Love” is likely to land in the middle of the pack, drawing $10 million to $15 million after its $23.6-million debut last week.

Also launching this weekend at two theaters in Los Angeles and two in New York is the documentary “The Tillman Story,” about the controversial death in Afghanistan of the football-player-turned-soldier.

ben.fritz@latimes.com