Poll Analysis: Bush Strengthens His Lead Over Gore

     A little less than five months before Americans go to the polls to select their next president, a job Al Gore first put his name in contention for 12 years ago, the vice president continues to face some obstacles to claiming this long-sought victory, with Texas Governor George Bush currently leading the race by 10 percentage points.
     Gore's main challenge is not so much closing the gap enjoyed by George W. Bush among all voters, but in reclaiming core Democratic constituencies such as women and Latinos whom he is currently failing to attract.

The Horserace     In the latest national poll conducted by the Los Angeles Times June 8-13, Bush leads Gore by 10 points, garnering a bare majority of voters:
      50% of registered voters said they are planning to vote for Bush come November.
     40% are planning to vote for Gore.
     Ten percent of registered voters were undecided at the time the poll was conducted.
     In a blow to Gore, nearly a fifth of self-identified Democratic voters say they will vote for Bush in November. In contrast, just 6% of Republicans plan on voting for Gore. In a similar trend, Gore secures 72% of the Democratic vote, while 92% of Republicans are currently supporting Bush.
     Bush even manages to attain one in 10 liberal Democrats. Gore, on the other hand, is currently receiving just 3% of the conservative Republican vote.
     The coveted independent vote, many of whom were voting for John McCain when he was a candidate in the Republican primaries, have now swung to Bush's court, with 53% of self-identified independents backing Bush, and 32% backing Gore. Eleven percent of independents were undecided at the time of the poll.
     However, in some better news for Gore, he does receive 49% of the moderate vote, compared to 40% of moderate voters who are backing Bush.
     Yet a trend illustrated in the results of the poll is that Gore is failing to shore up key Democratic constituencies. While 73% of African Americans are planning to vote for Gore, one in 10 support Bush (16% are undecided). More strikingly, the Latino vote is currently split between the two candidates. Bush leads among white voters by 20 points (55% to Gore's 35%).
     In July of 1988, at a similar time in the election cycle and in a race to which this year's election has been compared-particularly by the Gore camp-56% of Latinos planned to vote for Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis, and just 25% planned to vote for George Bush Sr.
     Similarly, while Democratic candidates usually receive both the most educated and least affluent voters, Gore maintains a statistically insignificant lead over Bush among those with college or more (45% to Bush's 44%) and also among those with household incomes of $40,000 a year or less (both candidates receive 44% of that group).

Running Mate     Speculation as to whether Bush will select a pro-choice candidate as his vice presidential running mate has received much hype in the media. Yet voters show little concern over this issue, with more than seven out of ten (72%) saying that if Bush chose a running mate who supported a woman's right to chose, it would make no difference in their vote.Just 8% said such a selection would make them more likely to vote for Bush, and 13% said this decision would make them less likely to vote for him.
     Younger voters and self-identified moderates and independents are most likely to affirm a pro-choice running mate selection, while conservatives and the most religious voters (such as those who are highly observant or those who consider themselves fundamentalists) are most likely to turn away from Bush should he select a pro-choice running mate.

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED     The Times Poll contacted 1,686 registered voters nationwide, by telephone June 8-13. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.