Racing! The Kentucky Derby field is set, sorta, kinda, maybe

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we congratulate Omaha Beach and Improbable for making the Kentucky Derby field.

All the Kentucky Derby preps are done. The field has mostly taken shape barring any injuries or changes of heart. Let’s look at the 20 top point (and special exemption) horses. I have to say, you had to really be impressed with Omaha Beach’s win in the Arkansas Derby. Improbable was pretty good, too, but the Richard Mandella colt was very impressive. Want to read a little more about the race? Just click here.

The question that I can’t answer is who will jockey Mike Smith choose, Omaha Beach or Roadster? It is good to be Mike Smith.

Here’s the current top 20.

1. Tacitus (150 points) Trainer: Bill Mott. Won Wood Memorial and Tampa Bay Derby.

2. Omaha Beach (137.5) Richard Mandella. Won Arkansas Derby and Rebel Stakes.

3. Vekoma (110) George Weaver. Won Blue Grass Stakes, third in Fountain of Youth.

4. Plus Que Parfait (104) Brendan Walsh. Won UAE Derby, second in Kentucky Jockey Club.

5. Roadster (100) Bob Baffert. Won Santa Anita Derby.

6. By My Standards (100) Bret Calhoun. Won Louisiana Derby.

7. Maximum Security (100) Jason Servis. Won Florida Derby.

8. Game Winner (85) Bob Baffert. Second in Santa Anita Derby and Rebel Stakes. Won Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and American Pharoah.

9. Code of Honor (74) Shug McGaughey. First in Fountain of Youth, second in Champagne Stakes and third in Florida Derby.

10. Haikal (70) Kiaran McLaughlin. Third in the Wood Memorial and first in the Gotham.

11. Improbable (65) Bob Baffert. Won Los Alamitos Futurity, second in the Arkansas Derby and Rebel Stakes.

12. War of Will (60) Mark Casse. First in Risen Star and LeComte.

13. Long Range Toddy (53.5) Steve Asmussen. First in the Rebel Stakes and Remington Springboard Mile, second in the Smarty Jones and third in the Southwest Stakes.

14. Tax (52) Danny Gargan. Won the Withers, second in the Wood Memorial and third in the Remsen.

15. Cutting Humor (50) Todd Pletcher. Won the Sunland Park Derby.

16. Win Win Win (50) Mike Trombetta. Second in the Blue Grass and third in the Tampa Bay Derby.

17. Country Home (50) Bill Mott. Second in the Risen Star, third in the Arkansas Derby and fourth in the Louisiana Derby.

18. Gray Magician (41) Peter Miller. Second in the UAE Derby and fourth in the Sham Stakes.

19. Spinoff (40) Todd Pletcher. Second in the Louisiana Derby.

20. Master Fencer (Japan qualifier). Koichi Tsunoda. Second in Fukuryu.

Where are all the horses, part 2?

On Saturday, in the web and print editions of The Times, we dug down into where all the horses have gone leading to small fields. You can read here. (It’s the second item.) There is no accurate count available (at least to me), but we can safely say that more than 100 horses have left the state.

I caught up with Ben Huffman, the racing secretary at Keeneland, on Saturday to try and find our California horses. Guess what? He has a bunch of them. He estimated that there are about 50-60 on the grounds when normally there are about 20.

“Some of the trainers have been talking about it for a few years and a couple decided to dip their toe in it here,” Huffman said. He mentioned both Phil D’Amato and Jeff Mullins having small divisions in Lexington.

But Huffman also understood the issues California racing is facing could be a factor in the increase in horses.

“There is just a lot of uncertainty [in California],” Huffman said. “So, some decided to send horses here. Now, there is no doubt that the California guys would rather stay home. But it’s a weird dynamic [out there]. It’s so important that California racing survives. But, when you talk to the trainers, you can hear the uncertainty in their voices.”

Huffman is happy Keeneland could accommodate as many horses as it did.

“If we can help, we certainly want to,” Huffman said. “But, we are not calling trainers out there. No one wants to capitalize on anyone’s misfortune.”

Santa Anita review

It was supposed to be 6 ½ furlongs down the hill, but the closure of the course for sprints made the $75,000 Mizdirection Stakes (there is one on New York today, too) made it five furlongs on the flat main turf surface for older fillies and mares.

The winner, rather easily, was Painting Corners, who took the minor stakes by 1 ½ lengths. The winning trainer was Miller and Joe Talamo picked up the ride.

Painting Corners paid $3.60, $2.20 and $2.10. Poster Girl finished second and Go Mary was third.

