Poll Analysis: State Issues and Politics

     Californians are feeling pretty good these days about the state, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll. They believe the state's economy is robust, their personal finances are secure, they feel safe in their neighborhoods and they have an overall sanguine feeling that California is on the right track. This good feeling carries over to their general satisfaction with top elected officials, including the state legislature, which has been given more negative ratings than positive ratings over the years.
     The poll also shows Senator Dianne Feinstein in good stead with California voters. This may well be because of her championing strong gun control in Washington DC--Feinstein is backed by nearly three out of five voters saying they are likely to vote for her in her bid to be reelected to the U.S. Senate.
     Results of the poll also show that voters are still very much in favor of term limits, an initiative that was approved by voters in 1990 and Proposition 187, the anti-immigrant initiative that was also approved by voters in 1994. The data suggest that voters have not wavered in their opinions about these issues--voters are just as adamant today as they were then. One of the components of Prop 187 is prohibiting illegal immigrant children from attending the state's public schools, but this was opposed by a majority of Californians. However, registered voters were divided over this. The reason voters overwhelmingly approve of term limits is because they believe it will eliminate career politicians that were beholden to special interests. That, to them, is a more important issue than the argument that term limits will give the state inexperienced politicians that cannot accomplish much.

     The Economy
     There are indications that most residents are confident in their belief that California is on sure footing economically. More than half of all Californians think things in California are generally going in the right direction, about a third say the state is off on the wrong track. To illustrate Californians belief that the state is doing well, right direction is up six points since May when the question was last asked. And most residents also believe that the state's economy is robust (72%), while 25% say it is shaky. This is up slightly from the last time the question was asked in September 1998 when 67% said the economy was robust and 30% shaky. However, those in the lower socioeconomic group (households with income less than $20K) are not sharing in the ebullience with the rest of the respondents surveyed. They are the only income group that thinks California is off on the wrong track (51%) and that the state's economy is shaky (43% to 53% robust). Along with good feelings for the state, 73% of all those surveyed say their own personal finances are secure. Again the poorer residents of the state say their finances are shaky (61%). Nearly half (48%) of respondents say that there personal finances are better than they were five years ago and 32% say it is the same. About a fifth say their finances are worse than they were five years ago, including 38% of those who are in the lowest income group.
     The Haves and the Have-nots: There is a feeling in the state that the middle class is vanishing and there will be groups of haves and have-nots. The poll findings bolster this argument. Three out of five Californians believe that money and wealth in California should be more evenly distributed among a larger percentage of people, while 27% disagree. A bare majority of whites (52%) agree with this idea, while 73% of Latinos and large numbers of blacks also feel that the money is not being distributed fairly. Even 37% of Republicans believe that wealth in the state should be more equitable. About three out of four respondents with household income less than $20,000 believe the notion that the state is becoming more of haves and have-nots, compared to 47% of respondents whose household income is $60,000 or more. But it is interesting that the more affluent also believe this to be true.
     Forty-five percent of Californians consider themselves in the middle class, while 18% believe they are in the upper middle to upper classes, while 35% believe they are in the working or lower classes. Only 2% say they are in the upper class and 5% say they are in the lower class. (To put this finding into context, according to a 1997 study by the Public Policy Institute of California, the top ten percent of households in California earn $130,000 or more and the bottom 10% of households earn $13,000 or less.) Fifty-nine percent of Latinos say they are in the working or lower classes and a third believe they are in the middle class. Less than one in 10 put themselves in the upper classes. White residents, however, consider themselves somewhat more affluent: 21% believe they are in the upper classes, 51% middle class and 26% in the lower classes.
     But those who are in the working and lower classes have not despaired yet--with nearly three out of five saying their prospects are good in moving up the economic ladder. The U.S. has always been thought of as the land of opportunity. And Californians are no exception about thinking this way, too. More than seven out of 10 adults surveyed say that anyone who works hard enough can make it economically in this country, including 58% who "strongly" agree with this sentiment. Only one in five don't believe this. All demographic groups believe in the idea of anybody can do well if they put their minds to it.

     Job Approval Ratings of the Governor and Legislature
     Governor: Governor Gray Davis receives a 53%-16% positive job approval rating among all Californians and 54%-17% among registered voters. Even half (49%) of Republicans and conservatives (46%) give him a positive rating. All demographic groups give him a positive job approval rating Legislature: The state legislature has a positive job approval rating. This is the highest rating the Legislature has gotten since the Times Poll first started asking the question in 1983. Its approval rating was lowest in 1992 (13%), when the state's budget was held up because of disputes between legislators and former Governor Pete Wilson. This poll shows 46% of all Californians approving of the way the Legislature handles its job, 29% disapproving; among voters it is 47%-31%. Democrats (54%-25%) and Republicans (45%-36%) give positive marks to this governing body. Most surprising is the fact that Republicans give the Legislature a positive job rating considering the Democratic party is in control.

