Analysis warns of peril to Republicans among Latino voters
Proposition 187 was a classic Pyrrhic victory for Republicans.
The 1994 anti-illegal immigration initiative helped boost California Gov. Pete Wilson to a resounding reelection win against Democratic state Treasurer Kathleen Brown, Gov. Jerry Brown’s younger sister. But nearly 20 years after Wilson’s victory and passage of the controversial ballot measure, which was largely voided in the courts, his fellow Republicans continue to pay a price, in California and elsewhere across the country.
The initiative, which sought to crack down on those in the state illegally by denying access to public services such as education and healthcare, energized Latino voters just as their share of the electorate began soaring.
Subsequent state ballot measures targeting affirmative action and bilingual education compounded the negative perception of the GOP and Republican candidates who endorsed the initiatives.
As a result, many Latinos turned against the party to its great detriment - not only in California but in Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and other states that have shaded red to blue as their Latino voting population grows.
A new report by Latino Decisions, a firm that specializes in analyzing the Latino vote, takes apart some of the numbers in California and nationally and suggests the danger the Republican Party faces if the current trends hold.
“Everybody’s been talking after the 2012 election about demographic changes, demographic changes. Those were happening in California 20 years ago,” Matt Barreto, a University of Washington political scientist and collaborator on the study, said in an interview. “So we’ve seen this movie before.”
The report suggests that California would have remained a competitive two-party state if not for Proposition 187 and the follow-up initiatives, and says the GOP’s Latino problem could extend beyond statewide contests to more than 20 House races around the country.
“It’s not just an issue at the presidential level,” said Barreto, who predicted Republicans would lose seats in 2014 and control of the House in 2016 if Latino voter participation continues to grow apace and the party sticks to its hard-line stance on immigration.
The full report can be read here, along with the complete slide presentation.
Twitter: @markzbarabak
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