Oscars 2014: Which acting favorites have reason to worry?

After making their cases for best picture, our Buzzmeter panelists -- Entertainment Weekly’s Anthony Breznican, Fandango’s Dave Karger, Thompson on Hollywood’s Anne Thompson, the Los Angeles Times’ Betsy Sharkey and Glenn Whipp, and the Gold Derby’s Tom O’Neil -- return to ponder possible upsets in the acting races, whether composer Bruce Broughton deserved to have his nomination yanked and offer their choices for a perfect Oscar-night win.

Cate Blanchett, Matthew McConaughey, Lupita Nyong’o and Jared Leto are the front-runners in the acting categories. Which one is most vulnerable?

Thompson: The best actor race is so close that Chiwetel Ejiofor, Leonardo DiCaprio or Bruce Dern could edge out McConaughey. It’s a numbers game. Who expected Tom Hanks to lose a nomination for the best performance of his career in “Captain Phillips”?

Karger: Definitely Lupita. That BAFTA win for Jennifer Lawrence threw everything off-kilter.

FULL COVERAGE: Oscars 2014

O’Neil: McConaughey and Nyong’o are both vulnerable. Leo may emerge as the “Wolf” of Oscar night and Lawrence could pounce to grab a new Oscar one year after snagging her first. Yes, we have frontrunners in these races, but the Oscars never go according to script.

Sharkey: A few weeks ago I would have said all the acting categories were a lock. But in the wake of the Woody Allen/Dylan Farrow firestorm, Blanchett might be at risk. The decision should rest on her performance alone, which is without question the best in that category. But Oscar has a bad habit of making things personal, and not in a good way.

Whipp: That should be the winning quartet, but Nyong’o has the most reason to be nervous. Jennifer Lawrence received a huge ovation when her name appeared during the closing credits at the Academy screening of “Hustle.” People adore her. With four acting nominations, “Hustle” owns a lot of love among voters in that huge bloc and it wouldn’t be shocking if one of the cast members wins. Lawrence has the best chance.

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Did composer Bruce Broughton, disqualified for original song, deserve to have his nomination taken away?

Sharkey: I was shocked when the academy took Broughton’s original song nomination away. Given that the entire awards season now plays out like an extreme cage fighting match, what Broughton did seems like a minor infraction at best. And is he really the only one to cross lines during this entire race?

O’Neil: The Oscars didn’t disqualify “The Hurt Locker” or its producer Nicolas Chartier when he committed the same offense as Broughton. Chartier had his ceremony tickets pulled, that’s all. The academy should’ve doled out the same penalty to Broughton.

Whipp: Disqualifying Broughton was harsh, but he clearly violated the rules. Would the song have been nominated had he not sent the emails? Probably not.

Thompson: Yes. He should not have used his privileged position as a former academy governor and music branch executive committee member to email his fellow voters to please pay attention to his song, which otherwise would have remained on a long list of also-rans.

Oscars 2014: Complete list of nominees | Play-at-home ballot

What Oscar-night win would bring the biggest smile to your face?

Breznican: June Squibb for “Nebraska.” I love that woman, and she’s an 80-something dynamo. A true testament to what a lifetime of steady good work can build toward — an Oscar nomination. How nice if it were a win. But, even without the trophy, she has won my heart. Aww…

Thompson: Chiwetel Ejiofor for best actor. That long closeup at the end of “12 Years a Slave” should get him that Oscar. Yet he’s up against the strongest set of performances in years -- all are deserving. If Matthew McConaughey wins, it will be because he turned his career around and showed us what he could do -- in a string of indie films as well as the currently running “True Detective.” It’s the gorgeous-movie-star-turned-serious-thespian-award that went to Halle Berry and Charlize Theron.

Karger: This is obscure, but I’m really pulling for “The Lady in Number 6” for best documentary short. And now that the film’s inspirational subject, Alice Herz-Sommer, has passed away, a win would be a lovely tribute.

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O’Neil: I will smile and cheer if “Philomena” -- my dearly beloved film of the year -- wins something. Frankly, it deserves to win best picture, but I’ll settle for screenplay or (dare I suggest it?) lead actress.

Sharkey: A “Gravity” best picture win would bring a smile. For all the well-executed significance of “12 Years a Slave,” for all the fun of “American Hustle’s” con, watching all the contenders again in recent days, I came away loving “Gravity” the most.

Whipp: The academy rarely honors world-class directors, and when it does, it’s often for films that aren’t their best work. So I will relish watching Alfonso Cuaron winning for “Gravity.”

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