Horse racing newsletter: Jon White’s penultimate Kentucky Derby rankings

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome to our horse racing newsletter as we appear as if we will finally get the Justify controversy behind us by the end of the year.

A ton of local news. Let’s get to it.

--Justify case back in the news: The California Horse Racing Board said, after two years, it is filing a complaint against Justify for a drug positive for scopolamine after winning the Santa Anita Derby. It’s all about purse money at this point. Trainer Bob Baffert will not face a complaint because the evidence clearly points to environmental contamination. We’ve got a big long story about this. Just click here.

--History making CHRB appointment: The CHRB is back up to its full complement of seven members, as Gov. Gavin Newsom named Brenda Davis as the first African American woman to the Board. In addition, Wendy Mitchell was re-appointed. For more, just click here.

--Del Mar was listening: Regular readers of the newsletter have followed my snarky listing of sunset on each day the track has run 11 races. On Thursday, they decided they would roll back the start time for the final three days of the meeting, Sat. Sept. 5, Sun. Sept. 6 and Mon., Sept 7, to 1 p.m. Now, the reality is our constant reminder that the days are getting shorter likely had no impact on its decision. It just took the track longer than newsletter readers to figure out it wasn’t going to work. Add in what will no doubt be an extended break during Saturday’s racing for the Kentucky Derby, and racing in the gloaming was going to be racing in the dark.

--Doesn’t John Lies have enough to do?: This week is the last week at Del Mar for pinch-hit race caller Larry Collmus, who by all standards has done a terrific job subbing for Trevor Denman. But Collmus has to answer to a higher power next week, NBC. He’ll be headed to Churchill Downs to call the Kentucky Derby. So, who will replace him? I guess if you read the lead-in to this item, you already now. Yes, John Lies, will be the race caller in addition to being the morning-line maker taking over this year from the retiring Russ Hudak. Lies is not at rookie at being the voice of the track. He also calls at Will Rogers Downs and Fair Meadows Tulsa, both in Oklahoma, so he’s used to calling races without big crowds. In case you wondered, at those two tracks, in addition to race calling and doing the morning line, he’s also the racing secretary. Denman is scheduled to return to Del Mar for the Fall meeting.

--New look Santa Anita: It looks as if using the hillside turf course for sprints is something that is forever gone. Santa Anita has started construction on a new turf chute parallel to the seven-furlong dirt chute so the track can add 6 ½ furlong turf races to the program. It currently runs five and 5 ½ furlong races. There will be a dirt cross-over at about the five-furlong pole but it will be early in the race where the horses should not have a lot of momentum going at that time. The chute will be 80 feet wide and 800 feet long. It will be ready for use on the traditional winter/spring opening day of Dec. 26. The project is being managed by Dennis Moore, considered the best in the business at track maintenance.

“This new turf chute gives our Racing Office great deal more programmability,” Aidan Butler, Santa Anita’s big boss, was quoted as saying in the news release. “By that I mean that we’ll have significantly more options and the turf will now be more available to horses of various classifications.”

In case you didn’t know, when people are quoted in news releases, it’s not as if they ever spoke those words. They are carefully crafted to spell out the safest message. But, we actually think Aidan said those words because media head Mike Willman would never use a word like “programmability.” If you want to read the full release, just click here.

Now, on to the good stuff.

Jon White’s Kentucky Derby rankings

As always, we’re lucky to have top expert Jon White take a look at what’s happening on the Triple Crown trail. Jon makes the morning line at Santa Anita, he’s a licensed steward, and he’s the preeminent historian on racing. We’re lucky to have him. So, here are his Kentucky Derby rankings, brought courtesy of Xpressbet.com.

“Perfect.

“That was how veteran trainer Barclay Tagg described Tiz the Law’s latest workout, which was delayed by one day because of a wet track.

“Perfect also happens to be what Tiz the Law has been so far in 2020. He is No. 1 in my Kentucky Derby rankings.

“Last Sunday morning at Saratoga, Tiz the Law was the very first horse to step on the main track just after it opened at 5:30 a.m. Exercise rider Heather Smullen was aboard the New York-bred Constitution colt. ‘It was a little dark and he wasn’t quite as focused going down the backside,’ Smullen told NYRA communications. ‘At the three-eighths pole, I took my stick out. He stayed nice and straight. I never had to ask him. At the eighth pole, he saw a horse. I didn’t have to do anything. He finished up his work. Galloping out, he just kept going.’

“Tiz the Law was credited with an official clocking of :59.47 for his five-furlong drill. He reportedly galloped out six furlongs in 1:12.80 and went on out seven furlongs in 1:26.00.

