Horse racing newsletter: Problems with Kentucky Derby qualifying

Hello, my name is John Cherwa, and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we have another handicapping lesson from Rob Henie.

It’s time for our weekly contribution from Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network. He offers up an interesting idea about how the Kentucky Derby field is filled. Ron, what insights do you have?

“First, the good news. The 23 horses entered in Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes were split into two divisions. Since the combined purse was doubled, each race will still be worth a full 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points for finishing first, seemingly enough to get to Churchill Downs on May 2.

“Now the bad news. There may not be room for all the ‘win and you’re in’ victors.

“It gets a little labyrinthine, but Saturday’s oversubscribed Risen Star at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans adds a 14th race, for which a win is worth 50 or
100 points on the road to the Derby. Among them are seven races starting in five weeks that also award 40 points for finishing second.

“That means that there are now 21 potential places for as many horses to get to Churchill Downs. But there are only 20 spots available.

“While single horses may and probably will collect points from two or more races, don’t forget that the early preps here in the U.S. have already put 49 horses on the qualifying list. Then there are the two invitations that are extended for the European and Japanese roads to the Derby, both superseding the American list.

“In short, it is possible to finish first in a ‘win and you’re in’ or even accumulate 50 points the hard way yet still be left in the stable while 20 other horses run for the roses. (For the record, Churchill Downs does not actually use the term ‘win and you’re in’; that is the work of us media types who are trying to keep things simple.)

“Just last year Win Win Win finished third in the Tampa Bay Derby and second in the Blue Grass, but with four weeks left in prep season he and his 50 points were on the bubble. If Anothertwistafate had won the Lexington instead of finishing second, and if Improbable, Country House, Omaha Beach and Long Range Toddy had finished 1-2-3-4 rather than 2-3-1-6 in the Arkansas Derby, Win Win Win would have been out of the Kentucky Derby.

“In 2018 there was the possibility that every horse with 40 points – including two-time prep winner McKinzie had he not bruised a hock – would have been left out if My Boy Jack had won the Lexington and a couple other dominoes had fallen a particular way in the Arkansas Derby.

“But Churchill Downs has set a dangerous precedent. What prevents the operators of big tracks from recruiting horsemen to oversubscribe other prep races while doubling their purses and cornering the market on Derby preps? In theory, as the operator of the Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, Churchill Downs could do this all over again for the Jeff Ruby Steaks and the Louisiana Derby. Gulfstream Park certainly has the horse population do the same, and on a good day so could Santa Anita.

“Now in its eighth year, the Derby points system was devised to encourage horsemen from chasing lucrative stakes purses that were once the sole criteria for filling America’s biggest race. Although it has its flaws (precocious fillies and stretching sprinters need not apply), it has raised the importance of some races that might otherwise get lost in the winter and early spring. Think Los Alamitos Futurity, Springboard Mile and Sunland Derby.

“For one day this weekend we will enjoy seeing not one but two full fields racing at New Orleans. But this summer, Churchill Downs might consider tapping the brakes on encouraging this in 2021.”

Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM 204 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. On the current episode of the Ron Flatter Racing Pod, Fair Grounds track announcer John G. Dooley previews Saturday’s two divisions of the Risen Star Stakes, and National Thoroughbred Racing Association executive Keith Chamblin talks about the impact of the Santa Anita crisis and the growth of handicapping contests. Just click here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

t’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). Today’s analysis comes from the fifth race at Santa Anita and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“This is a $25,000 N2L at 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf, and though we’re no longer handicapping the staple, 6 ½ furlong downhill turf sprints seen here for years, these shorter turf sprints are a friend of the race track, something Gulfstream Park figured out and Santa Anita has followed. These short sprints allow for quicker turn arounds, meaning, larger fields, more races, etc. Then, you throw into the mix, this 5 ½-furlong distance, about the same as going 4 1/2 furlongs on the main track, meaning, not exactly the most taxing trip. As a result, even bad runners can often hang in there going this shorter distance, creating the illusion of an evenly matched group, when the reality is, it’s simply a distance which doesn’t allow for as much separation. The large fields also act as a barrier to all styles, so, what do we mean? In a field of five or six, the race is typically slow throughout until they ask for everything in the final eighth. With so many runners, you can expect many styles, including cheap early speed, allowing those from mid-pack a legitimate look with regard to making up ground down the lane, not to mention those looking to run on from a bit further back. Top selection is TERRIBLE TED (#10). He hasn’t shown up since last April, but again, this shorter distance and surface, isn’t overly daunting, with Hector Palma bypassing the state ranks in favor of this short assignment against open company. It tells us they believe they get a good effort with the right conditions on the track rather than in the condition book. The presence of Agapito Delgadillo tells us Hector is looking for an up-close trip throughout, the only style Agapito knows. The latest half-mile blowout certainly furthers our belief they’ll be pushing close up throughout, a trip which is usually advantageous compared to this zig-zag through the faltering speed. BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (#8) fits well class-wise here, and with the return to the turf sprint distance he tried two back, Steve Miyadi also removes the blinkers while adding Geovanni Franco, a really nice fit for this one’s style, giving us two contrary styles on the track to capture this event.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 10-8-9

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): none

“Positive Notes:

“9 Raul Rosas - Hasn’t been out in over a year, then again, as we often point out, this distance allows for runners to return off a layoff, looking to fire fresh, over this short distance where horses fire off the layoff, over and over. Throw in the fact Pederson knows few are gonna wanna claim a seven year old who’s only run three times, meaning, he can place without fear of losing him.