“I had a great trip.” Talamo said. “Peter gave me all the confidence in the world, he just said, ‘Try to break sharp if they give us a good lead go with it, if not just ride a smart race’. She broke sharp and took it to ’em.

“She’s very quick out of the gate and we got a little breather there around the turn. She could feel [Rafael] Bejarano’s filly (third place finisher Go On Mary) on her outside, but when we straightened up, she switched leads and we were gone.”

Miller was, obviously, proud of his filly.

“Joe rode a very smart race,” Miller said. “She doesn’t like to be on the rail much, but he broke sharp and he just went on with it and cut the corner and saved something for the stretch. So great ride by Joe and the whole team did a great job with this filly.

“She’s a very versatile filly and she’s been so much fun to work with. I still think she can get the longer distances. We are looking into her next race, she might possibly go to Kentucky and we’re even thinking about the Monrovia.”

Santa Anita preview

We foreshadowed this for you, but Sunday’s eight race card is as thin as any card in recent memory. Five of the eight races have only five horses entered. One had six, another has seven and the closing race has 11. Four of the races are on the turf, three of hem a mile and the fourth is five furlongs. Remember, the downhill turf course is closed the rest of the month to sprinters.

There is a graded stakes, though, the $100,000 Tokyo City Cup, for older horses going 1 ½ miles. There are five starters. Here’s how it works, the race starts on the backstretch and the horses come through the homestretch twice.

The favorite at 7-5 is Beach View for trainer Leonard Powell and jockey Flavien Prat. This will be the fifth time he has gone this distance, and third time on the dirt. He won the Cougar II Handicap at Del Mar at this distance. He has won three of his 14 lifetime races. Rafael Bejarano had been the regular jockey but elected to ride Campaign in this race.

Campaign is the second favorite at 2-1 for John Sadler. He is making a very quick turnaround, having run fourth in last Saturday’s Santa Anita Handicap. He has won three of his seven lifetime races.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 6, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 7, 11.

Big Races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday.

Aqueduct (3): $100,000 Bridgetown Stakes, 3-year-olds, 6 furlongs. Winner: Regally Irish ($5.40)

Oaklawn (4): Grade 3 $500,000 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Mitole ($2.80)

Oaklawn (5): $100,000 maiden special weight, fillies 3-years-old, 6 furlongs. Winner: Poets Dreamed ($9.80)

Keeneland (7): Grade 3 $200,000 Ben Ali Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/18 miles. Winner: Bourbon Resolution ($38.60)

Oaklawn (6): $101,000 allowance optional claiming, 3-year-olds, 6 furlongs. Winner: Pyron ($7.00)

Keeneland (8): $100,000 Giant’s Causeway Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Winner: Morticia ($6.40)

Oaklawn (7): $100,000 maiden special weight3-year-olds, 6 furlongs. Winner: Breaking News ($5.40)

Aqueduct (8): $200,000 Top Flight Invitational Handicap, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Another Broad ($11.40)

Keeneland (9): Grade 3 $200,000 Lexington Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Owendale ($27.40)

Keeneland (10): Grade 1 $350,000 Jenny Wiley Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Winner: Rushing Fall ($3.80)

Oaklawn (9): Grade 2 $750,000 Oaklawn Handicap, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Quip ($13.00)

Oaklawn (11): Grade 1 $1 million Arkansas Derby, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Omaha Beach ($5.40)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Sunday. All times PDT:

11:30 Aqueduct (3): $100,000 Plenty of Grace Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Frostie Anne (3-5)

1:46 Oaklawn (6): $150,000 Fifth Season Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Snapper Sinclair (9-5)

2:15 Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Mizdirection Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 6 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Chelsea Cloisters (9-5)

2:42 Oaklawn (8): Grade 1 $700,000 Apple Blossom Handicap, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Elate (6-5)

3:43 Santa Anita (6): Grade 3 $100,000 Tokyo City Cup, 4 and up, 1 ½ miles. Favorite: Beach View (7-5)

Handicapper search

One of our favorite people and top contributors, Bob Ike, is stepping away from the newsletter for a little while after today, before returning for Del Mar. So, I’m looking for someone to replace him. If this interests you, drop me a line. Preference will be given to those who do this for a living. Here’s the trick though. Remember how much you pay for the newsletter? Well, that’s what this job pays. There is no budget. And, very important, being reliable is the top attribute. Getting the pick to me by about 6 p.m. PDT the night before is key. So, there you have it. My inbox awaits.