“Tagg was pleased because he felt that Tiz the Law ‘went fast enough, but not too fast. It was a little quicker than usual, but it wasn’t too quick for him. He’s a pretty fast horse.’

“Tiz the Law has been fast enough to win all four of his starts this year and he gets the job done in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby, he will have a chance in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course on Oct. 3 to add his name to the distinguished list of Triple Crown winners.

“According to Tagg, who won the 2003 Kentucky Derby with the New York-bred gelding Funny Cide, the plan is for Tiz the Law to have his final workout prior to the Kentucky Derby on either Saturday or Sunday at Saratoga. He will be flown to Kentucky on Monday.

“Honor A.P., who is No. 2 in my rankings, worked five furlongs for trainer John Shirreffs last Saturday afternoon at Del Mar before the first race. Mike Smith was in the saddle. Smith has ridden Honor A.P. in each of his races has the call to do so again in the Kentucky Derby. Shirreffs and Smith teamed up to win the 2005 Kentucky Derby with Giacomo, who paid $102.60 for each $2 win ticket.

“According to Shirreffs, is scheduled to work before Del Mar’s first race Saturday under Smith.

“Honor A.P. and three other Southern California-based Kentucky Derby runners are scheduled to be flown to Louisville on Monday. Other passengers on the plane are to be the Bob Baffert-trained duo of Authentic and Thousand Words, plus the Peter Eurton-trained Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Storm the Court.

“As for Honor A.P.’s workout last Saturday, he was timed in 1:00.20 for five furlongs before galloping out six furlongs in a strong 1:11.40. The interior fractions were :12.00, :24.00, :36.20 and :47.60. ‘Another good workout,’ Smith said to Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman. ‘He galloped out really good past the wire. He had a lot of energy. I had a hard time pulling him up.’

“Honor A.P. has yet to finish worse than second. In his most significant win, Honor A.P. won the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby by 2 3/4 lengths on June 6. He then finished second as a 1-5 favorite to Thousand Words in Del Mar’s 1 1/16-mile Shared Belief Stakes on Aug. 1.

“Thousand Words, who is No. 5 in my rankings, worked last Sunday at Del Mar. The Florida-bred Pioneerof the Nile colt, with exercise rider Juan Ochoa, worked five furlongs in 1:00. Thousand Words had ‘an extensive gallop-out,’ according to Privman. Baffert timed Thousand Words galloping out six furlongs in 1:12.20, seven furlongs in 1:25.00 and one mile in 1:39.80. ‘Real strong. He’s doing very well right now,’ Baffert was quoted as saying.

“Authentic, who is No. 6 in my rankings, was slated to have a workout this past Monday at Del Mar, but Baffert told Ochoa via radio to abort the work shortly after it had begun, according to Privman. There was an incident near the finish line involving Irreproachable, a 4-year-old gelding trained by Phil D’Amato. Irreproachable, who had raced twice without winning, became only the second horse catastrophically injured in a workout at Del Mar this summer. There have been no race deaths this meeting.

“On Tuesday, Authentic drilled one mile under Ochoa in 1:38.60. ‘He went nice, very nice,’ Baffert told Privman. ‘He’s the forgotten horse.’

“Authentic has posted four wins and a second from five lifetime starts. After finishing second as the 1-2 favorite to Honor A.P. in the Santa Anita Derby, the Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt won the 1 1/8-mile Haskell Invitational by a nose over Ny Traffic.

“Many are not bullish on Authentic’s chances to win the Derby because of skepticism he can win a race that far. In the Haskell, Authentic had a 2 1/2-length lead with a furlong to go, but then goofed around in the final furlong and nearly got nailed at the wire.

“Tiz the Law is expected to be the heaviest Kentucky Derby favorite in many years. Point Given was the 9-5 favorite when he finished fifth in 2001. Monarchos won that year at odds of 10-1. It appears Tiz the Law is going to be a shorter price than Point Given, seemingly from 4-5 to 6-5. The last odds-on favorite was Arazi, who in 1992 finished eighth at odds of 9-10 when Lil E. Tee won at 16-1.

“Honor A.P. and Art Collector likely will battle for second-favoritism. The belief here it’s probably going to be Art Collector.

“Art Collector, like Tiz the Law, is four for four this year. He worked five furlongs in :49.10 last Friday on the synthetic surface at the Skylight Training Center, 27 miles from Churchill Downs.

“Trained by Tommy Drury Jr., Art Collector is scheduled to have his final workout before the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. The Kentucky-bred Bernardini colt arrived in Louisville on Wednesday.

