By the numbers
Welcome to your Trail Guide, a daily tour through the twists and turns of the 2016 presidential campaign. It's Friday, July 17 and here's what's we're watching:
- Elizabeth Warren issues warning on Wall Street's revolving door
- Rand Paul is rebooting his campaign for the liberty crowd
- Scott Walker is testing his national appeal
- Jeb Bush is distancing himself from Donald Trump
- Hillary Rodham Clinton is showing her liberal limits
- Clinton and the rest of the Democratic field will share a stage in Iowa
Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Walker
and others make their pitch to religious conservatives
CNN has obtained a 51-slide PowerPoint presentation detailing Sen. Ted Cruz super PAC's strategy. The path to victory for the Texas senator is in using "wedge issues" to boost turnout among conservatives, according to the presentation created by Keep the Promise. The group relentlessly mocks former GOP nominee Mitt Romney as a "loser" who ran a hapless campaign. Check out the full CNN story below.
New research out Friday shows that Republicans will need a larger slice of Latino voters than previously thought if they hope to win the White House in 2016, creating an even tougher hurdle for the eventual nominee.
Thanks to changing demographics, the conventional math that once said the GOP would need to win a minimum of 40% of the Latino electorate no longer holds.
Now, data suggests that Republicans will need as much as 47% of Latino voters -- nearly twice the share that Mitt Romney is believed to have captured in 2012.
Put another way: 47% is the new 40%. And it is a daunting number.
"It's very, very, very basic: Every single year, you need a little bit more of the Latino vote," said Matt Barreto, UCLA political science professor and co-founder of the polling firm Latino Decisions. "It's just math."
The research is based on demographic changes and voter preferences emerging at a time when older, white voters who have powered Republican nominees are fading. The growing Latino electorate is expected to surpass 10% of all voters in 2016, and younger white voters are trending toward Democrats.
Warren delivers a message to Clinton: Stay clear of Citibank
Sen. Elizabeth Warren did not mention Hillary Clinton by name, but the Massachusetts Democrat had some strong advice for her: Don't get to close to Citibank.
“I think anyone running for that job, anyone who wants the power to make every key economic appointment and nomination across the federal government,” Warren said “should say loud and clear that they agree: We don't run this country for Wall Street and mega corporations. We run it for people.”
The remarks came amid one of Warren's more impassioned addresses, delivered Friday at the Netroots Nation conference in Phoenix. Warren has addressed the ultra-liberal group five years in a row and is perhaps more popular among them than anywhere in the country. During last year's conference, many in the crowd wore hats and waved signs urging her to run for president.
This year it was clearer that she does not plan to run. But she wants to continue to hold sway on the likely Democratic nominee, Clinton. Her speech was laced with populist policy goals -- including an increase in the minimum wage, the expansion of Social Security benefits -- and the refrain “America is progressive.”
“I'm here today because there's one thing I know: You don't get what you don't fight for,” Warren said.
Warren also recited a litany of former Citibank officials who hold key spots in the Obama Administration and a reminder of the group's sway in inserting a provision to loosen Dodd-Frank financial regulations inserted into last year's spending bill.
"Wall Street insiders have enough influence in Washington already without locking up one powerful job after another in the Executive Branch of our government,” she said. “Sure, private sector experience can be valuable -- no one ever said otherwise -- but there is a point at which the revolving door compromises public interest. And we are way beyond that point.”
The Times' Joe Tanfani reported on the Clinton campaign's high burn rate earlier this week. But this story from Peter Nicholas of the Wall Street Journal really illustrates the point. Using FEC reports, Nicholas compared Clinton's spending to that of her top rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders. The contrasts are striking.
"Mrs. Clinton spent nearly $3.7 million on campaign salaries; Mr. Sanders, $112,000. Her campaign spent more than $900,000 on polling in the quarter that ended June 30; Mr. Sanders, $0."
With fundraising sagging, Sen. Rand Paul is returning to his libertarian roots, reports the Times' Lisa Mascaro.
"With 15 GOP candidates already in the race, Paul's campaign is betting it's better to be loved by a few than liked by many, particularly in a fractured field."
Next week's New Yorker
Former Obama advisor Dan Pfeiffer is explaining why Sen. Bernie Sanders isn't the next Barack Obama. Sanders' campaign is more like the rise-and-fall efforts of Bill Bradley, and to a lesser extent Howard Dean, Pfeiffer writes in the Washington Post.
"Polls show that he's doing well with liberal voters and struggling everywhere else, and he has negligible support and limited name identification among black and Latino voters."
And for this story on Sanders and gun control, I talked to Dean about comparisons between his and Sanders' campaigns. Dean argued that the Democratic party has changed in the intervening years, so much so that Sanders isn't running against the party but with it. From my story:
"Dean, who backs Clinton, dismissed comparisons between his campaign and Sanders' bid. Aside from their shared home state and plain-spoken styles, there's not much there, he said. His campaign was about pushing his party to the left, on the war in Iraq as well as healthcare and economic issues. “I was really running against the Democratic Party and Bernie is not -- the Democratic Party has become much more populist.”
California donors have provided strong backing to several candidates in the crowded field of Republican presidential hopefuls, although none have come close to the cash pile amassed here by Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Hewlett-Packard Chief Executive Carly Fiorina raised significant chunks of their fundraising totals from donors dotting Orange County, the Central Valley and other traditionally Republican areas, according to fundraising reports the campaigns released this week.
Hillary Rodham Clinton's first town hall in New Hampshire Wednesday was quirky, parochial, contentious and revealing, reports the Times' Mike Memoli.
"Opening herself to the unpredictability of a New Hampshire town hall audience Thursday, Hillary Rodham Clinton signaled the limits of her willingness to bend to liberal Democrats' wishes by refusing to commit to a ban on fracking."
"'That may not be a satisfactory answer to you, but I have to take the responsible [approach],' she said. 'We still have to run the economy. We still have to turn on the lights.'”
The Times' Seema Mehta on Wednesday caught up with former Florida governor Jeb Bush in San Francisco, where he briefly paused his tech sector outright to send a message to an even more critical potential constituency: Latinos. Bush criticized Donald Trump for his comments on immigrants and put some distance between him and the man polls show at the top of the GOP field.
“I think candidates ought to lay out proposals to solve problems rather than basically prey on legitimate fears and concerns,” Bush told reporters.
When Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker on Friday wraps up his campaign launch tour in Iowa Friday, he's not just returning closer to home -- he's closer to his comfort zone. The Times' Noah Bierman reports that Walker's challenge this week was to demonstrate his appeal outside his Midwestern base, in South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire.
There were hits and misses, Bierman reports, noting some of Walker's stump speech just didn't translate.The governor's favorite anecdote about coupon cutting in Kohl's department store drew a few chuckles, Bierman writes.
"But the details, including references to the 'Kohl's cash' coupons found in his wife's purse, did not spark the same knowing nods that they did during his announcement speech in Wisconsin, where the chain is based and is a more entrenched symbol of middle-class culture."