New ‘Narnia’ movie looks solid for box office, ‘Tourist’ will struggle

It may be two more weeks until the actual holiday, but for the movies that open this weekend, it’s all about lasting into Christmas.

The hope for the studios releasing “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader” and “The Tourist” is to ride a solid debut to strong results around Christmas, when movie theaters tend to be packed.

But the prospects for that happening are much stronger for “Dawn Treader,” the third movie based on C.S. Lewis’ classic “Chronicles of Narnia” book series and the first co-financed and released by 20th Century Fox, which took over the franchise from Walt Disney Studios. It should see a good but not great opening weekend of about $40 million in the U.S. and Canada, according to people who have seen pre-release audience surveys.

Sony Pictures’ thriller “The Tourist,” starring Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie, is generating far less interest among potential moviegoers and should debut to a little less than $20 million, a weak start for a big-budget movie with well-known stars.

The debut for “Dawn Treader” is likely to come in below that of the first “Narnia” movie, “The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” in December 2005 and its poorly received, darker sequel “Prince Caspian” in May 2008. The movies opened at $65.6 million and $55 million, respectively.

But Fox, which co-financed the $155-million budgeted “Narnia” movie with Walden Media, has more mild initial expectations for its film given the sour taste that “Caspian” left with many fans. Fox picked up the “Narnia” series after Walden’s former partner Disney declined to continue with it following the disappointing performance of “Caspian.” Fox made “Dawn Treader” at a much lower cost than “Caspian” and attempted to return to the more family-friendly, Christian-themed roots of “The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.”

If fans like the movie, however, “Dawn Treader” could perform well through the end of the year, as it will be one of only two family films aimed at young viewers, along with “Yogi Bear.”

Both of the previous two “Narnia” movies grossed significantly more internationally than domestically and “Dawn Treader” should follow that trend. It debuts in most major foreign markets this weekend and should collect more than $60 million overseas, giving it a worldwide opening of more than $100 million.

“The Tourist” will probably need very strong overseas results to be profitable given its soft prospects domestically. Financed for about $100 million by producer Graham King, the film has so far generated only limited interest among adult women, though recent advertising spots have included more action in an effort to draw men.

Most reviews have been negative, which could harm the movie’s prospects among adults. If those who see “The Tourist” this weekend don’t like it, weak word of mouth could lead it to fade from theaters before Christmas.

Depp and Jolie are very popular internationally, however, and the film takes place in Europe, giving Sony and King hopes that foreign moviegoers will turn it into a hit. “The Tourist” opens in several overseas markets, including Britain, Taiwan and South Korea, this weekend.

ben.fritz@latimes.com