The U.S. is predicted to again win the most medals at the Tokyo Olympics

Olympic athletes stand in a line on the medals podium.
The women’s 1,600-meter-relay teams from Jamaica, the U.S. and Britain stand on the podium at the 2016 Olympics.
(Jae C. Hong / Associated Press)

With 100 days to go until the Tokyo Olympics, a well-known medals forecaster is calling for the most unpredictable Games ever.

Gracenote, a part of the Nielsen company, has traditionally based its predictions on results from key competitions during preceding years. With the coronavirus pandemic shutting sports down for much of 2020, there are considerably less data at hand.

Still, the latest Virtual Medal Table shows the U.S. leading all nations with an estimated 43 golds and 114 overall medals.


That total would give the Americans their seventh consecutive medals victory in the Summer Games but would be slightly down from 2016 in Rio de Janeiro.

China is expected to rebound from a mediocre showing four years ago to finish second with 85 medals. Next come Russia, competing in limited fashion while still under doping sanctions, and Japan, which figures to receive the traditional boost as host nation.

An estimated 600,000 Tokyo Olympics ticket holders outside of Japan are fighting to get elusive refunds after they were banned from attending the Games.

April 1, 2021

The Netherlands is expected to round out the top five, setting a national record with 46 medals, many from cycling and sailing.

Gracenote uses results from previous Olympics, world championships and world cups to generate its forecast. After a year’s postponement, the Tokyo Games are scheduled for July 23–Aug. 8.