Horse racing newsletter: Ron Flatter looks at horses after Jason Servis

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter, as we get a good handicapping lesson from Rob Henie.

One of Del Mar’s signature days is upon us, and only a week late. Saturday’s running of the San Diego Handicap is always the early highlight of the Del Mar meeting. It was supposed to be last week, but when 15 jockeys tested positive for the coronavirus, racing was suspended for the weekend and some of the races were moved to this weekend. It also precipitated a four-day race week, with a card scheduled for Monday.

The past three winners were Catalina Cruiser (twice), Accelerate and California Chrome. That’s a pretty good lineup. (It should be noted that Accelerate beat Arrogate, who at the time was thought to the best horse in the country. He never seemed to like Del Mar.)

This year’s name to remember is Maximum Security. He was the winner of the Kentucky Derby for about 30 minutes last year until he was the first Derby winner to be disqualified on race day. He then went on to finish second in the Pegasus (the one at Monmouth not Gulfstream), and followed with wins in the Haskell, Bold Ruler, Cigar Mile and the $20-million Saudi Cup.

But shortly after that, his trainer Jason Servis was indicted in connection with his alleged involvement in a horse doping scheme. The case is not even close to being over, although the Saudis have withheld the purse money. Maximum Security, to our knowledge, has not been implicated as a horse that was drugged. Some have pointed out that so much was thought of this horse that his very first race on Dec. 20, 2018 was a $16,000 maiden claimer.

So, if you want more to think about, keep reading as Ron Flatter digs deep into the statistics.

Justify lawsuit settles

The California Horse Racing Board has agreed to a settlement with trainer/owner Mick Ruis over the 2018 Santa Anita Derby where Justify finished first and Ruis’ Bolt d’Oro was second. Justify subsequently tested positive for scopolamine, likely through feed contamination. But the CHRB handled it in closed session and it was not made public until reported by the New York Times more than a year later. The settlement calls for the CHRB to issue a complaint and hold a hearing on the matter. If Justify is disqualified, the connections would forfeit the $600,000 purse and Justify would no longer be undefeated. Want to know more? Just click here.

OK, on to some informed opinions, meaning not mine.

The Flatter files

Yes, we just made up this new heading to this segment. Hope it works. So, it’s time for our weekly contribution from Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network. He offers up some thoughts on Maximum Security and how he might run. Ron, what are you thinking?

“Credit first where credit is due. Believe it or not, it is a constructive, stand-alone post on Twitter under the handle of one ‘Dan Gonella.’ And it ties right into Maximum Security’s comeback Saturday in the San Diego Handicap.

“The tweet came with a chart showing the names of 14 trainers and a statistical snapshot of 58 results of ‘horses that made their last start in 2020 with trainer Jason Servis.’ The numbers showed how they have done since they were scattered to those 14 other stables after Servis was indicted in March on suspicion of illegally drugging racehorses.

“Without thoroughly double-checking it, the raw data purported to show that only seven of those 58 starts resulted in victories, including two of 13 in stakes races. The conclusion was that since they were weaned from Servis’ training regimen, these horses have underperformed. Or more aptly, they overperformed for Servis.

“What the chart did not show was a snapshot of how those horses had been doing for Servis before they were moved to other barns. It also did not and could not indicate how Maximum Security will do this weekend for Bob Baffert in his first race since winning the inaugural $20-million Saudi Cup on Feb. 29.

“It is easy, however, to skim-read this information and apply it to the list of Servis’ ‘top horses’ as listed by Equibase in order of earnings in 2020.

“Skipping Maximum Security and his $11.8 million — give or take the $10 million that Saudi racing bosses sat on after the indictment — Firenze Fire is next. He was a second-out winner for Kelly Breen in the Grade 2 True North Stakes and is the 4-1 third choice Saturday in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt Handicap at Saratoga. So, he is one for two for Breen. Racing for Servis, he was 10 for 25.

“The 5-year-old gelding Chateau was the last winner that Servis had, finishing first in a March 6 allowance race at Aqueduct. That was three days before the indictment — and a little more than two weeks before the pandemic suspended racing in New York. Chateau has since finished fifth in a stakes and seventh in an allowance start for Rob Atras. He began his career with 15 straight losses for Wayne Rice and Todd Pletcher. In between he went five for 11 for Servis.

“Chateau provides that ‘a-ha’ moment. Here was the perfect example, after all, of a horse that did nothing before he crossed the threshold of the Servis barn. He has done nothing in the 4½ months since he left. So how did he overachieve for Servis? Was it smart training or something else?

“It is important to note that Servis saddled two other winners that day at Aqueduct. Fast Break broke his maiden on his fifth try and has not raced since. Kid d’Oro was also a first-time winner that day. In the past 1½ months he has finished fifth and fourth in a pair of allowances for Breen, making him one for five overall.

“Context, then, is everything. So is the breadth of information available on all the old Servis horses, including Maximum Security. Lacking actual swab tests that may or may not have been administered to every horse after every race, it is difficult to find definite patterns. Not drawing a conclusion, but what if some of Servis’ charges were doped, and some were not? And for those that might have been juiced, were they all on the same de facto prescriptions?