“On Thursday, Art Collector galloped 1 1/2 miles on Churchill’s main track. ‘Brian Hernandez Jr., the colt’s regular jockey, was aboard for the gallop because regular exercise rider James Lopez was unavailable due to coronavirus-related protocols,’ Daily Racing Form’s Marty McGee reported. Hernandez will be Art Collector’s jockey in the Kentucky Derby.

“On July 11, Art Collector won Keeneland’s 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass Stakes by 3 1/2 lengths. Finishing second was the talented filly Swiss Skydiver, who then won the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 15. After the Blue Grass, Art Collector registered a 3 1/4-length victory in the Ellis Park Derby on Aug. 9.

“While a wet surface at Saratoga caused Tiz the Law’s scheduled workout to be delayed from Saturday to Sunday, Caracaro did work five furlongs at Saratoga last Saturday morning on a sloppy main track in 1:01.02. Gustavo Delgado trains the Kentucky-bred Uncle Mo colt. Runner-up in the Travers, Caracaro is No. 4 in my rankings.

“Dr. Post, who finished second to Tiz the Law in the Belmont now appears doubtful to run in the Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher indicated it is more likely that Dr Post will run in Saratoga’s Jim Dandy Stakes or be trained up to the Preakness. The Jim Dandy will be on Sept. 5, the same day as the Kentucky Derby. Inasmuch as Dr Post has not been absolutely, positively ruled out of the Kentucky Derby, I’m keeping him on my Top 10 at No. 7.

“King Guillermo, who is No. 8 in my rankings, is being asked to go into the Kentucky Derby off a daunting four-month layoff. He has not competed since finishing second in the Arkansas Derby on May 2. The Kentucky-bred Uncle Mo colt showed what he’s capable of doing off a layoff when he won the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby by 4 3/4 lengths at odds of 49-1 on March 7, his first race since Nov. 30.

“Trained by Juan Avila, King Guillermo has fired back-to-back bullet workouts at Churchill Downs. He stepped five furlongs on Aug. 15 in :59.60. It was the fastest of 46 works at the distance that morning. King Guillermo then worked five furlongs in even quicker time, zipping the distance last Saturday in :58.20. It was the fastest of 40 works at the distance. Moreover, King Guillermo reportedly galloped out six furlongs in an impressive 1:10.80 last Saturday.

“Shirl’s Speight looks like he will get into the Kentucky Derby field despite having no points. He is not on my Top 10, but he’s an intriguing wild card who has generated a buzz in Canada off his two wins in two career starts and some terrific workouts.

“Shirl’s Speight will be racing on dirt for the first time in the Kentucky Derby, He also will be asked to go 1 1/4 miles without having previously gone farther than 1 1/16 miles. That his sire, Speightstown, was a sprint champion does not exactly inspire confidence that he will appreciate the longer distance of the Kentucky Derby. But there is stamina in Shirl’s Speight’s pedigree. His dam, Perfect Shirl, won the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf at 1 3/8 miles in 2011 at Churchill Downs.

“Here are this week’s rankings for the Sept. 5 Kentucky Derby, courtesy of Xpressbet:

1. Tiz the Law (1)

2. Honor A.P. (2)

3. Art Collector (3)

4. Caracaro (4)

5. Thousand Words (5)

6. Authentic (6)

7. Dr Post (7)

8. King Guillermo (8)

9. Ny Traffic (9)

10. Max Player (10)

NOTE: Last week’s rankings in parentheses”

Del Mar preview

First off, remember this is a four-day race week for Del Mar, the same as next week. Friday’s card is nine races with the usual 2 p.m. start. (See note above.) Five of the races are on the turf. There nothing on the card to get real excited about, although there is a minor stakes, the $75,000 Tranquility Lake Stakes for fillies and mares going a mile.

Hang a Star is the 2-1 morning-line favorite for trainer Ian Kruljac and jockey Umberto Rispoli. Her last three races have been graded stakes—with fourth, fifth and second-place finishes—so this is quite the step down. She is two-for-nine lifetime.

Second choice in the five-horse race is Zusha for Gary Mandella and Abel Cedillo. Her last five races were graded stakes—finishing sixth, fifth, third, third and second—so she is also taking a big class drop. She is two-for-21 lifetime. Post is around 5:39 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 9 (1 also eligible), 6, 10 (1 ae), 7, 9, 6, 9 (1 ae), 5, 11 (2 ae).

