Poll Analysis: Pete Wilson’s Job Rating Up Slightly, Prospects for Presidency Still Dim

Californians have an overwhelmingly positive perception of the state's direction and economic performance. Incumbent office holders' ratings and political futures are often bolstered by such a positive electoral mood. This trend proves true for Governor Pete Wilson, who is receiving a slight bump in his job rating, according to a recent Los Angeles Times poll. However, voters continue to have only a lukewarm view of his job performance overall and most believe he should not seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2000.
     Sixty-one percent of Californians believe things in the state are moving in the right direction and 67% describe the California economy as robust. These perceptions are far-reaching, with majorities of virtually every subgroup having a positive view of the state's direction and the economy specifically. Furthermore, according to previous Los Angeles Times polls, the mood in these respects is more positive than it has been in over five years.
     In light of these positive perceptions of the state, Wilson's job rating has increased slightly. Fifty-three percent of Californians approve of the way Pete Wilson has handled his job as governor, with 37% disapproving (among registered voters, 55% approve and 37% disapprove). In a Los Angeles Times poll taken in April 1998, 47% of Californians gave Wilson a positive job rating and 43% gave him a negative review. Therefore, while voters were nearly divided five months ago, today there is a 16 point gap between those who approve of Wilson and those who disapprove. Furthermore, while Wilson's rating is modest at best, this poll marks the strongest rating he has received since the question was first asked in May 1991.
     Californians may have an improved opinion of Wilson's job performance, but voters' views on whether he should seek the presidency remain unchanged. Just 23% of voters believe that Wilson should seek the Republican nomination for President in 2000. Sixty-three percent believe he should not. These numbers are similar to those from surveys taken in October 1997, September 1995 and March 1995.Unsurprisingly, Wilson's job rating is stronger among Republicans and conservatives than other subgroups. Nearly three-fourths (74%) of Republicans approve of the job Wilson is doing, while only 43% of Democrats and 47% of independents do so. Two-thirds of conservatives give Wilson a positive rating, compared to 36% of liberals and 54% of moderates.
     Wilson's weakest ratings come from respondents in the traditionally more liberal region of the Bay Area, and traditionally more Democratic voter subgroups of African Americans, Latinos, lower income residents, and younger Californians. He is stronger with voters in the Central Valley, Southern California outside of Los Angeles County, Northern California outside of the Bay Area, older Californians, and more affluent Californians. There was little variation in response to this question among men and women.
     While registered Republicans give Wilson a far stronger job rating, a majority do not believe he should seek the Republican Presidential nomination. Just 28% said he should seek the nation's highest office, while 57% said he should not. Republican men were slightly more supportive, with 36% believing he should run for President and 53% believing he should not. Conservatives were no more supportive than Republicans overall, 30% to 59%. In fact, strong majorities (nearly two-thirds or more) of nearly all subgroups believe Wilson should not go after the presidency.

Other Issues
     President Clinton continues to receive a strong job approval rating in California despite this poll being taken in the days following the release of the Starr report, with 65% of Californians giving him a positive job rating and 32% reviewing him negatively. Among registered voters, his rating is slightly lower, 63% to 34%. Clinton's job rating has slipped from a survey taken in April 1998 where 72% of Californians approved of the way he was handling his job as president and 25% disapproved. Unsurprisingly, Clinton's job rating is stronger among Democrats (86%) and independents (72%) than Republicans (31%). In fact, two-thirds of Republicans disapprove of Clinton's job performance (an 18 point increase in his negative rating from April 1998). His support among liberals (86%) and moderates (71%) remain high, but only 44% of conservatives approve of Clinton's job performance (54% disapprove). There was little variation in his ratings by gender.

How the Poll Was Conducted
     The Times Poll contacted 1,651 Californians, including 1,270 registered voters, by telephone September 12-17. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and for registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Asian Americans were interviewed and are included in the sample, but this group is not large enough to break out separately.