“That of course is the microcosm that is the mystery of medicating horses. Once that thread is pulled, then the conversation unravels into the real impact of SGF-1000, the real perception of red acid and the real meaning of picograms.

“The more we are told, the more we have to learn. The desire to make public all veterinary records that go through racing offices around the country is the ‘careful what you wish for’ object, more of a Pandora’s box than a genie’s bottle.

“The moral to this story is that when ‘Dan Gonella’ provides a juicy morsel of information on Twitter, it is important to remember there is an iceberg under that tip. And that tip may not necessarily be a command to bet against Maximum Security at Del Mar.”

Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM 204 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. He also hosts the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. On the current episode Saratoga Special’s Tom Law previews the Vanderbilt Handicap, jockey Abel Cedillo talks about his ride on Maximum Security in the San Diego Handicap, and DraftKings Sportsbook’s Johnny Avello forecasts graded stakes at Del Mar and Saratoga. To listen, just click here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

It’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). Today’s analysis comes from the first race at Del Mar and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“The opener is a maiden special weight at a mile on the turf. Top selection is BIG TALKER (#5). Regardless of whether the race is on the turf or the main track, the mile assignment is tough for a debut runner, which is what Mike Smith is asking of this 2-year-old on Saturday, and more often than not, runners over this flat mile distance, they try hard and fire. Why is it tougher? Races at say, 1 1/16 miles, are more methodical, often with an easier pace scenario, allowing horses to find their rhythm and get comfortable. Mile races, though only slightly shorter, are different. The pace is usually quicker early as runners look to secure a nice spot into the first turn, while it’s a distance which appeals to both sprinter types early, and also routers during the late stages. It’s a tough assignment, so when a competent trainer such as Tim Yakteen goes long like this, it’s usually a good sign, after all, there’s nothing worse than risking injury if the horse is short, or allow ‘em to lose confidence if the horse just isn’t very good. The presence of Smith likely confirms our thinking that this one is ‘well meant,’ the two most important words when looking at first-time starters. By the same logic of all we just discussed, first-timer CAISSON (#6) for Richard Mandella, so good with placing his runners, especially when going long at first asking, with his ‘go to jock’ up in Flavien Prat, and it’s so easy to find this son of War Front getting to the wire first.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 5-6-3

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): none

“Negative Notes:

“8 Dyn O Mite — Often times a horse closing in a dirt sprint gets played going longer and their late kick fizzles, running evenly down the lane in mediocre fashion. Point being, we demand value with closing types stretching out, where the illusion of closing going shorter, often doesn’t translate well when going two turns.

“First Timers:

“3 Rombauer — Working well for McCarthy, while Hernandez has been the buzz jock in recent days, super talented now getting his share of mounts. Interesting with a price attached.

“TOP PICK: BIG TALKER (#5 4-1 Smith)

“SECOND CHOICE: CAISSON (#6 7-2 Prat)”

The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at www.westcoasthorseracing.com. It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.

Del Mar review

There were a couple of stakes Friday; let’s look at them.

$125,000 Fleet Treat Stakes: This was a Cal-bred race for 3-year-old filly Cal-breds going seven furlongs on the dirt. There were only four starters and Big Sweep set up in a perfect stalking position and then made a move on the far turn and won by an effortless 2 ¼ lengths.

Big Sweep paid $4.60 and $3.00. Been Studying Her was second, followed by Smiling Shirlee and Loud Loud Mysic.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say.

Mark Glatt (winning trainer): “The cutback in distance certainly helped today, but this filly will go long, she’ll get a distance. She might run long on the dirt, but if it turns out that she’s just a really good sprinter, so be it. But we’re pretty anxious to get her on the grass. Flavien [Prat] thinks the dirt seems to get away from her a little bit and with a little more sure footing on the turf she might be even better.”

Prat (winning jockey): “It was a good race for us. She broke well and traveled well all the way around. She was relaxed in the early part, then at the half-mile (pole) she began to pick it up. I hit her with the whip one time, but that was it. She gave me a good kick.”

$65,000 Daisycutter Handicap: This lower-level stakes was for fillies and mares going five furlongs on the turf. Jo Jo Air settled nicely off the pace and angled in off the rail to win by a neck in the stretch.

Jo Jo Air paid $9.20, $4.80 and $3.60 for trainer Wesley Ward and jockey Prat. Lighthouse was second, and Tomlin finished third. It was Prat’s fourth win of the day.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say.

Blake Heap (assistant to winning trainer Wesley Ward): “She shipped in from Kentucky before this was scheduled for last week (Saturday, July 18). So, when it got [postponed], we’ve had her here for two weeks now. The extra week gave her time to acclimate and get a work over the [turf] course and it worked out really well. We knew the three (Stealthediamonds) was going to go fast early so I just told [Prat] to see how she breaks and save some running for the last. She’s going back to Kentucky on Monday and Wesley will decide where she goes from there.”

