Perry vs. Romney is main event at Reagan debate

In the two debates preceding Wednesday night’s dust-up in Simi Valley, Mitt Romney had the luxury of being the man above the fray. While rivals such as Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty tore at each other, Romney stayed cool, removed. He didn’t break a sweat.

That could change in a big way at the Reagan Library.

Romney is no longer the favorite—and can no longer approach his candidacy like a long-distance runner. Rick Perry’s surge has forced the former Massachusetts governor to recalibrate his approach in multiple ways. Recently, he’s begun to court “tea-party” affiliated voters after seemingly ignoring them. And he’s been more aggressive, coming out this week with a detailed job-creation plan to counter the president’s proposals.

The question for Wednesday’s debate is whether Romney will turn and attack Perry in a bid to slow his momentum. And whether Perry, in turn, will try to bring down the man who, right now, looms as the biggest obstacle toward his securing the nomination.

Other GOP candidates will be on the stage, of course: Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum. But the frisson at the debate, if there is to be any, probably will come from the two leads, with Bachmann, perhaps, making an attempt to elbow her way back into the top tier.

The 105-minute debate, sponsored by NBC News and Politico, will be moderated by NBC’s Brian Williams and Politico’s John F. Harris. It will be carried live on MSNBC.

For Perry, the event allows him to introduce himself to an electorate that may know the big-talking Texas governor more through his reputation. The pressure on him may simply be to live up to expectations. An attendee at an evangelical retreat with Perry in Texas last month gushed that Perry sounded like “a combination of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.”

Heady stuff for a man who entered the race just over three weeks ago.

The two top contenders already have swiped repeatedly at each other. Perry has hit Romney on his jobs record in Massachusetts, as well as on the healthcare plan enacted while he was governor. On Labor Day in South Carolina, Perry, referring to Romney’s time in private business, said that Romney “created jobs all around the world. While he was the governor of Massachusetts, he didn’t create many jobs.”

On Tuesday, Perry’s camp sent out remarks by former California gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman, a Romney backer, praising Texas’ business environment.

Romney has pointed to his work in the private sector, calling it the “real economy.” In a speech last week, he took shot at Perry, who has held elected office in Texas since 1984.

“Career politicians got us into this mess, and they simply don’t know how to get us out,” Romney said.

Expect plenty of talk about the struggling economy and the policies of the Obama administration. At last month’s debate in Ames, Iowa, Romney’s campaign advisors lamented that the former venture capitalist had not been able to show off his economic expertise. The Reagan debate could afford him that opportunity. Meanwhile, Perry probably will point to his jobs record in Texas again and again.

His rivals may seek to hammer Perry on immigration, an area where he differs with many conservatives. Texas has been more accepting of undocumented workers and their children than other states in the South and Southwest.

But will there be such fireworks? Already this campaign season has added a new term to the political lexicon: a “Pawlenty moment”—named after the former presidential candidate’s failure to bash Romney on the healthcare issue when pressed at the first debate in New Hampshire.

Will Romney see his own Pawlenty moment Wednesday evening? Will Bachmann, as she continues to leak support to Perry?

And there are other questions, too, to be resolved: Will Paul, who consistently out-polls many of the candidates in the field, be treated like a serious contender, or a fringe element? Will Huntsman, battling a sinus infection that has made him hoarse, literally find his voice and carve out some sort of path forward? Will Cain, Gingrich, and Santorum find ways to stay on the radar?

If all those questions aren’t answered Wednesday night, don’t worry. Another debate is scheduled for Monday evening in Tampa. And yet another the following week in Orlando.