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

EIGHTH RACE: No. 5 Fire When Ready (8-1)

On a card that has 49 horses entered to run in eight races, the finale is the only place to go. I will try comebacker from the Bob Hess stable that has been away since September at Los Alamitos. He can fire fresh (as shown by his runner-up try in a Cal-bred stakes in April), has trained in typical slow fashion for a barn that doesn't work them fast to get ready and should be a square price in this spot.

Saturday’s result: Mind Trick set a contested pace under three-way pressure, then spit it out badly entering the stretch and wound up last in the ninth race.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA pick of the day

FIFTH RACE: No.5 Bargaining (5-2) and No. 1 Cut (4-1)

Both horses have plenty of upside while two of the favorites, Gutsy Streak and Changing Karma, appear vulnerable. Gutsy Streak has peaked and Changing Karma could easily regress with a one-week turnabout after hard-fought runnerup try. Bargaining is only making his fourth start since November and finished nicely in last two third-place tries. Cut is the inside controlling speed and gets positive class hike after last head loss.

Final thoughts

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Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.

AN EDDIE SURPRISE stalked a bit off the rail, bid outside the pacesetter to take the lead in midstretch, kicked clear and held under urging. KITTY BOOM BOOM came just off the rail into the first turn to chase the pace, went outside a rival leaving the backstretch, split horses in deep stretch to gain the place. SEDAMAR saved ground off the pace, came out on the second turn and three deep into the stretch, was four wide a sixteenth out and edged rivals for the show. CIAO LUNA pulled her way along inside, chased along the rail, moved up some in the drive, came out for room in deep stretch and went between foes late. EMMY AND I sped to the early lead and angled in, set the pace inside, opened a lengthy lead on the backstretch, fought back in midstretch and was outfinished late for a minor award. HOT ON THE TRAIL chased outside a rival then a bit off the rail, was between foes into the stretch and through much of the final sixteenth and also was outfinished.

ALL GOOD four wide early, stalked off the rail, bid outside a rival on the backstretch, took the lead into the second turn, kicked clear and angled in on that turn, drifted out a bit then in some from the whip in the final furlong and proved much best. NOLDE broke out a bit, stalked the pace inside then a bit off the rail on the second turn, came out into the stretch and was clearly second best. AIR BOSS close up stalking the pace between horses then outside a rival leaving the second turn, came three deep into the stretch, drifted out some in midstretch, jumped track marks and came in some in deep stretch and held third. DO NOT SWIPE LEFT squeezed a bit at the start, pulled early then angled in and saved ground off the pace, came out in the stretch and lacked a further response. MARTIAL EAGLE between horses early, stalked three deep, dropped back on the second turn, angled in outside a rival into the stretch, came out at the track marks in deep stretch and weakened. BENNY THE JET sped to the early lead, set the pace inside then dueled along the rail on the backstretch, chased the winner inside on the second turn and also weakened.

BELIEVE INDEED stalked a bit off the rail then outside a rival, came out on the second turn and four wide into the stretch, bid outside under a left handed crack of the whip while drifting inward in midstretch, gained the advantage and drifted in some nearing the sixteenth pole and gamely prevailed. SHEHASTHERITESTUFF pulled her way along inside, saved ground stalking the pace, cut the corner into the stretch, bid along the rail past midstretch and continued willingly to the end. CANDY SWIRLS sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace inside, fought back on the second turn and until deep stretch and was outfinished late. INDYPENDENT DEPUTY came a bit off the rail to chase the pace, went up three deep leaving the backstretch, fell back and angled to the inside leaving the second turn, continued inside in the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. DRIFT AWAY close up stalking the pace just off the rail, bid between foes then outside the pacesetter leaving the second turn, continued between horses into the stretch, drifted out a bit in midstretch and weakened some late. SUPER PATRIOT stalked outside a rival then three deep on the second turn and into the stretch and could not offer the necessary late response.

ROGALLO chased inside then a bit off the rail, went outside a rival on the turn and three deep into the stretch and rallied under urging to collar the runner-up late. ONE EIGHTY close up stalking the pace off the rail then outside a rival leaving the backstretch and on the turn, bid alongside the pacesetter past midway on the turn to gain the lead a quarter mile out, kicked clear in the stretch and held on well but was caught late. ALWAYS FORGIVEN angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, steadied off heels leaving the turn, came out for room in upper stretch and just edged a rival for the show. CITY RAGE chased off the rail, angled in leaving the backstretch, continued inside on the turn, awaited room off heels leaving the turn, came out into the stretch, split horses in upper stretch, angled back in and was edged for third on the line. DUCHAMP settled off the rail then outside a rival, came out on the turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. SECRET COURIER sped to the early lead, set the pace off the rail, angled in and dueled leaving the turn and weakened in the drive.