Prat: “It all fell into place. I watched videos of her races. She broke well and relaxed. We were right in behind the favorite (Stealthediamonds) and I felt good. Then she gave me her big kick. A good race for her.”

Del Mar preview

We’ve already talked some about Saturday’s 11-race card starting at 2 p.m. but let’s get in the weeds about it. It’s pretty darn good with two graded stakes and a very minor stakes. There are four allowance/optional claimers and two maiden specials. Five of the races are on the turf.

Time to preview the stakes.

$65,000 Smiling Tiger Stakes: This one is for 3-year-olds going six furlongs. The favorite, at 6-5, is Vertical Threat for trainer Richard Baltas and jockey Heriberto Figueroa. He finished sixth in his first race and then won his second race by six lengths. Ragtime Blues is the second choice at 7-5 for Bob Baffert and Mike Smith. He has two wins and two seconds in four starts including a second in the Grade 3 Lazaro Barrera. Post is around 2:30 p.m.

Grade 2 $150,000 San Clemente Stakes: Ten 3-year-old fillies will be going a mile on the turf in the first of two graded stakes. Laura’s Light is the 3-1 morning-line favorite for Peter Miller and Abel Cedillo. She has two Grade 3 wins in her six lifetime races. She has won four times. Last out was a win the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes at Santa Anita on May 30.

The second favorite is Warren’s Showtime at 7-2 for Craig Lewis and Jorge Velez. She has won five of 10 races and is four of six on the turf. Last out was a win in the Melair Stakes on the dirt. Warren’s Showtime was also entered in Friday’s Fleet Treat Stakes, but scratched, so the connections have higher expectations for her. Post is in the 6 p.m. range.

Grade 2 $150,000 San Diego Handicap: This is the big one of the day for horses going 1 1/16 miles. There are six high-quality horses in it, so it should be good. We talked about Maximum Security up top, so all that’s left to say is he’s even money and Cedillo gets the mount after Luis Saez tested positive, and even if he didn’t, wouldn’t be able to come from out of town to ride at Del Mar. He’s been OK’d to ride at Saratoga after a successful quarantine. Maximum Security has won eight of 10 lifetime.

Higher Power is the second choice at 7-2 for John Sadler and Prat. He hasn’t won since last year’s Pacific Classic but is coming off a second in the Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita, beaten by Improbable. He was third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 8, 5, 7, 7, 9, 10, 12, 10, 10, 6, 10.

Bob Ike’s DM pick of the day

ELEVENTH RACE: No. 8 Sassyserb (8-1)

Away since March, sophomore filly from the Richard Baltas stable cuts back to a much better distance for her and worked a bullet over this turf course in her most recent drill. She catches vulnerable morning line favorites to her inside, will be tactically placed under top turf rider Flavien Prat, so the price looks right for connections that win a lot of races together.

Friday’s result: Lincoln City ($11.40) got the perfect rating trip we hoped for while sitting behind the leaders from rail, split horses at top of the stretch, then came away through the final 100 yards to easily prove best.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ciaran Thornton’s DM pick of the day

RACE ONE: No. 2 Gone Rogue (6-1)

I am sticking with Umberto Rispoli again Saturday with his ride in the first race for trainer Dan Blacker. This is a Qatar Racing horse and they do very well with their horses at Del Mar. First time Rispoli has been a great betting angle this year for us. Blacker also moves to turf for the second career race and goes first time route. This trainer is one for one so far at the beach and from his small stable is winning an impressive 23% on the year. The key for me is Rispoli is riding — he is two of three for this trainer so this tells me they mean business Saturday. The 6-1 value is just right.

Friday’s result: Big Dress looked great for half a race. Not an impressive debut to say the least. City Rage came on a little too late and ran fourth. Rispoli will win for us on Saturday.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times Pacific.

11:03 Woodbine (3): Grade 3 $125,000 Marine Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Shirl’s Speight (6-5)

11:18 Saratoga (3): Grade 2 $200,000 Ballston Spa Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Sistercharlie (2-5)

12:47 Woodbine (6): $123,200 maiden special weight, 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Tizlegal (3-1)

1:53 Woodbine (8): Grade 3 $125,000 Selene Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Merveilleux (8-5)

2:26 Woodbine (9): $101,200 allowance, fillies and mares 3 and up, 7 furlongs on the turf. Favorite: Millennium Force (3-1)

3:16 Saratoga (10): Grade 1 $250,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Volatile (4-5)

6:00 Del Mar (9): Grade 2 $150,000 San Clemente Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Laura’s Light (3-1)

6:30 Del Mar (10): Grade 2 $150,000 San Diego Handicap, 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Maximum Security (1-1)

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE SIX: No. 5 Piety (5-1)

He just upset a quality cast of rivals 28 nights ago in his second start for this shed row after encountering a much-troubled journey in his first foray prior for these connections. In that outing, this gelding broke a step slow and outward to give the favorite Hawks Valentine a head start. From there, Piety put forth a big turn of foot to reach contention past the gap prior to blowing past Hawks Valentine and Co. to hit the wire first. The figure earned in that event puts him right there against this tougher cast.

Now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.