     Dianne Feinstein and Reelection
     Favorability rating and job approval rating: Senator Dianne Feinstein's job approval rating is as good as her best rating in 1997 (54%). Among all Californians, 52% approve of the way she is handling her job, 26% disapprove. (Among registered voters, it is 54%-30%.) She has higher marks among women than men (54%-22% for women and 49% to 30% for men). Large majorities of Democrats and liberals approve of the way she handles her senatorial duties. And the potent swing voters that she will have to curry favor with in order to win her reelection next year give her a positive job rating. Among independents 44% approve, 28% disapprove while 55% of moderates approve of her job, and 21% disapprove. All income and racial and ethnic groups like her as well.
     Her favorability rating is very similar to her job approval--51% of registered voters have a favorable impression of the senator, while 33% have an unfavorable image of her. This time, though, men and women have the same positive feelings about her (52%-30% women, 50%-37% men).
     Reelection: Feinstein has been on the side of stricter gun control (banning assault weapons) for most of her first term and since this issue has become so important recently in the current wake of school shootings, it has only helped the senator in her bid for reelection next year. About half (49%) of voters say the fact that Feinstein has been a strong advocate for gun control measures and banning assault weapons would make them more likely to vote for her next year. A third say it would make no difference knowing this fact and 17% say it would make them less likely. (About the same number of parents--46%--say they would be more likely to vote for her because of her support of banning weapons). Not surprising, Democrats, liberals and women all would be more likely to vote for her. Again, the swing voters that could decide who the next senator would be, say they would be more likely to vote for her as well (45% independents and 54% moderates). She was even able to get 30% of Republicans to say that they would be more likely to vote for her because of her gun control support, while 28% say they would be less likely.
     With this issue clearly on her side, 56% of voters say it is very or somewhat likely that they would vote for Feinstein for US senator in 2000. Slightly more than a third (36%) say it would be unlikely for them to vote for her next year. Again, her core constituency will vote for her in large numbers, but 49% of independents and 66% of moderates say they will, too. This poll shows that there is no gender gap--(54%-39% for men who say likely, 58%-33% for women who say likely). Thirty-five percent of Republicans also say it is likely they would vote for the senator. Of course, it is still early in the game and no GOP challenger has yet emerged.
     The issue of voting against impeachment does not seem to have hurt Feinstein. Sixteen percent of voters say it would make them more likely to vote for her because she voted not to impeach the president, while virtually the same 19% say it would make them less likely. Almost two-thirds of the voters say it would make no difference in their vote one way or the other. (Among moderates and independents it is also virtually a wash.)

     State Issues
     More Californians are willing to pay higher state taxes to build new schools. This is in keeping with their concern for a better education and the seriousness of the problem. But they are not willing to consider raising taxes to build prisons or highways. They might be willing to do so for more public parks, but that is also about children--a better quality of life. Yet, 46% say they are willing to have their taxes raised for public parks, while a similar 49% are not.
     Term limits was approved by the voters in 1990 and is still thought of as a good thing for California. Most residents would vote for it again. Seventy percent of Californians and 73% of voters favor term limits, while roughly one-fifth of each group oppose it. This feeling crosses political party lines and ideology. Nearly seven out of 10 say it is a good thing for California because it drums out career politicians tied to special interests, while only 16% say it is a bad thing for California because it brought in inexperienced politicians that cannot accomplish anything.
     Another measure that voters resoundingly approved in 1994, Proposition 187, would still be approved by voters (60%) and all Californians (53%). This measure made illegal immigrants ineligible for public social services, ineligible for public health care services, except for some emergency health care, and denied children who are illegal access to public school. This was a decisive issue in 1994 and is still a sore spot in California politics. Governor Davis recently asked an appeals court to consider the measure's constitutionality. Immigration is not considered the most important problem facing the state as it was in 1994. Education has risen to the top at 34% for all Californians and 38% for registered voters. As Cathy Decker noted in her L.A. Times story today, "Fully 45% of Californians want to prohibit illegal immigrants from attending public schools--a commentary on the strains Californians perceive on the schools, but a verdict inextricably intertwined with the emotion of race relations as well." Yet, 51% do not want to prohibit these children from attending school.
     Also more respondents who were surveyed, say that the increasing diversity that immigrants bring to this country mostly improves American culture (48%), while 29% say it mostly threatens American culture.

     How the Poll Was Conducted
     The Times Poll contacted 1,602 adults statewide, including 1,179 registered voters, by telephone June 10 through June 14. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and voter registration. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. The survey was conducted in English and Spanish.