Good and bad Oscar timing

Michael Douglas made the dark, indie comedy “Solitary Man” last year before being diagnosed with throat cancer. The irony of playing a man running from a doctor’s diagnosis, fearful that his days are numbered, and with a smaller number than he had imagined, isn’t lost on Douglas or the man who wrote the movie.

“The film has a bizarre resonance, particularly that last hunk of dialogue Michael has in the movie where he says he’s not going to let some diagnosis define him,” says Brian Koppelman, who wrote “Solitary Man” and co-directed it with David Levien.

“You watch what Michael does in that scene on the park bench at the end and where he goes as an actor, and it’s almost like some part of him knew he’d be facing this someday,” Koppelman adds. “It’s an incredibly raw and open moment.”

And, with Douglas’ health in the thoughts of the filmmaking community, it’s the kind of moment that academy members should recognize — and still might, provided enough of them refresh their memories with the screeners that “Solitary Man” distributor Anchor Bay mailed last month.

But consider this: Flip the release dates of Douglas’ two movies this year — “Solitary Man” (which opened May 7) and “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps” (Sept. 24) — and you’d be looking at a likely slam-dunk lead actor nomination for the 66-year-old actor. That moment on the park bench would have been seen in theaters and would have felt all the more poignant just weeks after Douglas’ August health revelations on “Late Show With David Letterman.”

Such are the vagaries of the Academy Awards. As much as everyone involved would like it to be about the art, Oscar winners and losers (though, yes, it is a thrill just to be nominated) find their lot determined by, as Sting puts it, “effect without a cause, subatomic laws, scientific pause.”

Yes, synchronicity.

Here are some of the best and worst cases of timing in recent Oscar history:

Good timing: John Wayne, “True Grit” (1969)

“It’s ironic I got an Oscar for a role that was the easiest of my career,” Wayne said backstage after winning the lead actor award. Ironic, yes. Atypical, no. The academy often bestows its acting awards for career achievement and not a specific performance. (Make-good Oscars are also prevalent. See below.) Wayne had the good fortune of going up against both leads from the counterculture best picture winner, “Midnight Cowboy.” Dustin Hoffman and Jon Voight likely split the vote, giving the Oscar to the Duke, a member of Hollywood’s old guard.

Bad timing: James Cameron, “Avatar” (2009)

Cameron’s sci-fi epic was hailed as a technological game-changer, goosing 3-D the way “The Jazz Singer” boosted talkies. But winning an Oscar is all about creating a great award-season narrative. And “Hurt Locker” director Kathryn Bigelow — the first woman to win an Academy Award for directing — had that narrative, not to mention a great movie. That Bigelow used to be married to Cameron only sweetened her story, particularly for voters wanting to prevent any more “king of the world” sentiments from the stage.

Good timing: Marisa Tomei, “My Cousin Vinny” (1992)

Young American Tomei goes against three Brits and an Aussie for supporting actress and wins. Presenter Jack Palance initially calls Judy Davis “Joan” and then lumps her in with the Limeys (“five foreign actresses … four English and one from Brooklyn”), leading to speculation that he read the wrong winner too. That makes for a good, if highly unlikely, story, though if true … what timing!

Bad timing: Martin Scorsese up until “The Departed” (2006)

He made “Taxi Driver” when America wanted “Rocky.” He made “Raging Bull” and “GoodFellas” and watched the actors branch go crazy and vote for their own — Robert Redford, Kevin Costner (each making their directorial debuts, no less). Scorsese’s eventual triumph came for a lesser movie, but the choice was far from egregious.

Bad timing: Al Pacino, “The Godfather” (1972), “The Godfather Part II” (1974), “Dog Day Afternoon” (1975)

Good timing: Al Pacino, “Scent of a Woman” (1992)

What do you say to a make-good Oscar? Hooooooo-aaaaaaaaah!

Bad timing: William H. Macy, “Fargo” (1996)

Because even the best of performances can’t beat a good catchphrase. We hope Cuba Gooding Jr. still sends “Jerry Maguire” director Cameron Crowe a Christmas card.

Good (and bad) timing: Peter Finch, “Network” (1976)

Finch dropped dead of a heart attack in the lobby of the Beverly Hills Hotel 10 weeks before the ceremony. Cracked “Network” costar and fellow nominee William Holden some months later: “If the son of a bitch hadn’t died, I could have had my second Oscar.”

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