Poll Analysis: Bush or Dole Would Win in Early 2000 Presidential Matchups.

     With the first primaryballoting for the 2000 presidential election just over one yearaway, the latest Los Angeles Times national poll found TexasGovernor George W. Bush and Elizabeth Hanford Dole are thefront-runners among a possible 10-member field of Republicancandidates. The survey found either Republican, neither of whomhave yet declared their candidacy, would prevail in a race againstVice President Al Gore if the election for president were beingheld today.
     When asked how important a rolethe impeachment and trial of President Clinton in Congress shouldplay in the 2000 presidential election, only 5% of voters said itshould be the most important issue. An additional 29%, said itshould be an issue, but not the most important one, while nearlytwo-thirds (64%) said it should not be an issue at all. Amongthose who think it should be an issue, (and Republicans are split50% each on this) large majorities favor the Republican candidatein hypothetical presidential election match-ups.

     2000 Party Primaries
     When Republican voters were asked about who they would nominate iftheir state party primary or caucus were held today, TexasGovernor George W. Bush -- son of former President George HerbertWalker Bush -- would be leading a field of ten hopefuls with 39% ofthe Republican vote. Bush makes a generally favorable impressionon voters -- 60% overall think favorably of him. Republicans andindependents view him very highly (79% and 65% respectively) andeven 40% of Democrats have a good opinion of him. He has work todo on his visibility, nearly a third of all voters -- including aplurality (44%) of Democrats -- don't yet have enough informationabout him to make up their minds.
     Elizabeth Dole, former head ofthe American Red Cross and wife of 1996 Republican presidentialchallenger Bob Dole, is trailing Bush in a primary match-up atthis time, garnering only a quarter of the primary vote amongRepublicans. Over half of all voters, including 75% ofRepublicans, 56% of independents and 40% of Democrats, have afavorable impression of Dole, but over a third (35%) cannotventure an opinion of her at this time.
     Gender plays a role in the earlyRepublican primary match-up, although not in the way you mightexpect. Forty-three percent of Republican men support GovernorBush vs. 34% of Republican women. Republican women are not exactlylining up to support Elizabeth Dole in the primary -- she garnersonly slightly more votes among Republican women (28%) than amongmen (23%). Former vice president Dan Quayle, (third in the fieldof possible Republican primary candidates with 17% of the overallRepublican vote) attracts the vote of nearly a quarter of allRepublican women, while only 10% of their male counterparts feltthe same.
     Other possible candidates testedin the poll's 2000 Republican primary were former Tennesseegovernor Lamar Alexander (1%), social conservative activist GaryBauer (1%), businessman Steve Forbes (4%), Representative John R.Kasich (1%), Senators John McCain (4%) and Bob Smith (less than 1%of the vote) and former California governor, Pete Wilson (2%).
     When Democratic voters wereasked about who they would nominate if their state party primaryor caucus were held today, Vice President Al Gore easily tops thelist with over half of the vote -- 52%. The closest contender at thisearly date is two-time presidential candidate Reverend JesseJackson, who garners 17% of the vote. House Minority LeaderRichard Gephardt trails a distant third at 11%. Senators BillBradley and John Kerrey are not even in the running yet with 7%and 4% respectively. Nine percent of Democratic voters remainundecided.

     2000 Presidential HorseRaces
     When matched against Gore in ahypothetical general presidential election, voters favor Bush by18 percentage points -- 57% to 39%. Among Republicans, notsurprisingly, the vote widens in Bush's favor 88% to 10% whileDemocrats line up behind Gore slightly less enthusiastically -- 71%to 23%. Independent voters are swinging toward agreement with theGOP, 68% say they would favor Bush at this time, while 27% nameGore.
     Despite trailing amongRepublicans for the nomination, Elizabeth Dole enjoys an earlylead over Gore in a hypothetical general election match-up by amargin of eight percentage points -- 50% to 42%.
     Looking more closely at thehypothetical presidential horse races between Gore and the twofront-running Republicans shows that moderates are almost evenlysplit between the Democratic and Republican candidates. BothRepublican candidates are picked by Democratic voters over theirown party's candidate in greater numbers than the other wayaround. Twenty-three percent of Democratic voters would vote forBush if the election were held today, while 20% would vote forDole. On the other hand, 10% of Republicans selected Gore in amatch-up with Bush, and only 6% selected Gore against Dole.
     The hypothetical race of Goreagainst Bush finds moderate voters nearly evenly splitting theirvotes between the candidates, 45% to 47%. Moderates are also splitin the Gore / Dole race, although they tend slightly toward Gore,with 48% favoring the Democrat vice president while 44% namedpossible Republican candidate Dole.
     Independent voters are tendingto side with the GOP at this time, favoring Bush over Gore by 68%to 27% and Dole over Gore by 53% to 36%.
     Among the youngest group ofvoters (18-29 years) Gore fares better against bothRepublicans -- 53% to 45% against Bush and 54% to 40% against Dole.Unfortunately, this group is not known for turning out to vote. Aclear majority of older, more dependable voters (45 years andolder) would vote for Bush over Gore 62% to 32% and Dole over Gore49% to 40%.
     At this early stage, Goregarners majority votes only among his core Democratic constituencyand among liberals, young people, and single women.

     Impact of Impeachment and theTrial of President Clinton on the 2000 Election
     Voters in the survey were askedhow their congressional representative's stand on the impeachmentand Senate trial of the president would affect their congressionalvote in 2000.
     Over half (52%) indicated thattheir U.S. senator's vote to remove President Clinton from officewould not affect how they would vote in a possible year 2000Congressional reelection. Seventeen percent said they would bemore likely to vote to reelect that senator, while 26% said theywould be less likely.
     Nearly the same number (54%) ofvoters said that a vote by their U.S. senator not to removePresident Clinton from office would have no impact on who theysupport.
     Twenty-two percent ofvoters indicate they would be more likely to vote to reelect theirsenator in this case while 20% said they would be less likely.
     The U.S. House ofRepresentatives has already voted to approve two articles ofimpeachment against President Clinton, and in what might be goodnews for Republicans who might be fearing a backlash over theirvotes, over half (56%) of voters did not know whether their Houserepresentatives voted for or against impeachment.
     If a member of the House ofRepresentatives voted for the articles of impeachment, just underhalf (49%) of those polled say it would not affect their vote in2000. Thirty-one percent, however, indicate they would be lesslikely to vote to reelect a member who voted this way and another16% said they would be more likely to vote for such a member.
     If a voter's House member hadvoted against the articles of impeachment, over half (55%) ofthose polled say it would not affect their vote in 2000. Nineteenpercent, however, indicate they would be less likely to vote toreelect a member who voted this way and another 20% said theywould be more likely to vote for that member.

     How the Poll WasConducted
     The Times Poll contacted 960adults nationwide, including 817 registered voters, by telephoneJanuary 27-29; among registered voters, 203 were self-describedRepublicans and 298 self-described Democrats. Telephone numberswere chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation.Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed andnon-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample wasweighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race,age, education, and region. The margin of sampling error forregistered voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; forRepublicans and for Democrats it is six points. For certainsubgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll resultscan also be affected by other factors such as question wording andthe order in which questions are presented.