Retirements in Congress point to tumultuous fall elections

Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, a nine-term congressman from South Florida, is a member of a political dynasty that reaches back to the Batista regime in Cuba.

To the Cuban American community in his district, “he’s the equivalent of a Kennedy,” said David Wasserman, a political analyst in Washington.

So there was some historical coincidence at work this week when Diaz-Balart, a Republican, and Rep. Patrick J. Kennedy, a Democrat from Rhode Island and the son of the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, both announced their retirement from the House.

Both would have been almost sure bets to be reelected this fall. And their exits have been seized upon by both parties as evidence that a tumultuous political season lies ahead.

Along with Diaz-Balart, veteran Reps. Vernon J. Ehlers of Michigan and Steve Buyer of Indiana also called it quits recently, bringing the number of retiring Republicans in the House to 18.

Fourteen Democrats have decided to walk away. The higher number of departing Republicans has Democratic strategists suggesting that the GOP does not expect to take control of the House this fall, as many experts predict is possible.

“The bottom line is that if House Republicans were so confident they would take back the House, we wouldn’t be seeing such a surprisingly high number of Republicans leaving,” said Ryan Rudominer, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

But Republicans argue -- and many political analysts agree -- that more Democrats have retired in competitive districts, ones which GOP candidates could end up taking in November.

“All retirements are not created equal,” said Paul Lindsay, a National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman.

For example, the seats held by retiring Democratic Reps. Bart Gordon of Tennessee, Dennis Moore of Kansas and Marion Berry of Arkansas are widely expected to swing toward the GOP in the fall.

In addition, Republicans are optimistic they can win the western Pennsylvania seat left open by the death this week of Democratic Rep. John P. Murtha.

It all could be part of a Republican wave that analysts predict could result in the party picking up 20 seats in November, perhaps more. A gain of 40 seats would hand control of the House to the GOP.

Because of that environment, said Nathan Gonzales, who watches congressional races for the Rothenberg Political Report in Washington, veteran Republicans who want to leave Congress can do so this year with the expectation that another Republican will succeed them.

That may not have been the case in 2006 and 2008, when the country’s mood tilted toward Democrats.

“In a sense, this is a great time for Republicans to retire,” Gonzales said. “It will be easier to hold onto these seats.”

One place where that is likely to occur is in South Florida, where Diaz-Balart is expected to be replaced by his brother, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.). Mario Diaz-Balart has indicated he will run in the fall in his brother’s district, a safer Republican seat than his own.

But Democrats see an opportunity in the district he is leaving. It favored Republican John McCain over Democrat Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election by a single percentage point.

Similarly, Republicans believe they have a shot at the Rhode Island district being vacated by Kennedy, who said Thursday that he was heading “in a new direction.”

Kennedy’s departure will mark the end of an era spanning more than 60 years in which members of the storied clan held federal office. In other years, his seat would seem likely to remain in Democratic hands, but GOP Sen. Scott Brown’s upstart win in Massachusetts last month has emboldened Republicans.

In fact, Republican John Loughlin, a Rhode Island state representative who is running for the now-open seat, has retained the same strategic firm that masterminded Brown’s win.

joliphant@latimes.com