R CHA CHA sped to the early lead, set the pace off the rail, inched away again into the turn, fought back off the inside under urging in the stretch and held on gamely. BISTRAYA chased off the rail then outside on the turn, came four wide into the stretch, bid outside foes in midstretch then alongside the winner to reach even terms in deep stretch and was outgamed. VERY VERY STELLA saved ground stalking the pace throughout and gained the show. TOP OF THE GAME stalked three deep between foes on the backstretch, angled in between horses on the turn, split rivals again past midstretch and was edged for third. JAN'S RESERVE close up stalking the pace four wide on the backstretch and into the turn, continued off the inside leaving the turn and three deep into the stretch, bid between foes in midstretch and was outfinished for a minor award. SHEER FLATTERY stalked between horses, steadied in tight past the three eighths pole, continued off the rail on the turn and into the stretch and lacked a rally.

PAINTING CORNERS had good early speed and set a pressured pace inside, inched away into the turn and held on gamely under some urging. POSTER GIRL (GB) chased outside a rival then a bit off the rail, came out some in the stretch and gained the place late. GO ON MARY pressed the pace three deep on the backstretch then angled in and stalked just off the rail on the turn, drifted in late and was outfinished for second. ALGORHYTHMIC prompted the pace between horses, steadied in tight into the turn, angled in on the turn, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and weakened. MONGOLIAN SHOPPER saved ground off the pace, came out a bit on the turn then angled back in, continued inside in the stretch and lacked the needed rally.

HARD NOT TO LOVE stalked early then bid four wide to press the pace on the backstretch and into the turn, angled in and took a short lead outside a rival nearing the stretch, kicked clear, drifted to the inside in the stretch and held gamely under a couple late left handed taps of the whip and steady handling. LADY NINJA chased outside a rival then off the rail, came out leaving the turn and four wide into the stretch and finished well. TIME FOR EBBY came off the inside at the gap, chased off the rail then a bit off the fence into the turn, angled to the inside, came out in upper stretch and gained the show. TIZANILLUSION stalked inside then bid along the rail to duel for the lead, took a slim advantage into the turn, fought back along the rail leaving the turn and weakened in the stretch. DEVILS DANCE sped to the early lead a bit off the rail, dueled between horses, stalked just off the inside leaving the turn and had little left for the drive. UPPERCUT prompted the pace three deep between foes, stalked leaving the turn and gave way in the stretch.

CABIN JOHN angled in and dueled outside the runner-up, had that one slip away briefly on the backstretch, re-bid alongside that rival into the second turn, took a short lead under urging in the stretch, fought back past midstretch and inched away late. KRISTI'S COPILOT had good early speed and dueled inside, edged away briefly on the backstretch, fought back inside on the second turn and in the stretch, could not match the winner late and just held second. DUKES UP settled three deep then angled in and saved ground off the pace, moved up inside leaving the second turn and into the stretch, came out in midstretch and finished well to be edged for the place. PLATINUM EQUITY chased off the rail or outside a rival, ranged up four wide into the second turn, fell back and angled in some leaving that turn, came three wide into the stretch and lacked a further response. MONGOLIAN GREYWOLF stalked inside then a bit off the rail, went up three deep into the second turn, fell back and angled in just off the inside on that turn and weakened. AVANTI BELLO chased off the rail then a bit off the fence, dropped back on the second turn and gave way.

BIG SKY LOGAN saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and again in upper stretch, bid in tight between foes and was bumped in midstretch, took the lead under a couple taps of the whip, drifted in and proved best. RIVER GOD stalked between horses, swung four wide into the stretch, put a head in front in midstretch also drifted in and saved the place. TASTEMAKER stalked three deep, went four wide into and on the second turn and five wide into the stretch and got up late for the show. TEQUILA BLANCO had speed between horses then dueled three deep, took a short lead into the stretch, was bumped between horses in midstretch and was edged late for third. SILENT MUSKETIER four wide into the first turn, stalked three deep, came out five wide into the stretch and was outkicked for a minor award. RESIDENT LIBERAL pulled and chased outside a rival then three deep on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and could not quite summon the needed late kick. FLICFLAC saved ground chasing the pace, continued inside in the stretch and could not offer the necessary late response. SOONER BETTER chased a bit off the rail then between horses on the second turn, came out some into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. MIND TRICK angled in and dueled inside, fought back on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. LIL SYDNEY dueled between horses, also fought back on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened.