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The academy’s expansion to 10 best-picture nominees means that the race is more sprawling and diverse than it’s been in years -- and also a lot trickier to decipher. Here’s a rundown of where each picture currently stands and where its fortunes are headed on the way to the big show on March 7.

“Avatar”

With the film continuing to smash box-office records, its themes discussed in serious venues and its award credentials solidly established, the James Cameron extravaganza is now the picture to beat.

“The Blind Side”

Before the nominee expansion, broad, mainstream hits rarely made the top-prize shortlist. While the football film has virtually no chance of winning, the fact that it’s even on the list is no small victory.

“District 9”

It’s rare for a science-fiction film to make the best-picture grade. It’s even rarer when that film was independently made and there’s already another one on the list.

“An Education”

The period coming-of-age story was considered an acting juggernaut more than a best-picture contender, but it’s an achievement for the Lone Scherfig-directed film to land on the list, even if its odds of winning are remote.

“The Hurt Locker”

The small Iraq war movie premiered at the Toronto film festival nearly 1 1/2 years ago, and since its release last summer, the film’s stock has been rising steadily (and climbing even higher since Kathryn Bigelow won the directors guild’s top prize last weekend).

“Inglourious Basterds”

Quentin Tarantino’s biggest commercial hit is also one that steadily gained award traction over the fall before plateauing in recent weeks.

“Precious”

Lee Daniels’ hard-bitten story was once a lead contender to win the prize. It has performed well at the box office given its tough subject matter, but its prospects for taking the top statuette are dim.

“A Serious Man”

The Coen brothers’ foray into semiautobiography about their suburban Jewish upbringing was never considered a lead candidate for best picture, and while a nomination is a nice coup, it’s still not considered a serious contender to win.

“Up”

Animation movies are a tough sell in the best picture category -- none has been nominated since a separate animation category was created for the 2002 awards. The movie has an outside chance, but barely even that.

“Up in the Air”

The George Clooney vehicle was the front-runner for several months, but ever since “The Hurt Locker” and “Avatar” began to surge, it’s been getting edged slightly out of the conversation.

steve.zeitchik@latimes.com