Bob Ike’s Dmr pick of the day

THIRD RACE No. 7: He’s Like Violence (7-2)

I picked this gelding from the Mark Glatt barn the last time he ran but the sprint distance was too sharp when making his first start in a year. He got an ideal prep under his belt and looks set to stretch out and beat this field of restricted claimers going 1 1/16 miles on turf.

Sunday’s result: Drop the Chalupa (6-1) was jostled at start but lagged back where we expected him to be early, unfortunately never got out of second gear while remaining far back throughout in a very disappointing performance.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ciaran Thornton’s Dmr pick

RACE THREE: No. 6 Tromador (10-1)

Tromador steadied badly early last out on turf going a mile. Eight lengths back into the turn the horse came running on late deep stretch to run fourth, missing by less than three lengths. On the gallop out he passed the leaders. The horse gets a little more distance Friday to work with. Tromador has as much speed as the top choices and the best closing kick. Wide open race.

Sunday’s result: Happy Trails trailed nicely in second into the turn and tried to catch the leader but just did not have enough and ran third.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Los Alamitos weekend preview

Los Alamitos is the only track in California racing at night. So, let’s turn things over to marketing and media guru Orlando Gutierrez, who will tell us about things going on at Los Alamitos. Orlando, the floor is yours.

“Friday’s racing card will feature seven races starting at 6:40 p.m. starting with three races around the turn with the final four being quarter horse events on the straightaway. Governor’s Cup Futurity finalist Single Brad and California Breeders Freshman Stakes third-place finisher Flex Jet are among the talented quarter horses during the second half of Friday’s card.

“The two will meet in the sixth race, a $10,500 allowance at 300 yards. Single Brad had a troubled start in the Governor’s Cup final, as he bumped early, drifted out and faded late on his way to an out-of-the-money finish. The Foose gelding will be looking to regain the form that he displayed in one of the meet’s most impressive wins by a 2-year-old back on May 23. In winning that maiden race, he posted the fastest 300-yard time of the season by a 2-year-old in a time of :15.44. He followed with a runner-up effort in a Governor’s Cup trial won by the futurity final’s eventual winner Constituent.

“Jespinky, who ran third in the $109,000 Los Alamitos Maiden Stakes, will head the seventh race on Friday. The gray gelding by Favorite Cartel is still a maiden, but he has finished second or third in all five career starts.

“The feature events on Saturday and Sunday are handicap events named after all-time great world champion quarter horses. Saturday’s is the $25,000 Sgt Pepper Feature, which honors the 1982 world champion, while the Grade I Go Man Go on Sunday is named after the legendary three-time world champion in the 1950s.

“Ashley Garcia’s All Prettied Up is one of two talented fillies facing a quartet of geldings that include Los Alamitos Derby winner Mister Tornado and Los Alamitos Maiden Stakes winner Sass Mo Blue in Saturday’s $25,000 Sgt Pepper for 3-year-olds.

“All Prettied Up has been in terrific form, winning a pair of races while hitting the board in each of her last six starts this season. The Favorite Cartel filly also gave trainer Angela Aquino a special stakes victory when she won the Debutante Stakes on California Breeders Champions Night on July 25. All Prettied Up won the Debutante with Aquino’s nephew, jockey Oscar Andrade Jr., aboard.

“’The last time I won one of these (a stakes race on Champions Night) he was a baby,’ said Aquino referring to her nephew. ‘I think I have the picture of that race and I am holding him in the winner’s circle. He was about a year old; he was a yearling. We have come a long way.’

“Aquino is a two-time leading thoroughbred trainer at Los Alamitos and Andrade Jr. is one of the nation’s top young quarter-horse jockeys. All Prettied Up will start from the two. Martha Wells’ Fayvorite Chick is the other filly in this race. She was seventh in the Governor’s Cup Derby also on Champions Night.

“The Go Man Go at 400 yards will be headed by Grade 1 Vessels Maturity winner Chocolatito and Grade 2 Southern California Derby winner Mister Appolitical. Another runner to watch is Jess Macho Corona, who will be looking for his first Grade 1 after running second in three Grade 1s in his career, including the All American Derby and Golden State Million Futurity.”

Chris Wade’s Friday LA pick

RACE SIX: No. 6 Rulentless (8-1)

She has improved in each subsequent start for a super jockey/trainer/owner combo that does well with entrants of this ilk. In Rulentless’ last start 21 nights ago, the filly broke slow to leave her with a lot of work to do. She did finish well while under a hold to finish fifth, but that was certainly not her best effort and she should have no trouble improving off that outing. With a decent start, she should be right there for all the board placings at a nice price.

Now, the star of the show, Friday’s entries.