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Dodgers mailbag: Is there reason to worry about Clayton Kershaw? (No.)

Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw pitches against Colorado on Friday.
Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw pitches against Colorado on Friday.
(David Zalubowski / Associated Press)
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The Dodgers are 22-16. That translates to a 94-win pace, and a welcome change from the middling days of April. The team won five in a row against the Padres and Pirates before splitting a four-game series with Colorado. The Dodgers missed a chance to snatch first place away from the Rockies, but still reside only 1 1/2 games back.

Now the team heads to San Francisco, where the Giants played well over the weekend against the Reds. Despite a wretched record, the Giants have held sway over the Dodgers thus far this season. The Dodgers have a chance to rectify that this week.

Here are the pitching matchups for this week at AT&T Park:

Monday: RHP Brandon McCarthy (3-0, 3.10 ERA) vs. RHP Matt Cain (2-1, 4.54 ERA)

Tuesday: LHP Rich Hill (1-1, 3.38 ERA) vs. LHP Ty Blach (0-2, 4.88 ERA)

Wednesday: LHP Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 2.43 ERA) vs. RHP Johnny Cueto (4-2, 4.15 ERA)

As always, there is plenty to discuss. You can send me questions on Twitter @McCulloughTimes. Let’s do this.

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So, I actually think this is a relevant question, even if it requires some perspective. Before we dive into what ails Clayton Kershaw, let’s assess how he has performed thus far.

Here is, heading into Sunday’s games, where Kershaw ranked among National League pitchers:

Innings: First

Earned-run average: Third

Fielding-independent earned-run average (FIP): Fifth

Expected fielding-independent earned-run average (xFIP): First

Wins above replacement (FanGraphs version): Tied for first (with Zack Greinke!)

Wins above replacement (Baseball-Reference): Eighth (gasp!)

Strikeout rate: 11th

Walk rate: Second

Strikeout-to-walk ratio: Second

Walks plus hit per inning (WHIP): Third

Kershaw has been, by both conventional and advanced metrics, fantastic in 2017. He remains the best pitcher in baseball. You could make a case that Chris Sale is more effective on a per-inning basis, but starters aren’t judged like relievers. Distance counts and so does reliability. No other pitcher can compete with Kershaw’s resume.

Still, Kershaw judges himself by a higher standard than his peers. He threw seven innings of two-run baseball in Colorado on Friday, and afterward sounded relieved he did not get plastered.

So what’s different in 2017? His strikeout rate and his homer rate look like the only major deviations from the usual Kershaw season — and three of the seven homers he has allowed occurred on one night at Coors Field.

The strikeout rate is slightly more troubling. Kershaw is producing swinging strikes 11.8% of the time, down a tad from 2016 (15.3%) and 2015 (15.9%). That means more balls in play, which means more hits, which means longer innings, which means more stress, which means a less productive pitcher.

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The main issue, in discussion with both rival evaluators and Dodgers officials, is Kershaw’s lackluster slider. The pitch has been his most effective offspeed pitch in years past, often more devastating than his curveball. Mastery of the pitch has been elusive this season.

Chad Moriyama, a highly rational Internet troll, wrote a sharp analysis of the issues with Kershaw’s slider a couple weeks ago on Dodgers Digest. The essential problem is the pitch is moving less. In the past, when Kershaw buried a backfoot slider to a right-handed batter, the pitch darted down and in after it departed the hitter’s sight. Now, with less movement, it lands closer to the strike zone, actually more like a cutter than a slider.

Here is the slider’s value in runs above average, according to FanGraphs:

2014: 21.5 runs above average.

2015: 15.7

2016: 24.0

2017: -0.1

After Kershaw’s outing on Friday, manager Dave Roberts mentioned Kershaw’s ongoing quest to sharpen the slider. Once he recaptures that, Roberts explained, his level of dominance would rise. Until then, the Dodgers will settle for this version of Kershaw. He is as good as it gets.

It is possible that Alex Wood, if he keeps striking out 10 guys per night, will make somewhere in that range. Brandon McCarthy also has a shot, assuming he can avoid injury. But I would be surprised if anyone besides Clayton Kershaw makes more than 27 starts. The Dodgers are trying to be proactive in keeping their pitchers fresh, and so between the 10-day disabled list and usage of minor-league options, they’ll try to continue this pattern.

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Here is your periodic reminder that the Dodgers have a very good bullpen.

Their 2.90 ERA, as a group, is tied with Chicago as the best in the National League. Their collective 10.89 strikeouts per nine innings is also the best in the league.

The Dodgers do not need to trade starting pitchers to acquire middle relievers. They should probably stop using Sergio Romo in leverage situations, though.

The production of Cody Bellinger would have to take a serious dive for the Dodgers to consider ever sending him to the minors again. He is here to stay.

Rich Hill is scheduled to start on Tuesday in San Francisco.

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1. Yes. The Dodgers have the prospects and the money necessary to trade for pretty much any player who will be on the block this summer.

2. Lorenzo Cain would fit in fine. He is a pleasant fellow to be around.

3. I’m not sure the Dodgers would sacrifice multiple years of Puig for only a few months from Cain, especially given Cain’s injury history. I’m also not sure the Royals would want to take a chance on Puig, given his prior clubhouse issues.

Good question!

First, a caveat: The usage of the word “narrative” implies that the team’s difficulty with left-handed pitchers was crafted by outside forces to tell a story about the team. That is not the case. The Dodgers had the lowest OPS in baseball against left-handed pitchers in 2016, and they struggled to hit left-handers again in 2017. That is not a story. That is fact.

Anyway.

The team has done well to reverse that trend. Heading into Sunday’s game, the Dodgers ranked 16th in baseball with a .700 OPS against left-handers. That fits the hopes of the front office heading into this season. This area cannot be considered one of the club’s strengths. But it is not an Achilles’ heel.

Justin Turner has played a large role in the improvement. He is the team’s best right-handed hitter, and he had a massive reverse split in 2016. He was batting .326 with an .853 OPS against lefties heading into Sunday. The team is also getting better production from Enrique Hernandez and Austin Barnes. Franklin Gutierrez and Chris Taylor have been helpful. And the team has been without Logan Forsythe, one of their primary off-season acquisitions to help the situation against lefties, for nearly a month.

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I suppose I could go through the trouble of emailing scouting director Billy Gasparino, but the answer is essentially the same for all 30 teams: Best available talent. The Dodgers have Corey Seager, and they drafted a shortstop in the first round last summer. You just pick the best players on your board.

I’ve only got team options.

I’ve only played at Parx. That may change this summer when the Dodgers visit Philadelphia. SugarHouse looks like a better bet when staying in center city. But my parents live about 15 minutes away from Parx, so when I visit them for the holidays, it makes little sense to play elsewhere. I’m a mark for Parx.

andy.mccullough@latimes.com

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Twitter: @McCulloughTimes

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