“Negative Notes:

“12 Moonoverthebayou - This 12 hole is gonna do him no favors here.

“TOP PICK: TERRIBLE TED (#10 10-1 Delgadillo)

“SECOND CHOICE: BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (#8 5-1 Franco)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at http://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

Friday’s feature was a $59,000 allowance/optional claimer for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. It was gate-to-wire win for Der Lu for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Abel Cedillo. The winning margin was a very comfortable 3 ½ lengths.

Der Lu paid $5.60, $2.60 and $2.10. First Star, the favorite, was second followed by Kaydetre, Starr of Quality and Chickatini.

“When you ride these horses for Baffert, you try to break good and they do the rest,” Cedillo said. “She was comfortable and we had plenty left at the top of the stretch.”

Santa Anita preview

This second card of the week is nine races starting at 12:30 p.m. It’s not a great card, but also not a terrible card. There are four turf races and a Grade 2 feature, the $200,000 Sanga Monica Stakes for older fillies and mares going seven furlongs.

The favorite, at 6-5, is the popular Hard Not to Love for trainer John Shirreffs and jockey Mike Smith. She has won four-of-five races but is best known for winning the Grade 1 La Brea. Oh, she also has only one eye, losing the left one after an infection. She’s also a little nervous going into the gate. Wouldn’t you be?

Second favorite is Mother Mother, at 8-5, for Baffert and Flavien Prat. She’s only won three of 10 but has been running almost exclusively at the graded stakes level. She was third in the La Brea. Post is around 4:05 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 7, 5, 5, 6, 12, 9, 11, 5, 12.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE SEVEN: No. 2 Coast of Roan (8-1)

Coast of Roan was a value play for us last out in January. Raphael Bejarano was named to ride but Umberto Rispoli took over. After tracking the leaders into the stretch they made a very late move to run third, 2 1/2 lengths behind the winner. On the gallop out past the line he passed them all, something I like to look for. Rispoli, having ridden that horse on late notice will now be ready for the race today. Trainer Doug O’Neill cuts Roan back an eight and races the horse protected again Saturday. This horse has the top last race speed. We are getting 8-1 value today in a very wide-open race that I suggest you spread deep in your Pick 4 tickets. I also like Incredible Luck in this race as well at this good value price.

Friday’s result: Lucky Ms Jones fell asleep in the gate and was off slow. Rispoli tried to hustle the horse up but when he saw there was no chance eased and saved her for another day.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

10:50 Laurel (4): $100,000 John B. Campbell Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Monongahela (2-1)

11:18 Laurel (5): $100,000 Wide Country Stakes, fillies 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Bella Aurora (3-1)

11:51 Laurel (6): $100,000 Miracle Wood Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile. Favorite: Dreams Untold (5-2)

12:20 Laurel (7): Grade 3 $250,000 Barbara Fritchie Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Saguaro Row (9-5)

12:28 Fair Grounds (6): $100,000 Colonel Power Stakes, 4 and up, 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Fast Boat (3-1)

12:49 Laurel (8): Grade 3 General George Stakes, 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Firenze Fire (4-5)

12:59 Tampa Bay (8): $100,000 Pelican Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Killybegs Captain (5-2)

1:25 Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Broadway Stakes, NY-bred fillies and mares 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Cash Offer (2-1)

1:30 Fair Grounds (8): $100,000 Albert M. Stall Memorial Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Mitchell Road (5-2)

2:01 Fair Grounds (9): Grade 3 $200,000 Mineshaft Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Silver Dust (5-2)

2:04 Gulfstream (11): Grade 3 $150,000 Royal Delta Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Golden Award (9-5)

2:32 Fair Grounds (10): Grade 3 $150,000 Fair Grounds Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Synchrony (3-1)

3:09 Oaklawn (9): $125,000 Dixie Belle Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Specially (6-5)

3:38 Fair Grounds (12): Grade 2 $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (first division), 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Enforceable (7-2)

3:52 Golden Gate (7): $100,000 El Camino Real Derby, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Azul Coast (2-1)

4:07 Santa Anita (8): Grade 2 $200,000 Santa Monica Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Hard Not to Love (6-5)

4:12 Fair Grounds (13): Grade 2 $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (second division), 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Anneau d’Or (9-5)

Chris Wade’s LA Pick of the Day

RACE EIGHT: No. 3 Alamode (6-1)

He is a big bodied runner who lost all chance in a 110-yard event 32 nights ago when the grey leaned back at the gate opening to lose multiple lengths and basically any chance to win his fourth straight. But even after that poor start and the short distance, the 5-year-old surged strongly to almost garner an underneath exacta placing. He’s facing high quality rivals like Grade 2 finalist Jess Flashee, but Alamode has many quality and competitive numbers and can certainly keep up with these foes.

Now, the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.