A lot fewer swingers this election

About 1 in 5 people is a potential swing voter, the smallest number in recent midterm elections, the Gallup poll reported Thursday, in the latest sign that this year’s electorate is firmly set in its political ways as the campaigns move into the final weekend.

According to the poll, about 19% fall into the swing-voter category this year compared with 27% in 2006 and 37% in 2002. A potential swing voter is defined as someone who has no preference or is willing to change.

Further, the poll found that likely Republican voters were slightly more committed to their choice than were Democratic voters, 86% to 82%, an edge that could drive GOP voters to the polls.

Democrats and Republicans have sparred for weeks about the so-called enthusiasm gap, the difference between “tea party” movement excitement on behalf of Republicans and key Democratic groups including women and younger constituents, who have told pollsters that they are shying away from voting.

Even with the sharp growth in early voting, the swing voter is one key target as the midterm-election cycle winds down to election day on Nov. 2.

Independents are 32% and moderates are 29% of the swing-voter group, according to the poll. Young voters are less likely than the elderly to be committed to any candidate. About 32% of those ages 18 to 29 are swing voters while 19% of those 65 and older are swing voters.

The results are based on 1,989 telephone interviews conducted Oct. 14-17 and Oct. 21-24 and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

michael.muskal@latimes.com
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