Why GOP voters continue to favor Trump, despite his legal troubles

For years, he claimed his enemies would come after him.

The criminal indictments that rained down on former President Trump this year was, for many of his supporters, the fulfillment of his prophecy. Now, in the face of these legal troubles, he has vowed to not bow to the efforts of those prosecuting him, even as he runs for president a fourth time.

His defiance has been rewarded by his followers, a recent poll shows. Despite his legal troubles, he is still the top pick among Republicans for the 2024 presidential race.

Hello, I’m Erin B. Logan. I cover national politics for the Los Angeles Times. This week, we are going to discuss the GOP base and their unflinching loyalty to Trump.

Loyalty, loyalty, loyalty

A New York Times/Siena July 2023 poll found that Trump is favored among likely GOP primary voters. Fifty-four percent of those polled said they would back the former president if the GOP had to choose its nominee today.

The only other candidate who came close to that figure is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 17%. Trump’s former Vice President Mike Pence and his former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley tied for third at just 3%. Thirteen percent either declined to answer the question or said they did not know who they would back.

In a vacuum, it is not shocking that most Republican voters continue to favor Trump. He enjoys name recognition from being a former reality star and president and championing right-wing agendas.

But as current and expected criminal indictments test his campaign, the data suggest his legal troubles haven’t shaken that support.

At the moment, Trump is facing four serious cases. Three of them have already brought indictments as of Tuesday afternoon. The first case came in spring by way of Manhattan Dist. Atty. Alvin Bragg who indicted Trump on charges related to an alleged hush-money scheme.

Months later, Trump was charged in a case involving his handling of classified records.

On Tuesday, Trump was indicted on four counts following a special counsel investigation into efforts to stop the transfer of power after his 2020 election loss and his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, Times writer Sarah D. Wire reported. Trump has been summoned to appear at 4 p.m. Thursday before a magistrate judge at a federal courthouse in Washington.

“All of these indictments essentially reinforce Trump’s core message that the system is rigged,” Republican strategist Doug Heye said. Trump’s core base “absolutely do not believe that he has broken the law.”

Heye argued that the order of the indictments also helped strengthen Trump’s message. In the Bragg indictment, Heye noted that Trump is being charged essentially on the “paperwork” regarding alleged hush-money payments. The other cases, in which prosecutors are investigating potential meddling in the 2020 election and his handling of classified documents, are more serious crimes.

“This has given Trump the ability to dismiss [other cases],” Heye said.

Though Trump would likely have relied on the same arguments if the other indictments came first, Heye believes they may not have been as effective.

“It wouldn’t have started with that sense of it being mired in politics,” he said. “Not just by the base, but people outside the base.”

The latest from the campaign trail

— Trump will speak at a luncheon on Friday, Sept. 29, at the California Republican Party’s fall convention in Anaheim, Times writer Seema Mehta reported. The state’s primary, which is scheduled to take place on March 5, is expected to draw significant attention because with 169, California contributes the most GOP delegates of any state in the nation.

— Douglas Frank‘s more than 50 speeches in California and hundreds more across the country are part of a multi-pronged effort by the election denial movement to make a significant impact on future elections by changing state laws, training candidates and — in his case — organizing volunteers to challenge local results and voter rolls, Times writer Sarah D. Wire reported.

— Former Vice President Mike Pence pledged to fight harder to limit abortion access and called for more religious people to get involved in politics at a gathering of more than 800 mostly Catholic conservatives in Napa Valley Thursday afternoon, Times writer Faith E. Pinho reported.

The view from Washington

— Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. says Congress lacks the power to impose a code of ethics on the Supreme Court, making him the first member of the court to take a public stand against proposals in Congress to toughen ethics rules for justices in response to increased scrutiny of their activities beyond the bench, the Associated Press reported.

— A severe health crisis for either California Sen. Dianne Feinstein or Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) could change the direction of the nation, Times writer Cameron Joseph reported. None of America’s oldest leaders show signs of stepping away anytime soon, despite a long history of lawmakers who end up remaining in office through physical and mental decline.

— The Pentagon is pulling 1,100 active duty troops from the U.S.-Mexico border it deployed earlier this year as the government prepared for the end of asylum restrictions linked to the pandemic, the Associated Press reported.

The view from California

— Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and the city’s negotiators have struck a deal to provide an extensive package of raises and bonuses to about 9,000 officers, as part of her larger effort to rebuild the ranks of the Los Angeles Police Department, Times writers David Zahniser and Libor Jany reported. The agreement also includes hikes in officers’ retention pay to ensure they stay with the agency over the long term and provides a 5% boost in officers’ health insurance subsidy.

— A long-awaited outside investigation into political corruption in Anaheim made public Monday found a “potential criminal conspiracy” regarding $1.5 million in COVID-19 relief funds and alleged the city’s former mayor and the ex-head of the Anaheim Chamber of Commerce participated in “influence peddling,” Times writers Nathan Fenno and Gabriel San Román reported.

— The battle over legacy and donor admissions to college — the practice of giving special treatment to family of alumni and contributors — is about to heat up in California as critics take aim at what they see as a long-standing barrier for less privileged students to access elite institutions, Times writer Teresa Watanbe reported. State Assemblymember Phil Ting (D-San Francisco) plans to renew efforts to deny state financial aid to any college or university that gives an admissions advantage to such applicants, who research has shown are overwhelmingly white and affluent.

— More than a year after instituting the strictest water conservation orders Los Angeles has ever seen, the L.A. Department of Water and Power announced Monday that it was loosening watering rules for its 4 million customers, Times writer Hayley Smith reported. Officials attributed the change to this year’s wet winter, which boosted supplies and replenished reservoirs that had been drained by three years of severe drought.

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